How many games can teams lose?

[Bigdaddyg1]

I’m sure someone has analyzed this or projected it with the expanded playoffs starting this season but it would be interesting to see what people think- of the playoff eligible teams how many can lose 1,2 or even 3 games and still make the 12? I only say 3 as we all know somehow a 9-3 SEC team will squeak in. It’s been discussed and debated about App but can we lose a game and realistically get in? Any conference loss could make it tough to get in the Belt Championship game and most likely the highest rated G5 must win their conference. If we beat Clemson does that outweigh a home loss to Liberty?

[EastHallApp]

I think you're right. Based on last year's final rankings, no one would have been in with more than 2 losses. But I think at least some years, there will be a 3-loss team or two in the field.

As far as the G5, it's highest-ranked G5 conference champion, so the conference champion part is a requirement.

Would beating Clemson outweigh a loss to Liberty? Depends on what other G5s do. If we're assuming App goes 12-1 in this scenario, we'd obviously need Liberty to lose at least once, maybe twice. And then we'd probably need the MWC and AAC champions to have at least one loss as well.

[Yosef84]

A loss to Clemson doesn't hurt that much but a loss to Liberty (regardless of Clemson) would effectively eliminate us barring something unusual. They would be in the driver's seat and would have to lose at least 2 before we could get in. Boise and Memphis would also have to mess up.

[Bigdaddyg1]

I think there are probably 5 or so SEC teams who can drop 2 and get in, probably the same for the Big 10. Hard to say for the revamped Big12. Hard to see any 2 loss ACC getting in. No way any 2 loss G5 gets in as the best team would most likely run the table in conference. For us I think:

Loss to Clemson, run the table we are in barring some crazy year by a Memphis. Liberty would out with this scenario.

Beat Clemson, lose to Liberty and run the table- need some help and like you guys said, Liberty must lose twice.

Lose a conference game but beat the non-conference teams we would most likely need the Belt team who beats us to lose twice- tough.

[EastHallApp]

A loss to Clemson doesn't hurt that much but a loss to Liberty (regardless of Clemson) would effectively eliminate us barring something unusual. They would be in the driver's seat and would have to lose at least 2 before we could get in. Boise and Memphis would also have to mess up.

While you might be right about Liberty, I think there'd be a real debate between a 12-1 Liberty and 12-1 App if they beat us. Would a H2H win on our field outweigh what would almost certainly be a much stronger resume for App in every other way?

You'd be talking about App with a win at Clemson and going unbeaten in arguably the toughest G5 league. Versus Liberty with one of the weakest schedules in the country, no P4 opponents, a loss to someone like Jacksonville St., WKU or whoever. Does H2H take precedence over everything else, when the respective strength of schedules are not comparable?

Alternately, Liberty could be completely out of consideration at 12-1 if the loss comes in the CUSA title game.

Obviously a big hypothetical at this point. But one example of the kind of debates we'll have as long as Liberty is in the mix but their league is not good.

[AppState00_01]

I think the most likely scenario for G5, especially if app beats Liberty, is a 2 loss champion gets in.

[AppinVA]

I think the most likely scenario for G5, especially if app beats Liberty, is a 2 loss champion gets in.

Why? When we’re gonna be undefeated.

[AppState00_01]

I think the most likely scenario for G5, especially if app beats Liberty, is a 2 loss champion gets in.

Why? When we’re gonna be undefeated.

I hope so! I will be at Clemson rooting them on. Going undefeated in conference is such a tall task, though this year sets up better than any in quite a while. Please don’t let the stink be the one to spoil the run.

[NattyBumppo'sRevenge]

Obviously we’re going to be undefeated but hypothetically I think we could lose to Clemson and one conference game and as long as we win conference championship game, we’d probably be a ranked conference champion and would have a good shot to make playoffs depending on what AAC and MWC do.

[AppState00_01]

Obviously we’re going to be undefeated but hypothetically I think we could lose to Clemson and one conference game and as long as we win conference championship game, we’d probably be a ranked conference champion and would have a good shot to make playoffs depending on what AAC and MWC do.

In that scenario, likely need Boise State with 3 losses, they have a nice head start in the polls, and nice strength of schedule unless Oregon State and Washington State turn out to be average G5 teams.

[BambooRdApp]

Well, Clemson in the driver's seat for the ACC after one game. . Rambling Wreck with the win in Ireland today .

[MDaniels]

Well, Clemson in the driver's seat for the ACC after one game. . Rambling Wreck with the win in Ireland today .

That was a very good ball game. Tech offensive line really played their butts off. Tech's qb was the one that App beat in College Station 2 years ago.

[EastHallApp]

Obviously we’re going to be undefeated but hypothetically I think we could lose to Clemson and one conference game and as long as we win conference championship game, we’d probably be a ranked conference champion and would have a good shot to make playoffs depending on what AAC and MWC do.

In that scenario, likely need Boise State with 3 losses, they have a nice head start in the polls, and nice strength of schedule unless Oregon State and Washington State turn out to be average G5 teams.

Head start in the polls doesn't mean anything, because the polls aren't a factor in selecting the CFP.

[AppStFan1]

I think there are probably 5 or so SEC teams who can drop 2 and get in, probably the same for the Big 10. Hard to say for the revamped Big12. Hard to see any 2 loss ACC getting in. No way any 2 loss G5 gets in as the best team would most likely run the table in conference. For us I think:

Loss to Clemson, run the table we are in barring some crazy year by a Memphis. Liberty would out with this scenario.

Beat Clemson, lose to Liberty and run the table- need some help and like you guys said, Liberty must lose twice.

Lose a conference game but beat the non-conference teams we would most likely need the Belt team who beats us to lose twice- tough.

I went back to 2022 and there would have been two 3-loss teams in as an auto-bid so I am sure we will see 3-loss teams in there.

This is how it would have looked heading into playoff

SEC- Georgia (13-0)
Big Ten- Michigan (13-0)
Big 12- Kansas State (10-3)
ACC- Clemson (11-2)
Pac-12- Utah (10-3)

At-Large
TCU- 12-1
Ohio State- 12-1
Alabama- 10-2
Tennessee- 10-2
USC- 11-2
Penn State- 10-2
Tulane- 11-2

[AppStFan1]

Obviously we’re going to be undefeated but hypothetically I think we could lose to Clemson and one conference game and as long as we win conference championship game, we’d probably be a ranked conference champion and would have a good shot to make playoffs depending on what AAC and MWC do.

In that scenario, likely need Boise State with 3 losses, they have a nice head start in the polls, and nice strength of schedule unless Oregon State and Washington State turn out to be average G5 teams.

Head start in the polls doesn't mean anything, because the polls aren't a factor in selecting the CFP.

Exactly. I think people overlook that. In fact, if you notice the polls will try to get close to the CFP, if anything. If a team opens in the CFP at #19 but is unranked by the AP and they win that week then you will see that team rise up to at least 20-21 just to get close to the CFP. It is great to see App listed as RV or ranked just from a marketing standpoint but our place does not matter because the CFP is what they go by.

[311neers]

Well, Clemson in the driver's seat for the ACC after one game. . Rambling Wreck with the win in Ireland today .

I’d say VT or NcState is in drivers street. Clemson will be 0-2 soon enough.
Acc does not deserve a top 4 seed. They need to get rid of that.

[AppStFan1]

Well, Clemson in the driver's seat for the ACC after one game. . Rambling Wreck with the win in Ireland today .

I’d say VT or NcState is in drivers street. Clemson will be 0-2 soon enough.
Acc does not deserve a top 4 seed. They need to get rid of that.

I thought the FSU QB was heavily overrated and he showed today he is just not any good. I am very curious to see on the Clemson QB because I suspect he will be improved from last year but if he looks the same then I will like our chances.

[NattyBumppo'sRevenge]

Sim 13 baby!

[Bootsy]

A great deal of hand-wringing is happening down in Tallahassee this evening…along with not a little drunkenness. And crying.

At 7:53pm on Saturday, August 24th, I can say without hesitation that it’s an ideal time NOT to be a Seminole fan.

[AppSt94]

As it relates to App. They need to win the games that they are supposed to. The FPI says that App is favored to win 11 of those 12. Win the conference and put your record up against the other G5 champs. Beating the presumed CUSA champ makes your case to get in above that Other than that, it’s out of their hands.