Projections or expectations? Outside of Gardner Webb, who we should beat, it’s just too difficult to land on a number of wins and losses. I am looking for continued development throughout the season from the QB and OT positions on offense and the cohesiveness of the defense as a whole. If those things occur, we can end the year with a very good record. Does that mean that 6-6 is a very good record? If we start the year 1-3 and finish it 5-3, then that shows the improvement necessary to get us back to where we used to be for 2024.
Teams who are poised to bounce back - CBS
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Re: Teams who are poised to bounce back - CBS
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Re: Teams who are poised to bounce back - CBS
I’m not as hopeful as I want to be. This year could be worse that last year. We gotta replace the most important position on these field and we’re doing that with a red-shirt who’s only seen a few snaps.( or a JUCO that hasn’t been in system for even a year). We have a lot of additional key positions to fill as well (OT, nose tackle, LB’s , CB’s just to name a few) . Based on what I saw last year, it seems hard to see any “for sure” wins. I’m even unsure about GW. Remember the kids a GW are just like the kids at APP, that beat Michigan. Plus, they are local and revenge is on their minds because App didn’t want them. The schedule is really no easier than last year, even an improving ULM IS QUESTIONABLE, in my mind, since it’s on the road just after a long trip to Wyoming. Add to that ,and I hate to say it, the jury is still out on Sean Clark. I’m pulling hard but not as hopeful as I want . I’m guessing 5-7 maybe 6-6.
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Re: Teams who are poised to bounce back - CBS
Projections are based upon the best information available at a given point in time.AppSt94 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:11 amProjections or expectations? Outside of Gardner Webb, who we should beat, it’s just too difficult to land on a number of wins and losses. I am looking for continued development throughout the season from the QB and OT positions on offense and the cohesiveness of the defense as a whole. If those things occur, we can end the year with a very good record. Does that mean that 6-6 is a very good record? If we start the year 1-3 and finish it 5-3, then that shows the improvement necessary to get us back to where we used to be for 2024.
My projected ceiling and floor is 9-3 and 7-5 with 8-4 being the most likely outcome.
We play a lot of good, but not elite teams. We’ll only be a double digit dog once and a double digit favorite 3 games. Average teams would go 4-4 in the remaining games. Good teams go 6-2.
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Re: Teams who are poised to bounce back - CBS
I don’t disagree with your methodology, I do question the assumptions being made about future outcomes based on what I would call static information. An example, JMU lost a difference maker at QB, it’s best RB and most of its WR group. If we were playing them early on, I would probably favor App slightly. However, we play them in November. There are a lot of things that can happen to either team, both positively and negatively between now and then that could tip the scales in either direction come gametime.Saint3333 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 9:23 amProjections are based upon the best information available at a given point in time.AppSt94 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:11 amProjections or expectations? Outside of Gardner Webb, who we should beat, it’s just too difficult to land on a number of wins and losses. I am looking for continued development throughout the season from the QB and OT positions on offense and the cohesiveness of the defense as a whole. If those things occur, we can end the year with a very good record. Does that mean that 6-6 is a very good record? If we start the year 1-3 and finish it 5-3, then that shows the improvement necessary to get us back to where we used to be for 2024.
My projected ceiling and floor is 9-3 and 7-5 with 8-4 being the most likely outcome.
We play a lot of good, but not elite teams. We’ll only be a double digit dog once and a double digit favorite 3 games. Average teams would go 4-4 in the remaining games. Good teams go 6-2.
I do think that we will be Ok along both sides of the ball from a first team standpoint. I also don’t anticipate a lot of drop off, if any, from QB 1 to Qb 2. But you never know about the depth quality if there are injuries. That is why making a projection for an expected record at seasons end in June, seems to be discounting fluid factors that are very relevant to the outcomes.
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Re: Teams who are poised to bounce back - CBS
There may not be difference from QB1 to QB2, my concern about our success is drop from QB1 last year to QB1 this year. Yes, Chase may not be fleet of foot, however, he was pretty good spinning the ball. I do not care how we move it down the field pass or run...just get it done.
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Re: Teams who are poised to bounce back - CBS
Projections do shift you know and no one is going to burn you at the stake when making them on a message board.
Those are my preseason projections.
Last year I predicted 8-4 before the season, shifted them to 10-2 post A&M win and held on hope for 7-5 after the Texas St loss.
Still blows my mind that I can type that win loss combo.
Those are my preseason projections.
Last year I predicted 8-4 before the season, shifted them to 10-2 post A&M win and held on hope for 7-5 after the Texas St loss.
Still blows my mind that I can type that win loss combo.
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Re: Teams who are poised to bounce back - CBS
Agree. It’s not fair to compare a 25 year old 6th year guy with a 19 year old. I think that Burger and Aguilar are more like ZT.BambooRdApp wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:56 amThere may not be difference from QB1 to QB2, my concern about our success is drop from QB1 last year to QB1 this year. Yes, Chase may not be fleet of foot, however, he was pretty good spinning the ball. I do not care how we move it down the field pass or run...just get it done.
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Re: Teams who are poised to bounce back - CBS
I’m going to go with 1-0 for now. Circle back after Labor Day.Saint3333 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:58 amProjections do shift you know and no one is going to burn you at the stake when making them on a message board.
Those are my preseason projections.
Last year I predicted 8-4 before the season, shifted them to 10-2 post A&M win and held on hope for 7-5 after the Texas St loss.
Still blows my mind that I can type that win loss combo.
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Re: Teams who are poised to bounce back - CBS
Burger throws a pretty ball. I’m not sure about velocity, but it is pretty.AppSt94 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 11:08 amAgree. It’s not fair to compare a 25 year old 6th year guy with a 19 year old. I think that Burger and Aguilar are more like ZT.BambooRdApp wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:56 amThere may not be difference from QB1 to QB2, my concern about our success is drop from QB1 last year to QB1 this year. Yes, Chase may not be fleet of foot, however, he was pretty good spinning the ball. I do not care how we move it down the field pass or run...just get it done.
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Re: Teams who are poised to bounce back - CBS
IMO, our season will go as our defense goes in proportion. The better the defense the better our record. I think we will have a good to really good offense but our success hinges on D. Last year our defense was atrocious. Every time I rewatch highlights of UNC game I cringe at how porous our defense was. In most games we could not stop opponent when we needed to. There were many reasons so I am not getting into all the details but SC made many changes so I am hopeful they work. It may take a few games to get our stride with all the new. I believe it will be improved but can only wait to see how much improved. I have high hopes based on SC changes.
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Re: Teams who are poised to bounce back - CBS
Personally, I believe our season goes as our QB goes and our D is improved over last year. If QB lacking, that impacts run game. We will see stacked line of scrimmage until we demonstrate the QB1 can show he can make right decisions with the run and pass game.
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Re: Teams who are poised to bounce back - CBS
Agree. He threw one across the middle last year against Robert Morris that made me feel food about him under center. That and his demeanor. Very calm and cool like his dad. He doesn’t rattle easily.AppinVA wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 12:11 pmBurger throws a pretty ball. I’m not sure about velocity, but it is pretty.AppSt94 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 11:08 amAgree. It’s not fair to compare a 25 year old 6th year guy with a 19 year old. I think that Burger and Aguilar are more like ZT.BambooRdApp wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:56 amThere may not be difference from QB1 to QB2, my concern about our success is drop from QB1 last year to QB1 this year. Yes, Chase may not be fleet of foot, however, he was pretty good spinning the ball. I do not care how we move it down the field pass or run...just get it done.
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Re: Teams who are poised to bounce back - CBS
Fixed it more.
Angry influential rich boosters. lol
This is my very generic signature added to each post.
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Re: Teams who are poised to bounce back - CBS
Predictions are interesting but give you some idea what others think about team ahead of the season. The fact that we return 12 starters out of 22….. should give us all pause. The fact that there is no established QB also should give us more pause. So any preseason magazines that have us with 6-6 … is more than justified. Those are outside people that really don’t know are talent level… as well as we do. We did play a lot of of people last season, due to injuries, and that will benefit us this season….. however not equally everywhere. There are a lot of question marks on both sides of the ball… probably the most we’ve had in years. All that being said, with a tougher schedule (one FCS team) I am excited for the changes. I think the floor is 6-6 absent of significant injuries… 8-4,9-3 are possibilities if the changes in personnel go well or at least enough of them.
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Re: Teams who are poised to bounce back - CBS
Always do, come on in the waters fine. Sitting on sidelines is boring.
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Re: Teams who are poised to bounce back - CBS
I'll go between 7-5 and 5-7. I really worry about loosing to ECU and then Wyoming. A win v. ECU, we could win ten games. A home loss to them and then the trip to Wyoming... I am really concerned that the Clark folks are already pointing to 2024.