Probability to win each game

[Yosef10]

Pretty interesting site: http://www.bcftoys.com/2016-game-projections/

Gives us a 15% chance of beating UT, 66% chance we beat UM (surprising and perhaps a tad too high), and kinda shockingly a 46% chance we beat GS.

[Saint3333]

Those give us 9.5 wins. Vegas set the over/under wins for App at 8.5.

[Yosef10]

Oh wow I would absolutely hammer 8.5

[Saint3333]

I was in Vegas last week, but none of the sports books had the G5 conferences (except for MWC due to UNLV). Arkansas St. is 7.5 and I wanted to bet that one.

[Yosef10]

I was in Vegas last week, but none of the sports books had the G5 conferences (except for MWC due to UNLV). Arkansas St. is 7.5 and I wanted to bet that one.

Yeah I've ran into the same problem with online sites. I'd think the ark state o/u would be a no brainer.

[ASU84]

The lowest percentage chance of beating any Sun Belt team we play is 82% outside of Ga. Southern at 46%? I'm not buying it.

[bigdaddyg]

Not that I really care and I don't gamble but a quick glance at Ark State's schedule looks like 8-4 at worst. I have no idea about Toledo and Utah St but over on 7.5 appears to be a lock

[EastHallApp]

Don't know anything about that site, but they seem to put a lot of weight on home field based on those numbers.

Compare to FPI, which gives us a much lower chance of beating Miami (30%) but rates us as a slight favorite over GS. http://www.espn.com/college-football/te ... &year=2016

They are right in line with Vegas on our wins, FWIW - 8.4.

[EastHallApp]

A-State could easily start 0-3 - Toledo beat them by 30 last year, and Utah State was bowl-eligible last year and won 19 games the previous two years (and A-State gets them on the road).

Their conference schedule appears favorable, but we don't really have any idea what kind of QB play they'll get. For a team that's used to winning a lot of shootouts, they need a very good replacement for Knighten.

Not saying I'd bet the under, but I can see where there's uncertainty.

[AppOrange]

Don't know anything about that site, but they seem to put a lot of weight on home field based on those numbers.

Compare to FPI, which gives us a much lower chance of beating Miami (30%) but rates us as a slight favorite over GS. http://www.espn.com/college-football/te ... &year=2016

They are right in line with Vegas on our wins, FWIW - 8.4.

I tend to agree with these numbers. A little surprised on the ODU percentage, I think it is closer than that.

[bigdaddyg]

These probability numbers are really stupid (just my opinion). I like to stick with 100% (winning or losing), 0% (same) or 50% (toss up). I only see those other percentage numbers somewhat useful for rain predictions- and typically that's just a guess at best.

[AtlAppMan]

This is typical statistical analysis. There is never a 0/100% situation. It is always some level of probability. Whether you agree with it or not, it is really based on the programmer's weighting methodology, and that is the key to the accuracy. Remember that there are uncertainties that get baked into the results when using statistical probability unlike when an individual looks at each game one by one. The statistical approach takes into account the possibility that each team may not always perform as an exact consistent level for every game throughout the entire season.

[bigdaddyg]

This is typical statistical analysis. There is never a 0/100% situation. It is always some level of probability. Whether you agree with it or not, it is really based on the programmer's weighting methodology, and that is the key to the accuracy. Remember that there are uncertainties that get baked into the results when using statistical probability unlike when an individual looks at each game one by one. The statistical approach takes into account the possibility that each team may not always perform as an exact consistent level for every game throughout the entire season.

Oh believe me I get it. Just tire of it. I took stats in my day at App.

[/\PP ST/\TE GRAD 09]

I'm as confused now as I was in college hearing and learning about statistics

[AtlAppMan]

There is a 27.8% chance most people will get it.

[bigdaddyg]

I'm as confused now as I was in college hearing and learning about statistics

I hear you. Some baseball stats that scroll on the bottom of the screen into the season make a little sense (chance of knocking in a run with 2 outs and runners on 2nd and 3rd at night, on the road against a right handed pitcher..17%. Ok

Game one of the football season. It's either 100% chance of winning or losing or its 50/50 which is a toss up. My weather app used to show rain percentages like 17%. What?

[EastHallApp]

Game one of the football season. It's either 100% chance of winning or losing or its 50/50 which is a toss up.

What? No game is 100% before it's played, and virtually no game is 50-50.

[bigdaddyg]

Game one of the football season. It's either 100% chance of winning or losing or its 50/50 which is a toss up.

What? No game is 100% before it's played, and virtually no game is 50-50.

Ok being a little extreme. I'm pretty sure every casino, newspaper, "expert", etc predicts UT to win. Pretty darn close to 100%. Forget the spread. I'm sure there will be games where the two teams are so close the line is virtually even money (toss up). I realize there are complicated algorithms that are used to determine that we have some oddball chance of winning.

[appvette]

And then you have games where one team would win about 1/3rd of the times they play. In that case it isn't a toss up nor is one team heavily favored. I've been around car dealerships a lot growing up and realized a lot of people don't like dealing with probability... They expect everything to be black and white. Will this car last 5 years or not?