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JMU on bubble but not us?

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by agentpaul001 » Thu Feb 15, 2024 4:50 pm

The only scenario where I see JMU getting an at-large is winning out + losing to Troy/ULL in the Final. If App goes 3-0 against them I don't see any scenario where the committee extends them an invite.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by ah59396 » Thu Feb 15, 2024 8:21 pm

JMU would likely have to crack the 30’s in NET to get in as an at-large. We have no chance sitting pretty in the 80’s right now.

Best we can both do is win, until they lose to us in the tourney. It would be nothing but good news for the Sun Belt to become a two-bid league again.
YNWA

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by Bigdaddyg1 » Thu Feb 15, 2024 9:32 pm

How about we win out and after winning our first tournament game that would mean 3 streaks of 8 wins in one season!

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by appdaze » Fri Feb 16, 2024 10:13 am

Back in the bracket, but again as the AQ. This kind of stuff should make it clear our only path is to win the conference tourney. Anything else is a pipe dream. 1 game at a time.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... redictions

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by hapapp » Fri Feb 16, 2024 10:48 am

appdaze wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2024 10:13 am
Back in the bracket, but again as the AQ. This kind of stuff should make it clear our only path is to win the conference tourney. Anything else is a pipe dream. 1 game at a time.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... redictions
Its pretty clear that's our only path. FWIW, our NET did fall back down into the 70s (from 82 to 79). I believe Madison is now 52.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by 311neers » Fri Feb 16, 2024 10:57 am

hapapp wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2024 10:48 am
appdaze wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2024 10:13 am
Back in the bracket, but again as the AQ. This kind of stuff should make it clear our only path is to win the conference tourney. Anything else is a pipe dream. 1 game at a time.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... redictions
Its pretty clear that's our only path. FWIW, our NET did fall back down into the 70s (from 82 to 79). I believe Madison is now 52.
Still very impressive. Would love to see where we'd be if we didn't flail vs. NIU and Tx State. My guess is probably up there with JMU. Just keep going 1-0!

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by Yosef1986 » Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:15 am

We just do not have the reputation in basketball as we do in football. At large is probably a long shot for us - not saying it is fair. The at large will probably go to P% schools with potentially a stronger schedule with a few more losses.

Hoping to win the Sunbelt - solves all problems.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by Bigdaddyg1 » Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:35 am

I count probably 10 teams above us in the NET with 10+ losses. If you are a power school then you should not be 14-10 at this point. That's the equivalent of being 5-4 in football and being ranked. Also when a team plays 30 basketball games over a very long season you should be penalized all year for losing 2 of your first 3 unless it's against a lower division. If we had played and lost to Lees McRae that's a different story.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by AppSt94 » Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:42 am

These are all projections made by dudes that get paid to make projections. I think that there is little chance for the Sun Belt to get two invites. However, if the committee members actually watch college basketball outside of the big boys, App is a team that fits the mold of a team that can wreck a bracket and be a Cinderella team. They defend the rim extremely well, they play outstanding defense and can score the ball at a decent %. If they get in and get the right bracket, they could definitely be a double digit seed that could be playing week 2 of the tourney.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by Yosef77 » Sat Feb 17, 2024 11:10 am

I have been looking at RealtimeRPI.com and App is at 41 there. The one thing I can't figure out is when you look at the team detail for any team on there, there are games they don't count. They list them as "scouting". Does anyone know what "scouting" means? Every team has some labeled as such and they are not included in the teams record. For App they are Queens, UNC Ashville, 1 of the Coastal games and 1 of the Georgia State games. Makes no sense to me.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by appdaze » Sat Feb 17, 2024 12:20 pm


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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by EastHallApp » Sun Feb 18, 2024 5:57 pm

Just a friendly reminder that RPI doesn't matter anymore.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by EastHallApp » Sun Feb 18, 2024 6:01 pm

Bigdaddyg1 wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:35 am
I count probably 10 teams above us in the NET with 10+ losses. If you are a power school then you should not be 14-10 at this point. That's the equivalent of being 5-4 in football and being ranked. Also when a team plays 30 basketball games over a very long season you should be penalized all year for losing 2 of your first 3 unless it's against a lower division. If we had played and lost to Lees McRae that's a different story.
That last point is a good one, and one that hurts us. Most computer rankings don't differentiate based on recency, and the committee is not supposed to consider things like record in the last 10 games, which used to be a factor. While there are some solid reasons for this, I think it's pretty common sense to look at a team like App and see that the first two games of the season bore little resemblance to the way we've played ever since. Unfortunately, when one of those was a loss to a Northern Illinois team that has turned out to be terrible, it's kind of an albatross.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by AppStFan1 » Sun Feb 18, 2024 8:27 pm

appdaze wrote:
Sat Feb 17, 2024 12:20 pm
This rpi has us at 55

https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/info/rpi-rankings
Up to 48 now!

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by Bigdaddyg1 » Mon Feb 19, 2024 2:13 pm

2 nice wins and all of a sudden the coaches poll drops us out yet 1 vote in the AP.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by biggie » Mon Feb 19, 2024 4:31 pm

And JMU gets 1 in Coaches.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by appdaze » Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:14 pm

Win the conference, it's all that matters. Rpi, polls, power ranks, etc just don't matter for a sunbelt team. Otherwise, enjoy the NIT.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by biggie » Mon Feb 19, 2024 11:37 pm

appdaze wrote:
Mon Feb 19, 2024 7:14 pm
Win the conference, it's all that matters. Rpi, polls, power ranks, etc just don't matter for a sunbelt team. Otherwise, enjoy the NIT.
True we all know we have to win.

But would be nice if everyone got used to seeing our name near the top 25 like football.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by BambooRdApp » Tue Feb 20, 2024 7:04 am

Winning the conference conference with only 2 losses does matter as it gets us over 25 wins. There are some things that play into the psychology of things. Magical 25 is one of them. For NCAA, we have to win tournament. To get NIT, 25 wins is important..NIT seems to be a popularity contest and believe ratings are driven by having P5 schools in the tournament whenever possible.
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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by agentpaul001 » Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:30 am

JMU doing what it can against their remaining opponents. They moved up to #50 with this most recent win and could quite possibly be in the 40s~ of net by tournament time.

ESPN Bubble Watch does a decent enough job forecasting possible bids and JMU is sitting with a group of 20 looking at about 8 bids. If they win out they're probably right on that cut line.

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