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Free Throws

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Free Throws

Unread post by zim262 » Mon Feb 19, 2024 10:04 am

Seems if most game threads have "some" discussion in relation to free throws and their importance. One can say, "Ok we missed 10 FT's which is 10 points left off the board." Pretty straightforward. But then I got to thinking about missed vs. made and the resulting actions after either. Someone into stats and tracking and such might be able to figure this out. Hope this makes some sense.

When a FT is attempted one of several things can happen:
1) FT made, opposing team takes ball out, then scores
2) FT made, opposing team takes ball out, then does not score
3) FT missed, opposing team gets rebound, then scores
4) FT missed, opposing team gets rebound, then does not score
5) FT missed, shooting team gets rebound, then scores
6) FT missed, shooting teams gets rebound, and then does not score.

In #'s 1, 2 & 5 the shooting team has more of an opportunity to set up its defense on the in-bounds, where in 3, 4 & 6 it does not.

So I guess my question would be: Statistically, is a missed FT more that just a missed FT?

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Re: Free Throws

Unread post by Bigdaddyg1 » Mon Feb 19, 2024 10:20 am

It's almost the same as turnovers. What happens after a turnover? If the other team scores after you make one the results are magnified. Not only did you not score but you allowed a basket. That's a potential 4-5 point swing. If after our misses, on average we haven't allowed a bucket then those misses haven't hurt us. I we average around 20 FT's per game and are averaging around 13 makes. To get to a top 50ish average we needed to make 3-4 more per game. Those few misses magnify our shooting percentages but haven't translated into many points by our opponents. Other than a couple of games we have minimized turnovers which is a much bigger deal than leaving 4 points at the line. I looked at the play by play in a few games to see what happened after some of our misses and in most cases we didn't allow a basket.

I've always thought that sacks in football can be a big misleading stat. You can get a one yard loss tackle for a sack or a 15 yard loss and it's the same statistical number. If you get a sack and it leads to change in possession that's huge. If you get a sack and immediately allow a first down then the impact is negated.

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Re: Free Throws

Unread post by T-Dog » Mon Feb 19, 2024 10:27 am

One of us needs to sign up for one of thise analytical sites and do a deep dive on this.

Based on memory, I believe despite not being a great FT shooting team, App MBB shoots them very well in late game scenarios.

But in the end, there will always be posters pulling their hair out over missed free throws. Same as fumbles and dropped passes in football and caught looking strikeouts and errors in baseball.

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Re: Free Throws

Unread post by scatman77 » Mon Feb 19, 2024 10:42 am

T-Dog wrote:
Mon Feb 19, 2024 10:27 am
One of us needs to sign up for one of thise analytical sites and do a deep dive on this.

Based on memory, I believe despite not being a great FT shooting team, App MBB shoots them very well in late game scenarios.

But in the end, there will always be posters pulling their hair out over missed free throws. Same as fumbles and dropped passes in football and caught looking strikeouts and errors in baseball.
I'm one of the "hair pullers" when it comes to FTs. College players should, at the very worst, hit 80% of their free throws. It's a 15 footer, no defense, no clock, straight on. Players who can hit 20-30 foot jumpers should hit a 15 footer with ease.

As a member of high school athletics for 38 years, I heard way too many complaints about referees costing one of my school's teams a win and losing by 3. I'd ask the complainer "how many free throws did the team miss?" He'd usually say "I think 12."

"So, you're blaming an official for losing by 3 when you left 12 points on the court by missing FTs?"

After that it was usually crickets, eye-rolling, or both.
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Re: Free Throws

Unread post by Bigdaddyg1 » Mon Feb 19, 2024 10:53 am

scatman77 wrote:
Mon Feb 19, 2024 10:42 am
T-Dog wrote:
Mon Feb 19, 2024 10:27 am
One of us needs to sign up for one of thise analytical sites and do a deep dive on this.

Based on memory, I believe despite not being a great FT shooting team, App MBB shoots them very well in late game scenarios.

But in the end, there will always be posters pulling their hair out over missed free throws. Same as fumbles and dropped passes in football and caught looking strikeouts and errors in baseball.
I'm one of the "hair pullers" when it comes to FTs. College players should, at the very worst, hit 80% of their free throws. It's a 15 footer, no defense, no clock, straight on. Players who can hit 20-30 foot jumpers should hit a 15 footer with ease.

As a member of high school athletics for 38 years, I heard way too many complaints about referees costing one of my school's teams a win and losing by 3. I'd ask the complainer "how many free throws did the team miss?" He'd usually say "I think 12."

"So, you're blaming an official for losing by 3 when you left 12 points on the court by missing FTs?"

After that it was usually crickets, eye-rolling, or both.
The only thing I really hate is seeing a college basketball player in particular either barely drawing iron- surely every player is strong enough to get the ball to the basket, or a guy with absolutely horrible mechanics who appears to simply throw the ball at the basket. Again every player especially at the college level has played the game long enough to at least be able to shoot it. Any player who is proficient will still get a few bad bounces.
I personally don't necessarily think that simply shooting a bunch in practice is the key. For me it's the mental aspect. Can you block out the noise and slow your heart beat? Teams pipe in artificial crowd noise or use really loud music during football practices to simulate what they might get in a game to be able to communicate plays. In basketball practice I'd have guys around shooters yelling and making distractions to simulate a game situation.

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Re: Free Throws

Unread post by hapapp » Mon Feb 19, 2024 12:08 pm

One anomaly I discovered when looking at our FT stats, over the last four Saturday games, Abson is 8-10 from the line. In the following games during the week he is 3-9.

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Re: Free Throws

Unread post by AppinVA » Mon Feb 19, 2024 12:12 pm

hapapp wrote:
Mon Feb 19, 2024 12:08 pm
One anomaly I discovered when looking at our FT stats, over the last four Saturday games, Abson is 8-10 from the line. In the following games during the week he is 3-9.
Sooooo he needs a nap.
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Re: Free Throws

Unread post by Bootsy » Mon Feb 19, 2024 12:23 pm

Shouldn’t this thread be named something along the lines of,

“Let’s Continue to Argue About Free Throws”

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Re: Free Throws

Unread post by AppSt94 » Mon Feb 19, 2024 1:16 pm

You have to look a bit further into this. The outcome of the first free throw is important for those that are 1&1 opportunities for fouls 7-9. A miss on the first creates an automatic Miss on the second since the second one doesn’t occur.

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Re: Free Throws

Unread post by PhillyApp1 » Mon Feb 19, 2024 1:25 pm

Big games are lost on the free throw line.....

Watch any winning program and they all shoot well from The Line.

It's like the trenches in football

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Re: Free Throws

Unread post by WVAPPeer » Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:17 pm

UVA beat WF and was 1 for 11 from the free throw line - not a recipe for success especially in such a low scoring game but they did win the game.
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Re: Free Throws

Unread post by appvette » Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:36 pm

Amazing how much attention this has gotten. We have made 99 more free throws this year than our opponents. If we averaged just one additional made free throw per game, we would be slightly above average instead of below average FT%. One single point.

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Re: Free Throws

Unread post by Bigdaddyg1 » Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:45 pm

appvette wrote:
Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:36 pm
Amazing how much attention this has gotten. We have made 99 more free throws this year than our opponents. If we averaged just one additional made free throw per game, we would be slightly above average instead of below average FT%. One single point.
Amazing isn't it? The guys who continually look for the negative in every sport can't get past the percentage without considering the totals. Those same guys picked apart Ryan Burger's passing stats from a couple of drives in the one short amount of time he played in one single game. Or the TV announcers who bring up season stats in the second game of a season. We have 9 guys who play and really only 2 who had been abysmal so our team numbers have been low. You would think that all 9 dudes stink. The two who struggled most of the season have improved but like a GPA that starts out at a 2.0 it's hard to bring it up to a 3.0 without several semesters of 4.0. Basically we need to shoot 19-20 for the next 5 games to get to 70% or so. Just keep improving and we will be fine.

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Re: Free Throws

Unread post by AppStFan1 » Tue Feb 20, 2024 1:34 am

Bigdaddyg1 wrote:
Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:45 pm
appvette wrote:
Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:36 pm
Amazing how much attention this has gotten. We have made 99 more free throws this year than our opponents. If we averaged just one additional made free throw per game, we would be slightly above average instead of below average FT%. One single point.
Amazing isn't it? The guys who continually look for the negative in every sport can't get past the percentage without considering the totals. Those same guys picked apart Ryan Burger's passing stats from a couple of drives in the one short amount of time he played in one single game. Or the TV announcers who bring up season stats in the second game of a season. We have 9 guys who play and really only 2 who had been abysmal so our team numbers have been low. You would think that all 9 dudes stink. The two who struggled most of the season have improved but like a GPA that starts out at a 2.0 it's hard to bring it up to a 3.0 without several semesters of 4.0. Basically we need to shoot 19-20 for the next 5 games to get to 70% or so. Just keep improving and we will be fine.
Very good point. As I mentioned before we have really just had 2 guys struggle from free throw line. The rest of the team has done well and even those two have gotten better like you said. There is not doubt this team has improved and is not anywhere near the same team that lost to NIU, Oregon State, and Asheville.

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Re: Free Throws

Unread post by Bigdaddyg1 » Tue Feb 20, 2024 7:05 am

AppStFan1 wrote:
Tue Feb 20, 2024 1:34 am
Bigdaddyg1 wrote:
Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:45 pm
appvette wrote:
Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:36 pm
Amazing how much attention this has gotten. We have made 99 more free throws this year than our opponents. If we averaged just one additional made free throw per game, we would be slightly above average instead of below average FT%. One single point.
Amazing isn't it? The guys who continually look for the negative in every sport can't get past the percentage without considering the totals. Those same guys picked apart Ryan Burger's passing stats from a couple of drives in the one short amount of time he played in one single game. Or the TV announcers who bring up season stats in the second game of a season. We have 9 guys who play and really only 2 who had been abysmal so our team numbers have been low. You would think that all 9 dudes stink. The two who struggled most of the season have improved but like a GPA that starts out at a 2.0 it's hard to bring it up to a 3.0 without several semesters of 4.0. Basically we need to shoot 19-20 for the next 5 games to get to 70% or so. Just keep improving and we will be fine.
Very good point. As I mentioned before we have really just had 2 guys struggle from free throw line. The rest of the team has done well and even those two have gotten better like you said. There is not doubt this team has improved and is not anywhere near the same team that lost to NIU, Oregon State, and Asheville.
I'll also like the typical negative guy football complaint- if we don't beat Elon by 50 instead of just 24 we have huge problems, our coaches are terrible and our program is in decline. It's so easy to steamroll every opponent (home or away) in basketball by 25, shoot 60% from the field and 80% from the line..every game.

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Re: Free Throws

Unread post by AppSt94 » Tue Feb 20, 2024 7:37 am

Bigdaddyg1 wrote:
Tue Feb 20, 2024 7:05 am
AppStFan1 wrote:
Tue Feb 20, 2024 1:34 am
Bigdaddyg1 wrote:
Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:45 pm
appvette wrote:
Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:36 pm
Amazing how much attention this has gotten. We have made 99 more free throws this year than our opponents. If we averaged just one additional made free throw per game, we would be slightly above average instead of below average FT%. One single point.
Amazing isn't it? The guys who continually look for the negative in every sport can't get past the percentage without considering the totals. Those same guys picked apart Ryan Burger's passing stats from a couple of drives in the one short amount of time he played in one single game. Or the TV announcers who bring up season stats in the second game of a season. We have 9 guys who play and really only 2 who had been abysmal so our team numbers have been low. You would think that all 9 dudes stink. The two who struggled most of the season have improved but like a GPA that starts out at a 2.0 it's hard to bring it up to a 3.0 without several semesters of 4.0. Basically we need to shoot 19-20 for the next 5 games to get to 70% or so. Just keep improving and we will be fine.
Very good point. As I mentioned before we have really just had 2 guys struggle from free throw line. The rest of the team has done well and even those two have gotten better like you said. There is not doubt this team has improved and is not anywhere near the same team that lost to NIU, Oregon State, and Asheville.
I'll also like the typical negative guy football complaint- if we don't beat Elon by 50 instead of just 24 we have huge problems, our coaches are terrible and our program is in decline. It's so easy to steamroll every opponent (home or away) in basketball by 25, shoot 60% from the field and 80% from the line..every game.
People just like to complain about the stuff that gives them a negative feeling or doesn’t meet that preconceived expectations because it clouds their ability to see the big picture. I guess it somehow makes them feel better.

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Re: Free Throws

Unread post by NattyBumppo'sRevenge » Tue Feb 20, 2024 7:52 am

I think missed free throws aren’t as bad as unsuccessful runs up the middle on 4th and 2.

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Re: Free Throws

Unread post by MrCraig » Tue Feb 20, 2024 8:00 am

I’ve been dragged on here a couple times for suggesting that games are NOT won or lost at the free throw line.
1. The name is misleading. A “free” throw is not even close to the easiest shot to make, even unguarded.
2. Most championship teams are simply average FT% teams, and the difference between average and below average is usually 1-2 FTs
3. Like a power hitting baseball player who strikes out a lot, a deficiency in one aspect of the game can be overcome by proficiency in another.
4. There seems to be a possible correlation between folks who lose their minds over free throws, folks who think players shoot too many 3s these days, and just plain old folks. I think there’s a sizable middle area in that 3-circle Venn diagram.

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Re: Free Throws

Unread post by Bigdaddyg1 » Tue Feb 20, 2024 8:21 am

MrCraig wrote:
Tue Feb 20, 2024 8:00 am
I’ve been dragged on here a couple times for suggesting that games are NOT won or lost at the free throw line.
1. The name is misleading. A “free” throw is not even close to the easiest shot to make, even unguarded.
2. Most championship teams are simply average FT% teams, and the difference between average and below average is usually 1-2 FTs
3. Like a power hitting baseball player who strikes out a lot, a deficiency in one aspect of the game can be overcome by proficiency in another.
4. There seems to be a possible correlation between folks who lose their minds over free throws, folks who think players shoot too many 3s these days, and just plain old folks. I think there’s a sizable middle area in that 3-circle Venn diagram.
I saw a video pop up on Facebook a few weeks ago about the guy who had a goal of shooting a million free throws. He shot X amount per day, logged it and kept up with his shooting percentage. He was really good and I can't recall but he was over 90%. Of course this entire endeavor was done alone in an empty gym over a long period of time. Theoretically if the same guy shot 5-10 free throws in front of 5,000 or more people with several hundred of those crazy 18-22 year olds with signs and arms waving I wonder what his numbers would look like. Since he is an elderly gentleman let's allow him to walk around and get slightly winded before each "free shot". People want to use the unguarded free aspects to make it seem like these shots should go in 8 out 10 times at a minimum. The only thing that I believe is unacceptable for a college basketball player is for them to shoot either an air ball or to virtually throw the ball at the rim with no form or effort.

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Re: Free Throws

Unread post by Rekdiver » Tue Feb 20, 2024 9:39 am

Just like the last missed pass in the end zone fT's misses are magnified....Easy stat to blame. Turnovers, fouls, defensive lapses and missed shots from the field lose games.

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