Recruiting, 2015

[App1990]

Found this mini analysis (link below) on how recruiting rankings compare to actual performance, and thought you guys may be interested. For those without the time to read through it, they conclude that recruiting rankings do a pretty good job of predicting success/failure on the field. They find cases in which teams under or over perform relative to their recruiting rankings, but they conclude that these deviations are largely explained by QB play. Great QB play can help a so-so recruiting class get over the hump, and bad QB play can cause a good recruiting class to fail to meet expectations. Seems reasonable, and is a nice story with us having Lamb playing well. Here is the story:

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/ncaaf-dr- ... 21368.html

[Saint3333]

Good thing the highest rated recruit of this class is a QB I guess.

[App95]

The stars are the best metric available and they certainly offer relevant information, but they are far from perfect. For individual players, a player with a bad rating can turn out to be great. For a group, a low average rating is like having the deck stacked against you. It can work out, but I wouldn't want to make that bet year after year.

I do notice that people loved the ratings last year, while this year many people are dismissing them. mmm. Last year, we were 4th in the Sun Belt on the average rating, and we had 9 3-star recruits. This year, we are 8th in the conference, and we have 3 3-star recruits. I suspect (hope) we will finish strong and move up a bit, but as it stands now, this year's class appears to be a step back..ON PAPER which is all we have at this point. Of course, there are reasons outside of quality that may make the ratings relatively low, such as targeting specific positions (though it seems we were all over). And of course, it will ultimately be revealed on the field, which is what matters in the end. However, as mentioned above, one year doesn't make a trend, but the odds ensures that making a habit of getting the 8th best recruiting class will lead to bad outcomes on the field.

Lastly to Moose's comments about admission standards. The admission standards for athletes at App are quite a bit lower than those of the general student population. And this is not only for football. Strings are pulled to get someone in. App is not alone of course, but App is not above the fray either. Admission is general based on NCAA regs, which is the same for everyone. Coaches make a call after balancing character, prospects of remaining eligible, etc. Some coaches take more risks, but that usually doesn't get them far in the long run. And a few will not lower admission standards much, but that will not get them far on the field (or their coaching career). The point is that we are not as different as we may want to think. Different yes, but not dramatically so. GeoSou is simply doing a good job on the recruiting trail. Oh yea, I would argue that the differences in graduation rates are as much about the quality of the education experience (support, professors, etc.) than the type of recruit. I'll also throw out a point of pride for us. The general admission standards are quite a bit higher at App than ALL the other Sun Belt schools. It's a weak bunch.

Once again, our average recruit rating is higher this year than last year. An even better measure is who else has offered. Let's take a look at some of the teams we beat out for this class:

NC State - 1
Cincinnati - 1
Ark St - 1
ECU - 3
Southern Miss - 3
ODU - 5
GS - 3
Middle Tenn - 3
Marshall - 2
UNCC - 4
South Ala - 2
Troy - 2

Others of note: Army, Navy, Colorado, Toledo, Temple, Ohio

[boonetown1]

IMO, our drop off in recruiting this year is from the departure of Stepp. His coaching abilities were pretty good but his ability to build relationships and land these kids was great. (See noil, Boyd, Meadors, etc.)

[proasu89]

I say offer Matt a scholie

Rest assured that if we know his story then our coaches do as well.

DOn't look know but according to Scout, GS had offered. One look at his offers page and it seems clear that Louisville over reached on the recruit, based on other offers he has gotten.

He committed to Louisville eight months ago and as a result, he fell off the radar. Kid is very fast and runs north/south. He was Mr. Football in the state of SC in '14, so there's some talent there. Now deciding between offers from GS, Wake Forest, Marshall and FURMAN!

I find myself rooting for Furman. Leaves a bad taste though.

[boonetown1]

By the way alex taylor was rated a 3 star about a month ago and letman was a higher 3 star on 247 until they were adjusted for some reason.

[TheMackAttack]

Once again, our average recruit rating is higher this year than last year. An even better measure is who else has offered. Let's take a look at some of the teams we beat out for this class:

NC State - 1
Cincinnati - 1
Ark St - 1
ECU - 3
Southern Miss - 3
ODU - 5
GS - 3
Middle Tenn - 3
Marshall - 2
UNCC - 4
South Ala - 2
Troy - 2

Others of note: Army, Navy, Colorado, Toledo, Temple, Ohio

I know we beat out Colorado and Boston College once each as well.

[EastHallApp]

Another thing I like to consider, in addition to stars and other offers, is how close a recruit was to the top of the staff's board. Of course we don't know that with certainty, but you can often get an idea. And it seems to me that, while nobody is going to get their first choice at every spot, most of these guys were either a) among the staff's first choices at their positions, or b) offered at positions where there wasn't necessarily a big need, which gives me the impression the staff viewed them as too good not to offer (see all of the jucos except Williams).

The alternative would be recruiting a player because you just don't have the necessary numbers at a given position. I don't think many of our commits fall in that category.

[firemoose]

Will it be on here as we receive their LOI?

I'm up for the duration. I will be posting each one as it's announced. I'm sure others will post them also but since I'm staying up for the whole thing I'll be posting them anyway. I also have to move each one on the Main Page and also edit their player pages. The faxes can start coming in at 7:00 and will come in all day. Not quite as many as last year but they tended to come in lumps then and there will be lulls tomorrow. We also have a CA player so there's no telling when that one will come in. And just as one FYI Daniel David posted he would be signing at 2:40 tomorrow. Keep in mind that all the NLI's have to go through all the conference and other admin stuff before they become official so even if a player tweets they've signed it's not official until SID puts it out.

EDIT: Sounds like they'll all be in by noon. If that's the case then David's post could mean he's going to send his in and then do a ceremonial signing at school with his teammates. Last year it was around 3 or so before the last one came in, if I recall correctly. Maybe this year we won't have to wait as long. We'll see.

Everybody get their beauty sleep (I don't need any because even a beauty coma couldn't help me) and I'll see everyone bright and early in the am. The countdown is on.

[HkyMtneer]

Let's get this thing started! It's a shame we don't have any European kickers coming on board...maybe we could have already had that first LOI sitting on the fax machine's deck. Here's to hoping they come in fast and steady, with a (good) surprise maybe awaiting as well. And to Moose in advance: You da' man!

[AppSt94]

Happy Signing Day!

[firemoose]

Well...it was for me until I just found out that I can no longer edit pages. Was able to less than an hour ago. I'll post the NLI's as they come in but until Yosef can fix me back I can't edit the Main page.

[firemoose]

NLI is in for QB Daniel David (6' 2" 190) of Mill Creek High School in Hoschton, GA. He’s officially a MOUNTAINEER!!!

[WataugaMan]

Dynasties are built from the trenches and I think we really nailed that. We got four massive and talented offensive linemen, a true nose guard and a two defensive ends, one of whom can play right away the other who is criminally underrated and will likely be a star someday.

Bingo! In layman terms: Focus in recruiting troops for the trenches was one of our biggest needs and the staff "got er' done". We already had met our "quota" in the "2,3,4 star skill players", thus, we met our needs and it will show in the futute. One can have all the best skill players in the world, however, without any men in the trenches it will do no good. No worries here, the future looks outstanding.

[firemoose]

NLI is in for LB Anthony Flory (6' 2" 225) of American Heritage High School in Fort Lauderdale, FL. He’s officially a MOUNTAINEER!!!

[eggers76]

NLI is in for QB Daniel David (6' 2" 190) of Mill Creek High School in Hoschton, GA. He’s officially a MOUNTAINEER!!!

Daniel David already showing leadership. You like to see that in a QB.

[firemoose]

Just an FYI...for those watching twitter and wondering where the post about Flory is....appstatesports Signing Day Central added him at 7:16. Haven't seen it on twitter yet but the university page says his NLI is in.

[firemoose]

Again from appstatesports.com...NLI is in for LB Akeem Davis (6' 2" 200) of Thomasville High School in Thomasville, NC. He’s officially a MOUNTAINEER!!!

[firemoose]

NLI is in for ATH Jake Easter (6' 2" 185) of Reagan High School in Pfafftown, NC. He’s officially a MOUNTAINEER!!!

[firemoose]

NLI is in for LB Edward Davis (6' 0" 225) of Farmville Central High School in Farmville, NC. He’s officially a MOUNTAINEER!!!