Preseason #54

[Saint3333]

There are quite a few programs that will be better next year other than App, luckily we avoid one, Texas St. Ark St. will be better as they were the second youngest team last year and had quite a few injuries.

USA will be interesting to watch as they picked up 9 UAB transfers and half a dozen Jucos. Playing them in the back half of the year could be like playing a completely different team. GS would be another team it would be nice to play in the first half due to OL turnover.

GA St while a terrible team last year loaded up with Jucos and their coach will be desperate.

The schedule comes out in early March and the timing of when we play these programs may dictate our success.

[AppfaninCAALand]

Here is one take on the 2015 SBC race:

http://cfn.scout.com/2/1511402.html#.VN ... Cw.twitter

The good thing for the league is that you could easily make a case for any of the top four to win the league. Plus Texas St. appears to be on the rise (not sure I agree with them falling behind ULM).

The days of the Sun Belt being ULL, A-State and the Seven Dwarves are over.

They only seem like they dominated the SBC because we are new there and the league has had so much turnover. The ULL-ArkSt dominance has really only been a run of a few short years. The Cajuns have only like six winning seasons in their history. Their ALL-TIME bowl record is 4-0, meaning 4 years ago the supposed powerhouse of the SBC went to its FIRST bowl in 80 years of football.

[T-Dog]

There are quite a few programs that will be better next year other than App, luckily we avoid one, Texas St. Ark St. will be better as they were the second youngest team last year and had quite a few injuries.

USA will be interesting to watch as they picked up 9 UAB transfers and half a dozen Jucos. Playing them in the back half of the year could be like playing a completely different team. GS would be another team it would be nice to play in the first half due to OL turnover.

GA St while a terrible team last year loaded up with Jucos and their coach will be desperate.

The schedule comes out in early March and the timing of when we play these programs may dictate our success.

LaLa just lost their DC to the NFL, so they've lost their entire defensive staff from last year. Plus they only have 11 returning starters.

[AtlAppMan]

Man there are a lot of people on this board who have little faith in this team. I am glad you guys are not our coaches. You have so little confidence in this team. I don't think this team would be very successful following you into battle with your empty rhetoric.

Now I am a realist. In 2014 we got the benefit of low expectations and caught most of the conference by surprise. That will not happen in 2015. However, we have a strong foundation that should significantly improve in 2015. If we do not significantly improve over 2014 then everybody should be surprised and extremely disappointed.

If we don't get at least 9 wins everybody should be extremely disappointed. On paper we should beat everybody on our schedule less Clemson. We have an excellent QB, RB, receivers, defense returning. We are getting most of OL and DL back with improvements to depth. I am not saying they are guaranteed games but if we perform as reasonably expected, meaning we improve appropriately and show up every week prepared to play to our potential then we could go 11-1. If we overachieve at Clemson then it is possible to pull an upset. I am not saying we cannot come in with 8 or less but if that happens it would mean that this team underperformed in 2015. It would mean we did not deliver at a level that we were capable.

Last year we should have won the Southern Miss and Liberty games even though I am convinced we became better and stronger in the long run by losing those games.

Last year at this time there were so many unknowns that it was impossible to predict how we would react (young team period, new level of competition, totally new schedule with only one common opponent from previous year, psychological challenge of whether we could compete in FBS, etc.). This year we know the answers to all of the previous year's unknowns but this year we have a new set of challenges, can we sustain our success, can we continue to improve, can we perform at our top level for a full 12 game schedule without letdowns?

I would rather set our goals high and push our team to challenge themselves rather than go around telling everybody, "hold on dude, don't get too excited, you aren't as good as you think, last year was a down year for everybody else, you may fail". That is not how Boise St got to be a perennial cinderella story. You have to set the bar high and EXPECT the team to rise to the challenge.

[WataugaMan]

To put things in perspective we placed 3rd in a conference where two FCS transitional teams placed in the top three. I would certainly hope we could win 8-9 games.

Agreed, looking forward to this coming season. Go Apps!!!

[hapapp]

On paper we should beat everybody on our schedule less Clemson.

Of course, the games aren't played on paper. I think most folks are just being realistic when they suggest that an 9-3 type season is what they expect. At the G5 level there is so much parity that to go into a season with expectations of 11-1 seems like setting yourself up for disappointment. I certainly expect our coaches and players to approach the season as if they will go 12-0 and certainly each and every fan has that same desire but if we are talking what is most likely to happen, I don't expect 11-1. It has nothing to do with my faith in the team but rather looking at the landscape of the G5 world. How many 11-1 teams were there last year?

[Saint3333]

People read more than is written.

Our goal is the SBC title and bowl game, which are certainly possible, just not probable as we sit here in Feb. I would be shocked if we weren't preseason 1 or 2 in conference.

[EastHallApp]

I don't see anyone who has "so little confidence in this team." I see a lot of fans who are trying to temper our great optimism with at least a dose of realism that not everything always plays out in September-November the way we dream it will in January-August.

Fans aren't players and coaches. I want the guys who are doing the work to set the bar high. I want the fans to dream big too, I just don't want people in here whining if we "only" go 8-4. We saw last year how fickle fans can be.

[EastHallApp]

Here is one take on the 2015 SBC race:

http://cfn.scout.com/2/1511402.html#.VN ... Cw.twitter

The good thing for the league is that you could easily make a case for any of the top four to win the league. Plus Texas St. appears to be on the rise (not sure I agree with them falling behind ULM).

The days of the Sun Belt being ULL, A-State and the Seven Dwarves are over.

They only seem like they dominated the SBC because we are new there and the league has had so much turnover. The ULL-ArkSt dominance has really only been a run of a few short years. The Cajuns have only like six winning seasons in their history. Their ALL-TIME bowl record is 4-0, meaning 4 years ago the supposed powerhouse of the SBC went to its FIRST bowl in 80 years of football.

The last few years are what I was referring to. I think we all realize nobody in the Sun Belt has been a powerhouse for 80 years. If they had been, they wouldn't still be in the Sun Belt.

Whatever the Sun Belt was five or 10 years ago, the league we joined in 2014 was one that was dominated by those two programs.

[AtlAppMan]

Saint, I agree with your stated goal.

However I see comments from some who seem overly cautious that a 10 or 11 win season is not possible.

My point is that based on proven capability in 2nd half of 2014, along with reasonably expected improvements for 2015, and expectation that team doesn't have a big letdown, 10 or 11 is quite possible. Yes it is not a guarantee but we are talking realms of reasonable possibility in this discussion and not pie in the sky hyperbole either. If one looks at our 2nd half 2014 performance, we were at from perfect with big areas available for improvements. In A-state and ULL game we left many points on that table that an improved and more seasoned team could have taken. If we can improve in these areas then we can be a more dominant team. There is no reason to believe that is not possible either.

Time will only tell whether this team can relize their potential.

[hapapp]

If you want me to say it is possible for us to win 11, I will. Will we? I don't know but, realistically I think we can win at least 9 games. We will have the most talented team we have fielded in quite some time, perhaps ever. But, I won't gauge how we perform next year based on one half year playing at the FBS level.

[AtlAppMan]

I won't gauge how we perform next year based on one half year playing at the FBS level.

So what do you base your projections for 2015 on? That is the most recent indicator of our capabilities.

My question for 2015 is whether our team can sustain the intensity (the level we saw in 2nd half of 2014) required to endure a 12 game regular season. If we can then we can go 11-1, if we have a 2-3 game letdown then we may lose them depending on who we play on that day. Rarely does a team keep up top intensity for all 12 games but hopefully we get up for the big games. We proved THIS team can rise to the occassion by going on the road on back to back weeks and taking down 2 of the strongest teams in the conference last year. That is the best I have seen our team rise to a challenge since the heyday of our three-peat NC run. I believe that is the character that this team will define itself by for near future. If that is not the case then we are going to all be hugely disappointed.

[hapapp]

I won't gauge how we perform next year based on one half year playing at the FBS level.

So what do you base your projections for 2015 on? That is the most recent indicator of our capabilities.

My question for 2015 is whether our team can sustain the intensity (the level we saw in 2nd half of 2014) required to endure a 12 game regular season. If we can then we can go 11-1, if we have a 2-3 game letdown then we may lose them depending on who we play on that day. Rarely does a team keep up top intensity for all 12 games but hopefully we get up for the big games. We proved THIS team can rise to the occassion by going on the road on back to back weeks and taking down 2 of the strongest teams in the conference last year. That is the best I have seen our team rise to a challenge since the heyday of our three-peat NC run. I believe that is the character that this team will define itself by for near future. If that is not the case then we are going to all be hugely disappointed.

We were 8 points from going 9-3 last year and 7 points from going 4-8. The margins from an outstanding season to a disappointing one are very narrow, some good luck here or bad lack there can make the difference in a season's outcome. There are so many variables to factor into a season's results that one can't ascertain those 6-8 months away. We could go 11-1 but I'm not certain enough to say that is the most likely outcome for our regular season.

[AtlAppMan]

Saint, I owe you an apology and take back part of my statement. I believe you were initially responding to folks talking about us going to a NY6 or Peach Bowl. I have to totally agree that would be a very unlikely scenario.

In our best world we kick everybody's butt in SBC and OOC by huge margins, pull off a big win at Clemson and then they go 11-1 and win ACC. That would cause a lot of attention in big boy land.

Other really good possibility is we "win/get by" most or all of our games less Clemson. In that case we get some attention but big boys will snub their noses at us because our schedule is less than impressive and say we didn't take care of business at Clemson when we played a real team.

Other possibility is we win/get by for most of our schedule and end up with 9-3, maybe win SBC. Big boys and analyst give respect for moving up in FBS world but consider us a long ways away from being a real team because SBC is bottom of barrel and anything short of killing SBC opponents means we are just marginally better than bottom tier conference foes.

Anything less than last scenario means we have regressed from 2014. unfortunately. Whether anybody is willing to admit it or not, 2014 technically should have been 9-3, and that means we are treading water or slipping backwards in 2015. Not a reason to feel good about situation and I don't believe this will happen.

[bcoach]

Saint, I owe you an apology and take back part of my statement. I believe you were initially responding to folks talking about us going to a NY6 or Peach Bowl. I have to totally agree that would be a very unlikely scenario.

In our best world we kick everybody's butt in SBC and OOC by huge margins, pull off a big win at Clemson and then they go 11-1 and win ACC. That would cause a lot of attention in big boy land.

Other really good possibility is we "win/get by" most or all of our games less Clemson. In that case we get some attention but big boys will snub their noses at us because our schedule is less than impressive and say we didn't take care of business at Clemson when we played a real team.

Other possibility is we win/get by for most of our schedule and end up with 9-3, maybe win SBC. Big boys and analyst give respect for moving up in FBS world but consider us a long ways away from being a real team because SBC is bottom of barrel and anything short of killing SBC opponents means we are just marginally better than bottom tier conference foes.

Anything less than last scenario means we have regressed from 2014. unfortunately. Whether anybody is willing to admit it or not, 2014 technically should have been 9-3, and that means we are treading water or slipping backwards in 2015. Not a reason to feel good about situation and I don't believe this will happen.

You lost me in the last paragraph. How could we technically be 9-3 if we lost 5 games?

[EastHallApp]

ATL, when comparing to 2014, remember App isn't playing last year's schedule. ODU is likely better than Southern Miss was, and Wyoming is better than Liberty. Plus, as others have mentioned, many of the other Sun Belt teams return a lot of starters (granted, not as many as we do) and could well be improved over last year.

Finally, we had good luck with injuries last year. Can't guarantee that will happen again, though we can certainly hope.

A little context: of 22 teams that have made the jump from FCS to FBS, just four won 7 games or more in their second year, while just two won 9 or more.

[Saint3333]

ATL App no problem, just happy to have reasonable App fans on a message to discuss these predictions. Our opinions appear to be very similar for 2015.

[AppAttack]

The Sun Belt will be better this year. I just want to see continued improvement on the field. Better special teams, less stupid penalties, better red zone efficiency the entire season, etc. The wins and losses will take care of themselves. 8-4 or better seems realistic with the talent we have returning and the way we ended last season.

[bigdaddyg]

There is a whole lotta woulda, shoulda, coulda being batted around. Lots of teams can look back at their schedules and say, a play here or there and we would have won that game! Rarely does anyone say, we were lucky to win that game! The shape of the ball often dictates wins or losses. That being said we all know that two painful losses never should have happened. A few made kicks and we finish 9-3. I am hoping that we get a more favorable schedule. We know that a few of the SB heavyweights have to come to Boone which is definitely to our advantage. Last year having to go on the road on a Saturday then back on the road the following Thursday could not have been a worse situation, especially having to go to GSU. If we get a Thursday TV game let it be in Boone in the cold. Experience and depth should be a huge advantage. We just can't afford to overlook anyone. Personally I wish we would play Clemson about midyear. Even though we should be in condition, an early season game down in the heat and humidity won't be fun.

[WVAPPeer]

Keep in mind that none of our opponents (except Clemson) have already marked APP as a victory in 2015 - we caught some people overlooking us last year especially after the poor start --- Won't happen again ---