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JMU on bubble but not us?

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JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by biggie » Wed Feb 14, 2024 8:11 pm

From ESPN


“James Madison Dukes
If you were watching 2023-24 from the beginning, your first memory is likely James Madison's overtime win at Michigan State on the first day of the season. The Dukes then stayed undefeated all the way to January, lost at Southern Miss and were swept in two close games by Appalachian State. (Ask Auburn about the Mountaineers.) Then again, that's it as far as losses on the profile of this 22-3 team. If bids were determined by team sheets, Mark Byington's group would be a familiar topic of bubble discussion. Bids are not determined by team sheets, however, and the last Sun Belt member to earn an at-large was Middle Tennessee in 2013. So be it. JMU has played its way onto Bubble Watch's radar. (updated Feb. 12)“

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by BTK2000 » Wed Feb 14, 2024 8:54 pm

Losses count. App has dropped more games than they have

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by DomCrosetto » Wed Feb 14, 2024 9:21 pm

biggie wrote:
Wed Feb 14, 2024 8:11 pm
From ESPN


“James Madison Dukes
If you were watching 2023-24 from the beginning, your first memory is likely James Madison's overtime win at Michigan State on the first day of the season. The Dukes then stayed undefeated all the way to January, lost at Southern Miss and were swept in two close games by Appalachian State. (Ask Auburn about the Mountaineers.) Then again, that's it as far as losses on the profile of this 22-3 team. If bids were determined by team sheets, Mark Byington's group would be a familiar topic of bubble discussion. Bids are not determined by team sheets, however, and the last Sun Belt member to earn an at-large was Middle Tennessee in 2013. So be it. JMU has played its way onto Bubble Watch's radar. (updated Feb. 12)“
More of the product of not actually watching any Sun Belt basketball and just looking at stats. We know JMU is a good team but their SOS isn't impressive and unfortunately, the conference schedule (no matter who it is) doesn't really help. App is in a very similar situation, but as with BTK2000's comment, App's losses are much worse.

I'd say it's extremely unlikely for any Sun Belt team to be an at-large this season, but not 100% out of the question, if some other bubble teams slip up here toward the end.

One thing we do know, the conference champ goes for sure and App's going to want some redemption after being bounced in their first game last season to South Al.
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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by EastHallApp » Wed Feb 14, 2024 10:21 pm

We have slightly better wins than them, largely based on beating them H2H. But those losses do make a difference. Which is why they're 55 in the NET and we're 82.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by 311neers » Wed Feb 14, 2024 10:41 pm

BTK2000 wrote:
Wed Feb 14, 2024 8:54 pm
Losses count. App has dropped more games than they have
Bad ones at that.

Good news- Auburn just beat the 11th ranked team by 40…

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by scatman77 » Wed Feb 14, 2024 10:58 pm

311neers wrote:
Wed Feb 14, 2024 10:41 pm
BTK2000 wrote:
Wed Feb 14, 2024 8:54 pm
Losses count. App has dropped more games than they have
Bad ones at that.

Good news- Auburn just beat the 11th ranked team by 40…
....and made them like it.
We don't slide at Appalachian State. It's a sign of weakness.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by EastHallApp » Thu Feb 15, 2024 12:05 am

311neers wrote:
Wed Feb 14, 2024 10:41 pm
BTK2000 wrote:
Wed Feb 14, 2024 8:54 pm
Losses count. App has dropped more games than they have
Bad ones at that.

Good news- Auburn just beat the 11th ranked team by 40…
South Carolina is one of the bigger gaps between polls and efficiency rankings out there; NET had them at 45 before tonight's game.

Score one for the computers, I guess.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by MrCraig » Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:24 am

This is column filler. The only way the Sun Belt gets an at-large is if there aren't enough big-name teams to fill those spots. There are too many good teams in the bigger mid major conferences for them to let the Sun Belt have 2 bids. It sucks, but them's the breaks.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by hapapp » Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:31 am

MrCraig wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:24 am
This is column filler. The only way the Sun Belt gets an at-large is if there aren't enough big-name teams to fill those spots. There are too many good teams in the bigger mid major conferences for them to let the Sun Belt have 2 bids. It sucks, but them's the breaks.
I don't disagree but if they win out and then lose in the conference tournament final, they would have 30 wins. No 30 win team has been left out of the tournament. Of course, there's always a first time.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by AppDawg » Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:38 am

The NET is similar to the old BCS formula. Highly favors “Style Points”. Its not did you win, it’s “How”? Winning close or in OT counts much less than winning by 10 or more points. All of our OT games, essentially count as losses.

Our RPI is 59, JMU is 88. The exact opposite of the NET. RPI is based on pure wins and losses. Doesn’t factor in “how”.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by Bigdaddyg1 » Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:58 am

The how or style points should absolutely not be a factor. Those aspects of games are purely subjective in nature. There are way too many games going on and nobody making decisions on tournament selections knows if a coach called off the dogs in a game or simply tried to pour it on. If the field was chosen today based on the bodies of work by all of the teams does the eyeball test say we are one of the best 64/68 teams in the country? We as App fans probably think so. Are we truly better than a 5th place power conference team? Who knows. The only way you can ever really get a true measurement is to either expand the field or allow for every regular season champion and conference tournament champion and eliminate those 9 loss power schools who always slide in at the 8-11 seeds and get beat on the first weekend. It won't ever change so we just need to win the Belt. That being said is it really worth it to play 5 power schools every season to hopefully go 3-2 and hope that the 3 we beat stays good all year so that our NET is good, and that our conference is perceived to be good and that we don't lose any "bad" games?

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by MrCraig » Thu Feb 15, 2024 9:38 am

hapapp wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:31 am
MrCraig wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:24 am
This is column filler. The only way the Sun Belt gets an at-large is if there aren't enough big-name teams to fill those spots. There are too many good teams in the bigger mid major conferences for them to let the Sun Belt have 2 bids. It sucks, but them's the breaks.
I don't disagree but if they win out and then lose in the conference tournament final, they would have 30 wins. No 30 win team has been left out of the tournament. Of course, there's always a first time.
That's a good point. I was looking at this from a "if the tournament field was chosen today" perspective.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by appgrad95&97 » Thu Feb 15, 2024 10:50 am

The chances of the Belt getting two bids is extremely low, but it requires Troy to loose again. If we and JMU win out (with a Troy loss) we're the 1 seed and JMU would be the 2. I a pretty sure that is the only reasonable way we could play JMU in the conference finals.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by appdaze » Thu Feb 15, 2024 10:59 am

We have to win the conference tourney. End of the bottom of the pile story.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by spacemonkey » Thu Feb 15, 2024 11:27 am

appgrad95&97 wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2024 10:50 am
The chances of the Belt getting two bids is extremely low, but it requires Troy to loose again. If we and JMU win out (with a Troy loss) we're the 1 seed and JMU would be the 2. I a pretty sure that is the only reasonable way we could play JMU in the conference finals.
App or JMU could beat Troy in the Tournament to still have App Vs. JMU in the conference final.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by EastHallApp » Thu Feb 15, 2024 11:44 am

AppDawg wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:38 am
The NET is similar to the old BCS formula. Highly favors “Style Points”. Its not did you win, it’s “How”? Winning close or in OT counts much less than winning by 10 or more points. All of our OT games, essentially count as losses.

Our RPI is 59, JMU is 88. The exact opposite of the NET. RPI is based on pure wins and losses. Doesn’t factor in “how”.
Problem with the RPI was that it was actually more about who you played than your own wins and losses. IIRC, it was something like 25% your own W/L record, 50% your opponents' W/L record, and 25% your opponents' opponents' W/L record.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by appgrad95&97 » Thu Feb 15, 2024 12:45 pm

spacemonkey wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2024 11:27 am
appgrad95&97 wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2024 10:50 am
The chances of the Belt getting two bids is extremely low, but it requires Troy to loose again. If we and JMU win out (with a Troy loss) we're the 1 seed and JMU would be the 2. I a pretty sure that is the only reasonable way we could play JMU in the conference finals.
App or JMU could beat Troy in the Tournament to still have App Vs. JMU in the conference final.
Without a Troy loss or us finishing fourth, I don't see how.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by EastHallApp » Thu Feb 15, 2024 2:20 pm

appgrad95&97 wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2024 10:50 am
The chances of the Belt getting two bids is extremely low, but it requires Troy to loose again. If we and JMU win out (with a Troy loss) we're the 1 seed and JMU would be the 2. I a pretty sure that is the only reasonable way we could play JMU in the conference finals.
Don't think it would make much difference playing JMU in the finals vs. playing them in the semifinals.

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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by BambooRdApp » Thu Feb 15, 2024 2:38 pm

I think it matters overall. I would rather see jmu and Troy fight it out in the semis and we get the 4th place team whomever it may be. Right now it is ULL... which we play Saturday I believe.
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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?

Unread post by EastHallApp » Thu Feb 15, 2024 3:20 pm

BambooRdApp wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2024 2:38 pm
I think it matters overall. I would rather see jmu and Troy fight it out in the semis and we get the 4th place team whomever it may be. Right now it is ULL... which we play Saturday I believe.
Totally get that in terms of theoretically tiring them out and helping our chances of winning. I just meant in terms of the loser's chances of getting an at-large bid. (Which I agree are slim regardless.)

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