MBB vs Toledo, 1 p.m. Saturday, Feb. 10, Holmes Sweet Holmes, MAC/Sun Belt Challenge, be there

[BallantyneApp]

I'm assuming that quad wins change over the course of the season. We currently have 2 quad 1 wins- Auburn and JMU. JMU must have dropped to quad 2 when we beat them the second time. Two quad 4 losses are ultimately the difference for us. We needed those two dogs to turn around their seasons and at least climb to quad 3. Basically this ranking can punish a really hot team who started a bit slower. The voting done by humans uses more of the eyeball test. We are playing like a top 40ish type team but the NET says we are around 80. Awful way to view a team.

I think it’s still calculated at the time of the game? But there is different baskets for home and away. To count as quad 1 at home it’s like 1-36 but away it’s 1-75 or so. Which is why AU at home and JMU away are Q1 but JMU home is quad 2

[hapapp]

I'm assuming that quad wins change over the course of the season. We currently have 2 quad 1 wins- Auburn and JMU. JMU must have dropped to quad 2 when we beat them the second time. Two quad 4 losses are ultimately the difference for us. We needed those two dogs to turn around their seasons and at least climb to quad 3. Basically this ranking can punish a really hot team who started a bit slower. The voting done by humans uses more of the eyeball test. We are playing like a top 40ish type team but the NET says we are around 80. Awful way to view a team.

It was a Quad 1 win v JMU on the road and a Quad 2 win in Holmes. The quad points change based home v. away.

[appgrad95&97]

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-me ... season?amp


It’s safe to say other factors are included in the at-large process…. nice huh?

I maybe completely wrong, but having read that, and with my understanding of the new NIT selection rules we probably net a NET in the low to mid 70s to feel "safe" as an NIT selection.

[AppFan11]

I think we have to play it some more…. I think there is more to consider than just the NET. It has some shortcomings that the humans will need to correct.

[Bigdaddyg1]

I've heard a tremendous amount of discussion on local sports radio in the last few days regarding this process. The consensus among many people is that the process is extremely flawed. The NET and other similar models use criteria that can really skew teams. App for example is generally considered at least a top 50 team based on the human vote but only around 80 based on the computers. Obviously home court is huge for nearly every team but if margin of victory is used that's crazy. You can be up 15 with a minute left, put the walk-on guys in and the opponent might hit a couple of 3's. Final margin could be 9 but if the starters stayed in maybe it's 20. Many I've heard also question the entire quad piece. That makes almost no sense because teams can ebb and flow between quads during the year.

[Saint3333]

Don't worry too much about it. The powers that be are going to defer to who brings the TV viewers.

App isn't getting an at-large, neither is JMU. The winner of the SBC tournament is going dancing and I can say with confidence for the first time in a decade and a half we've got as good a shot as anyone.

[AppFan11]

I’d say the only the SunBelt gets two teams is if we beat JMU in the final and we both win out till then….. I do think we are pretty much a lock for the NIT…. Beat Marshall.

[Saint3333]

32 basketball conferences, 20 of those champions are currently ranked lower than JMU in NET.

Need to finish in the top 48 at a minimum to make the NCAA tournament with those 20 at-larges. JMU at 55 is going to need to win every game by 20 based upon playing six games against opponents that average 260 in NET. A lose, even to App in the finals knocks them out.

[appgrad95&97]

I’d say the only the SunBelt gets two teams is if we beat JMU in the final and we both win out till then….. I do think we are pretty much a lock for the NIT…. Beat Marshall.

It's hard to see us playing JMU in the final. If Troy wins out they are the one seed. If JMU wins out they are the two or three seed. If we win out, we're the two seed. App and JMU are on a path to play in the semis. Obviously things could change over the next six games. But some very interesting things would have to happen to have us and JMU in the finals.

[hapapp]

I’d say the only the SunBelt gets two teams is if we beat JMU in the final and we both win out till then….. I do think we are pretty much a lock for the NIT…. Beat Marshall.

If JMU were to win out and lose in the conference final, they would be 30-4. I don't believe a 30 win team has ever failed to make the field. There have been 28 & 29 win teams left home, Murray State won 29 in '14-'15 and St. Mary's won 28 in '17-'18. JMU currently sits at 55 in the NET.

[hapapp]

I've heard a tremendous amount of discussion on local sports radio in the last few days regarding this process. The consensus among many people is that the process is extremely flawed. The NET and other similar models use criteria that can really skew teams. App for example is generally considered at least a top 50 team based on the human vote but only around 80 based on the computers. Obviously home court is huge for nearly every team but if margin of victory is used that's crazy. You can be up 15 with a minute left, put the walk-on guys in and the opponent might hit a couple of 3's. Final margin could be 9 but if the starters stayed in maybe it's 20. Many I've heard also question the entire quad piece. That makes almost no sense because teams can ebb and flow between quads during the year.

An interesting case in the NET is to compart Bradley of the MVC and App.
Bradley APP
Quad 1 1-2 2-0
Quad 2 2-2 1-1
Quad 3 9-3 5-3
Quad 4 4-1 10-1
Record 16-8 20-5
NET 62 82

As we know there are other factors at play beyond Quad victories/losses. We have played more Quad 4 games than they have, which suggests the MVC is a better conference than the Belt. They've played 7 Quad 1-2 games, we've played 4.

[hapapp]

I've heard a tremendous amount of discussion on local sports radio in the last few days regarding this process. The consensus among many people is that the process is extremely flawed. The NET and other similar models use criteria that can really skew teams. App for example is generally considered at least a top 50 team based on the human vote but only around 80 based on the computers. Obviously home court is huge for nearly every team but if margin of victory is used that's crazy. You can be up 15 with a minute left, put the walk-on guys in and the opponent might hit a couple of 3's. Final margin could be 9 but if the starters stayed in maybe it's 20. Many I've heard also question the entire quad piece. That makes almost no sense because teams can ebb and flow between quads during the year.

An interesting case in the NET is to compart Bradley of the MVC and App.
Bradley APP
Quad 1 1-2 2-0
Quad 2 2-2 1-1
Quad 3 9-3 5-3
Quad 4 4-1 10-1
Record 16-8 20-5
NET 62 82

As we know there are other factors at play beyond Quad victories/losses. We have played more Quad 4 games than they have, which suggests the MVC is a better conference than the Belt. They've played 7 Quad 1-2 games, we've played 4. Our Quad 3 record is what is really hurting us.

[Stonewall]

Toledo hosting Akron tonight on ESPN PLUS. Two solid squads, and programs. Entertaining.

[NattyBumppo'sRevenge]

Toledo hosting Akron tonight on ESPN PLUS. Two solid squads, and programs. Entertaining.

I know I should probably pull for Toledo, but go Akron!!

[biggie]

Looks like Toledo has it.

[Stonewall]

Down to the wire. Toledo hangs on.

[AppStFan1]

Down to the wire. Toledo hangs on.

Glad to see Toledo win! Would love to see them win the MAC tourney so our win over them looks really strong.