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JMU on bubble but not us?

EastHallApp
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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by EastHallApp » Fri Feb 23, 2024 1:03 pm

hapapp wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2024 7:30 am
Bigdaddyg1 wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2024 6:44 am
hapapp wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:42 pm
Bigdaddyg1 wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:11 pm
Well I guess a 15 point road win should be good for a 5 point drop in the NET. Who knows?
Q4 win…
Yeah I was being a tad sarcastic. The remaining games won't boost us at all.
With the win we dropped a spot to 75. Crazy system.
Not sure what you mean. It appears we moved up to 73: https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketbal ... t-rankings

EastHallApp
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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by EastHallApp » Fri Feb 23, 2024 1:09 pm

WVAPPeer wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2024 6:24 pm
Bigdaddyg1 wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:45 pm
I would bet that it is very rare for two teams to meet 3 times in a season and when it does happen I'd also bet that most of the time they split the first two. That's been said for years but I'd have to see a whole bunch of examples to even put any stock in it. As mentioned above we already handled the 2 of a possible 3 part. I'd rather be on our end of the equation.
Clemson beat NCS 3 times last year and NCS got the bid and Clemson did not
That was such a crazy one to me. And I do know H2H generally doesn't matter, and can accept that. But Clemson also had the same overall record as State, finished two games ahead of them in the ACC, and the three wins were by 14, 25 (at State late in the regular season) and 26 (ACC Tournament). And it wasn't like State had some great collection of wins; both teams played weak OOC schedules.

Basically they put more weight on Clemson having a couple bad OOC losses than they did them beating the brakes off State twice in the last two weeks of the season. Just nuts.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by hapapp » Fri Feb 23, 2024 2:10 pm

EastHallApp wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2024 1:03 pm
hapapp wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2024 7:30 am
Bigdaddyg1 wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2024 6:44 am
hapapp wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:42 pm
Bigdaddyg1 wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:11 pm
Well I guess a 15 point road win should be good for a 5 point drop in the NET. Who knows?
Q4 win…
Yeah I was being a tad sarcastic. The remaining games won't boost us at all.
With the win we dropped a spot to 75. Crazy system.
Not sure what you mean. It appears we moved up to 73: https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketbal ... t-rankings
That changed from this morning when I looked, we had gone from 74 to 75. Madison is now at 48, without playing.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by AppSt94 » Fri Feb 23, 2024 2:54 pm

hapapp wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2024 2:10 pm
EastHallApp wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2024 1:03 pm
hapapp wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2024 7:30 am
Bigdaddyg1 wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2024 6:44 am
hapapp wrote:
Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:42 pm


Q4 win…
Yeah I was being a tad sarcastic. The remaining games won't boost us at all.
With the win we dropped a spot to 75. Crazy system.
Not sure what you mean. It appears we moved up to 73: https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketbal ... t-rankings
That changed from this morning when I looked, we had gone from 74 to 75. Madison is now at 48, without playing.
They may have had opponents play last night.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by EastHallApp » Fri Feb 23, 2024 3:13 pm

AppSt94 wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2024 2:54 pm
hapapp wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2024 2:10 pm
EastHallApp wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2024 1:03 pm
hapapp wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2024 7:30 am
Bigdaddyg1 wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2024 6:44 am


Yeah I was being a tad sarcastic. The remaining games won't boost us at all.
With the win we dropped a spot to 75. Crazy system.
Not sure what you mean. It appears we moved up to 73: https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketbal ... t-rankings
That changed from this morning when I looked, we had gone from 74 to 75. Madison is now at 48, without playing.
They may have had opponents play last night.
One of the teams they jumped is Grand Canyon, who lost last night. So that's simple enough.

They also jumped Texas A&M, which I can only assume is explained by some indirect results like one or both teams' opponents playing. Weird stuff like that does happen.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by hapapp » Fri Feb 23, 2024 4:00 pm

The way to go for P5 programs is to have an easy non-conference schedule and rack up lopsided wins. A case in point is Iowa State. Not suggesting they aren't a good team but here are some of the games they played in the non-conference:

Date Opponent Result Location W/L Conf
11/06 WI-Grn Bay W 85-44 Home 1-0 0-0
11/09 Lindenwood W 102-47 Home 2-0 0-0
11/12 Idaho St W 86-55 Home 3-0 0-0
11/19 Grambling St W 92-37 Home 4-0 0-0
11/23 VCU W 68-64 Neutral 5-0 0-0
11/24 VA Tech L 62-71 Neutral 5-1 0-0
11/26 Texas A&M L 69-73 Neutral 5-2 0-0
12/01 DePaul W 99-80 Away 6-2 0-0
12/07 Iowa W 90-65 Home 7-2 0-0
12/10 Prairie View W 107-56 Home 8-2 0-0
12/17 Florida A&M W 96-58 Home 9-2 0-0
12/21 E Illinois W 80-48 Home 10-2 0-0
12/31 N Hampshire W 85-70 Home 11-2 0-0

While there are a few decent teams in there (they lost to two of them) they thumped a bunch weaker teams by large margins thereby pumping up their NET. And, of course, once they entered conference play most of their games are Quad 1 games. They are currently #8 in the NET.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by EastHallApp » Fri Feb 23, 2024 10:06 pm

hapapp wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2024 4:00 pm
The way to go for P5 programs is to have an easy non-conference schedule and rack up lopsided wins. A case in point is Iowa State. Not suggesting they aren't a good team but here are some of the games they played in the non-conference:

Date Opponent Result Location W/L Conf
11/06 WI-Grn Bay W 85-44 Home 1-0 0-0
11/09 Lindenwood W 102-47 Home 2-0 0-0
11/12 Idaho St W 86-55 Home 3-0 0-0
11/19 Grambling St W 92-37 Home 4-0 0-0
11/23 VCU W 68-64 Neutral 5-0 0-0
11/24 VA Tech L 62-71 Neutral 5-1 0-0
11/26 Texas A&M L 69-73 Neutral 5-2 0-0
12/01 DePaul W 99-80 Away 6-2 0-0
12/07 Iowa W 90-65 Home 7-2 0-0
12/10 Prairie View W 107-56 Home 8-2 0-0
12/17 Florida A&M W 96-58 Home 9-2 0-0
12/21 E Illinois W 80-48 Home 10-2 0-0
12/31 N Hampshire W 85-70 Home 11-2 0-0

While there are a few decent teams in there (they lost to two of them) they thumped a bunch weaker teams by large margins thereby pumping up their NET. And, of course, once they entered conference play most of their games are Quad 1 games. They are currently #8 in the NET.
Some of these leagues really seem to have cracked the code with the NET. The Big 12 and MWC being the first two that come to mind. Every year, we hear all season how great they are, and then for the most part they get exposed in the tournament. Yet we keep hearing that they're the best leagues because the NET tells us so.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by WVAPPeer » Fri Feb 23, 2024 10:37 pm

I think you might have those 2 conferences confused with the Big 10 :o
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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by hapapp » Sat Feb 24, 2024 7:05 am

WVAPPeer wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2024 10:37 pm
I think you might have those 2 conferences confused with the Big 10 :o
The Big 10 has been the most egregiously over rated conference in the past couple of tournaments but it may be the Big 12 this year. There's brackets that has as many 8-9 teams while the ACC might have four. No fan of the ACC but head to head they 9-3 v. the Big 12.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by Bigdaddyg1 » Sat Feb 24, 2024 7:32 am

I've thought about how this works for a bit and I can see how not considering head to head kind of makes sense. There are some rare exceptions where one team may have beaten a tournament team twice (or 3 with Clemson) but the team who won those games apparently didn't handle their business against the rest of their schedule. If our final standings and tournament shakes out as we expect there is no way we beat JMU three times and not get in as the 3rd would be the Belt championship game. As for the other head to head piece yep we have what could be 3 quad one wins but we have probably 2 quad 3/4 losses and the stuff in the middle while kind of out of our control isn't NET impressive so to speak. Basically if a mid major like us wants an at large bid with a 25 win season we need to replace Queens and UNCA with tougher power teams- and win on the road.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by EastHallApp » Sat Feb 24, 2024 5:31 pm

hapapp wrote:
Sat Feb 24, 2024 7:05 am
WVAPPeer wrote:
Fri Feb 23, 2024 10:37 pm
I think you might have those 2 conferences confused with the Big 10 :o
The Big 10 has been the most egregiously over rated conference in the past couple of tournaments but it may be the Big 12 this year. There's brackets that has as many 8-9 teams while the ACC might have four. No fan of the ACC but head to head they 9-3 v. the Big 12.
The Big 10 has underperformed too, but they don't get the same level of fawning that the Big 12 does.

And we hear every year how the MWC is better than a bunch of power conferences, including the ACC. And then they wipe out in the first round every year (SDSU obviously saving them last year).

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by agentpaul001 » Mon Feb 26, 2024 9:22 am

A couple teams have played their way off the bubble this past week and looking at some other bubble teams I still think JMU gets in if they win out & lose in Sunbelt Final to someone other then App (just since silly shit like that is an easy out for the committee).

On a happier note Grand Canyon's loss still keeps App in play for an #11 seed. I think they get the nod at the moment, but if they notch another loss it goes in Apps favor.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by hapapp » Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:04 am

Not making the case for JMU, but at 50 they have a NET better than UVA, Northwestern, Seton Hall, Providence, and Texas A&M in Lunardi's brackets. Granted he hasn't updated his since the weekend and that likely will change. Jerry Palm at CBS has updated his and he has UVA, Ole Miss (their NET is behind ours), Northwestern, and Utah. Obviously, more is considered than NET but JMU doesn't even get the next four out consideration. The one thing that those teams all in common is that they are from multi-bid conferences. No doubt, JMU's association with the Sun Belt hurts their cause.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by EastHallApp » Mon Feb 26, 2024 2:23 pm

hapapp wrote:
Mon Feb 26, 2024 11:04 am
Not making the case for JMU, but at 50 they have a NET better than UVA, Northwestern, Seton Hall, Providence, and Texas A&M in Lunardi's brackets. Granted he hasn't updated his since the weekend and that likely will change. Jerry Palm at CBS has updated his and he has UVA, Ole Miss (their NET is behind ours), Northwestern, and Utah. Obviously, more is considered than NET but JMU doesn't even get the next four out consideration. The one thing that those teams all in common is that they are from multi-bid conferences. No doubt, JMU's association with the Sun Belt hurts their cause.
You can play in a mid-major league, or you can play a terrible nonconference schedule. You probably can't do both and still get an at-large.

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