No bad losses. They've essentially steamrolled everyone but us.agentpaul001 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:30 amJMU doing what it can against their remaining opponents. They moved up to #50 with this most recent win and could quite possibly be in the 40s~ of net by tournament time.
ESPN Bubble Watch does a decent enough job forecasting possible bids and JMU is sitting with a group of 20 looking at about 8 bids. If they win out they're probably right on that cut line.
JMU on bubble but not us?
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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
JMU is legit good and those are two great wins for us. I would really like to see us put a couple of 20+ point wins on a few of the remaining teams we play. I watched some of their game last night and they could go from up 10 to up 20 quickly.
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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
They are reaching at large consideration. Playing the remainder of their season on the road gives them the opportunity to drop into the 40s, especially if they run up the score.agentpaul001 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:30 amJMU doing what it can against their remaining opponents. They moved up to #50 with this most recent win and could quite possibly be in the 40s~ of net by tournament time.
ESPN Bubble Watch does a decent enough job forecasting possible bids and JMU is sitting with a group of 20 looking at about 8 bids. If they win out they're probably right on that cut line.
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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
I would not be surprised. I am pulling for JMU to win out and their only remaining loss to be against us in the title game. I think it that happens we could see 2 bids for the first time.hapapp wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:46 amThey are reaching at large consideration. Playing the remainder of their season on the road gives them the opportunity to drop into the 40s, especially if they run up the score.agentpaul001 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:30 amJMU doing what it can against their remaining opponents. They moved up to #50 with this most recent win and could quite possibly be in the 40s~ of net by tournament time.
ESPN Bubble Watch does a decent enough job forecasting possible bids and JMU is sitting with a group of 20 looking at about 8 bids. If they win out they're probably right on that cut line.
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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Hard to beat a good team three times in a season. I don’t want any part of them in the championship game. I hope they lose in the semifinals. Our only shot is to win the tournament and hope they aren’t the ones standing in the way. On the flip side, if we beat them in the championship game, that might move us into a 11 seed?
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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
We don't have to beat them 3 times... Just once (possibly). I know what you mean, but statistics don't show you're less likely to beat a team after you've beaten them twice. Probably the opposite.NattyBumppo'sRevenge wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:55 amHard to beat a good team three times in a season. I don’t want any part of them in the championship game. I hope they lose in the semifinals. Our only shot is to win the tournament and hope they aren’t the ones standing in the way. On the flip side, if we beat them in the championship game, that might move us into a 11 seed?
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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
It is hard to beat a good team 3 times in a season. Not hard to beat a team like Coastal Carolina three times in a season. Your statistics just reference any team which in most cases would mean you have two wins over a team because that team is not good, but JMU is comparable to our team. How often has Duke or Carolina beat the other 3 times in the same season? And when it’s happened was one having a down year?appvette wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 11:58 amWe don't have to beat them 3 times... Just once (possibly). I know what you mean, but statistics don't show you're less likely to beat a team after you've beaten them twice. Probably the opposite.NattyBumppo'sRevenge wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:55 amHard to beat a good team three times in a season. I don’t want any part of them in the championship game. I hope they lose in the semifinals. Our only shot is to win the tournament and hope they aren’t the ones standing in the way. On the flip side, if we beat them in the championship game, that might move us into a 11 seed?
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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
I don't have the data in front of me, but I believe his point is accurate: When two teams are comparable, one of them having won the first two matchups does not make them less likely to win the third.NattyBumppo'sRevenge wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 12:11 pmIt is hard to beat a good team 3 times in a season. Not hard to beat a team like Coastal Carolina three times in a season. Your statistics just reference any team which in most cases would mean you have two wins over a team because that team is not good, but JMU is comparable to our team. How often has Duke or Carolina beat the other 3 times in the same season? And when it’s happened was one having a down year?appvette wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 11:58 amWe don't have to beat them 3 times... Just once (possibly). I know what you mean, but statistics don't show you're less likely to beat a team after you've beaten them twice. Probably the opposite.NattyBumppo'sRevenge wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:55 amHard to beat a good team three times in a season. I don’t want any part of them in the championship game. I hope they lose in the semifinals. Our only shot is to win the tournament and hope they aren’t the ones standing in the way. On the flip side, if we beat them in the championship game, that might move us into a 11 seed?
It IS hard to beat a good team three times, of course. But we've already done 2/3 of the work. Beating JMU a third time would be hard because they're good. But the fact that we've beaten them twice doesn't necessarily make it harder than it otherwise would be.
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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
What’s in the past is in the past. JMU is damn good so that makes them hard to beat. I’m also fairly certain that they think App State is a tough team to beat.
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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
I would bet that it is very rare for two teams to meet 3 times in a season and when it does happen I'd also bet that most of the time they split the first two. That's been said for years but I'd have to see a whole bunch of examples to even put any stock in it. As mentioned above we already handled the 2 of a possible 3 part. I'd rather be on our end of the equation.
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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
I’m not going to let something silly like factual data change my opinion on the matter.EastHallApp wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 2:24 pmI don't have the data in front of me, but I believe his point is accurate: When two teams are comparable, one of them having won the first two matchups does not make them less likely to win the third.NattyBumppo'sRevenge wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 12:11 pmIt is hard to beat a good team 3 times in a season. Not hard to beat a team like Coastal Carolina three times in a season. Your statistics just reference any team which in most cases would mean you have two wins over a team because that team is not good, but JMU is comparable to our team. How often has Duke or Carolina beat the other 3 times in the same season? And when it’s happened was one having a down year?appvette wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 11:58 amWe don't have to beat them 3 times... Just once (possibly). I know what you mean, but statistics don't show you're less likely to beat a team after you've beaten them twice. Probably the opposite.NattyBumppo'sRevenge wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:55 amHard to beat a good team three times in a season. I don’t want any part of them in the championship game. I hope they lose in the semifinals. Our only shot is to win the tournament and hope they aren’t the ones standing in the way. On the flip side, if we beat them in the championship game, that might move us into a 11 seed?
It IS hard to beat a good team three times, of course. But we've already done 2/3 of the work. Beating JMU a third time would be hard because they're good. But the fact that we've beaten them twice doesn't necessarily make it harder than it otherwise would be.
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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Clemson beat NCS 3 times last year and NCS got the bid and Clemson did notBigdaddyg1 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:45 pmI would bet that it is very rare for two teams to meet 3 times in a season and when it does happen I'd also bet that most of the time they split the first two. That's been said for years but I'd have to see a whole bunch of examples to even put any stock in it. As mentioned above we already handled the 2 of a possible 3 part. I'd rather be on our end of the equation.
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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
And Joe Lunardi so eloquently stated that head to head doesn't matterWVAPPeer wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 6:24 pmClemson beat NCS 3 times last year and NCS got the bid and Clemson did notBigdaddyg1 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:45 pmI would bet that it is very rare for two teams to meet 3 times in a season and when it does happen I'd also bet that most of the time they split the first two. That's been said for years but I'd have to see a whole bunch of examples to even put any stock in it. As mentioned above we already handled the 2 of a possible 3 part. I'd rather be on our end of the equation.
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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Yes - and there is no way I can accept that head to head makes no difference - Lunardi has the best job in the country - he fills out brackets all year long and he never gets it 100 correct and no one really cares - honestly just about any of us could have his info and get all the final 68 maybe missing one or two -Bigdaddyg1 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 6:52 pmAnd Joe Lunardi so eloquently stated that head to head doesn't matterWVAPPeer wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 6:24 pmClemson beat NCS 3 times last year and NCS got the bid and Clemson did notBigdaddyg1 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:45 pmI would bet that it is very rare for two teams to meet 3 times in a season and when it does happen I'd also bet that most of the time they split the first two. That's been said for years but I'd have to see a whole bunch of examples to even put any stock in it. As mentioned above we already handled the 2 of a possible 3 part. I'd rather be on our end of the equation.
Last edited by WVAPPeer on Fri Feb 23, 2024 8:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Well I guess a 15 point road win should be good for a 5 point drop in the NET. Who knows?
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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Q4 win…Bigdaddyg1 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:11 pmWell I guess a 15 point road win should be good for a 5 point drop in the NET. Who knows?
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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Yeah I was being a tad sarcastic. The remaining games won't boost us at all.hapapp wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:42 pmQ4 win…Bigdaddyg1 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:11 pmWell I guess a 15 point road win should be good for a 5 point drop in the NET. Who knows?
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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
With the win we dropped a spot to 75. Crazy system.Bigdaddyg1 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 23, 2024 6:44 amYeah I was being a tad sarcastic. The remaining games won't boost us at all.hapapp wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:42 pmQ4 win…Bigdaddyg1 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:11 pmWell I guess a 15 point road win should be good for a 5 point drop in the NET. Who knows?