Saint3333 wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 11:31 am

Bigdaddyg1 wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 11:27 am

Northern Illinois- 9/16 lost by 13 (make 7) still lose

Oregon State- 10/17 lost by 10 (make 7) still lose

UNCA- 14-22 lost by 13 (make 8) still lose

Troy- 11/18 lost by 4. This is the only game where you could make a case that free throws cost us the win.

If we shot 100% in all of the first 3 losses it was not enough to win. We lost because of either being out shot, turnovers or some other stat but free throw shooting, unless we gave up baskets on missed shots was not the reason.

Oregon State went to OT, make one more and we win holding other variables constant.

Said another way 50% of our loses could have been wins if we shot better from the line.

Said another way, 100% of our losses would have been wins if Chris Mantis had a FG% of 60% instead of 40%. No single statistic is the reason for a loss.

APPdiesel wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 10:28 am

MrCraig wrote: ↑

Thu Jan 25, 2024 9:46 pm

Lord, these threads are getting as bad as the football threads.
App basically dominated the first half. Southern came out on fire to start the second half, App took Southern’s hardest punch straight to the face and didn’t even fall down. Won by 10 and it wasn’t close for the last 7-ish minutes of the game. All of that with 2/5 starters missing significant time due to foul trouble.
Also, for the folks still panicking over free throws, we are running out of “games down the road” that we will lose due to missed free throws.

It’s ok to be critical when the criticism is valid.

I'm not saying criticism isn't acceptable. I'm pointing out the Chicken Littles who freak out whenever App isn't winning or act like this was a close game. App trailed for ~30 seconds of the entire game. That's domination with a considerable number of App's starters on the bench for considerable amounts of time. App is not a great free throw shooting team, but that isn't costing them many games.

Just as everyone on here is entitled to their opinion, I've got the right to tell them I think they are wrong.

MrCraig wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 2:25 pm

Saint3333 wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 11:31 am

Bigdaddyg1 wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 11:27 am

Northern Illinois- 9/16 lost by 13 (make 7) still lose

Oregon State- 10/17 lost by 10 (make 7) still lose

UNCA- 14-22 lost by 13 (make 8) still lose

Troy- 11/18 lost by 4. This is the only game where you could make a case that free throws cost us the win.

If we shot 100% in all of the first 3 losses it was not enough to win. We lost because of either being out shot, turnovers or some other stat but free throw shooting, unless we gave up baskets on missed shots was not the reason.

Oregon State went to OT, make one more and we win holding other variables constant.

Said another way 50% of our loses could have been wins if we shot better from the line.

Said another way, 100% of our losses would have been wins if Chris Mantis had a FG% of 60% instead of 40%. No single statistic is the reason for a loss.

I think that quarterback sacks is one of the most overrated stats in football. A player can record a sack on a one yard loss. I think what's important is what happens after the sack. If you get a sack on 3rd down and you force the opponent to punt it's a meaningful stat. If you get a sack and then they convert a play into a first down it's relatively meaningless- relatively. Same goes for forced turnovers in basketball. If you convert them into points they become more important. If we miss the front end of a one and one and give up a basket that's potentially a 4-5 point swing. If we miss and then our opponent also misses or turns the ball over the missed free throw is less important. I don't think some people here either consider or have looked to see what happened to us after every miss. You can absolutely pick apart every stat. How many relatively short bunnies have we not made this year? A 3' jump hook or layup should be easier than a free throw as it's closer to the basket. All aspects of the game will be magnified in the post season as the competition levels out or ramps up. While players typically try to shut out the noise in games it's easier said than done to slow the heartbeat and calm the nerves. Dudes who shoot around 90% are incredible.

MrCraig wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 2:25 pm

Saint3333 wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 11:31 am

Bigdaddyg1 wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 11:27 am

Northern Illinois- 9/16 lost by 13 (make 7) still lose

Oregon State- 10/17 lost by 10 (make 7) still lose

UNCA- 14-22 lost by 13 (make 8) still lose

Troy- 11/18 lost by 4. This is the only game where you could make a case that free throws cost us the win.

If we shot 100% in all of the first 3 losses it was not enough to win. We lost because of either being out shot, turnovers or some other stat but free throw shooting, unless we gave up baskets on missed shots was not the reason.

Oregon State went to OT, make one more and we win holding other variables constant.

Said another way 50% of our loses could have been wins if we shot better from the line.

Said another way, 100% of our losses would have been wins if Chris Mantis had a FG% of 60% instead of 40%. No single statistic is the reason for a loss.

Clearly both statements accurate, and I appreciate the hyperbolic nature of your example. But it is also accurate that we are a top quartile team despite being a bottom 10% FT shooting team. Quite simply, the margin for error late in the year will become smaller and that percentage is an easy target.

MrCraig wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 2:21 pm

Bootsy wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 1:13 pm

How often do we see poor FT shooting teams go deep in the NCAA tourney? We don’t, because March Madness introduces parity as it progresses. And FT’s become one of those difference makers.

So FT’s don’t necessarily matter…until the competition tightens up and suddenly they make all the difference.

Look up the free throw % of every team to make the final four the last 10 years or so. You'd be surprised how many are NOT in the top 25 in free throw %.
I wrote a whole research paper and did a speech on this for a public speaking class freshman year of college. FT% matters, but it doesn't matter any more than any other aspect of the game, and arguably matters less than overall shooting % , turnovers, and rebounds.

Curious, did your research include how many missed shots were rebounded by the shooting team and turned into two or three-point baskets, and/or missed second shots after made first shots resulted in two or three-point baskets for the shooting team. Sometimes missing a free throw results in more points. I would imagine it’s far less than the negative impact of a missed free throw though. I still think we need to make more free throws.

If we average 20 free throws a game and were hitting 75% that would be 15 made per game (on average). We are currently at 64.8% and based on 20 a game that's 12.96 (say 13). If we were at 75% we are in the top 50 nationally. So basically we need to knock in 3 more a game or make one extra 3 pointer. We are (gulp) 310th nationally in that department. We average 6.8 made per game. Make just one more and we jump to around 100 nationally. Basically it can be a fraction of a percent difference in several hundred spots for a given stat. I'd say that our defense and shot blocking greatly helps to overcome the deficiencies in these two offensive categories.

goapps93 wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 3:13 pm

MrCraig wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 2:21 pm

Bootsy wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 1:13 pm

How often do we see poor FT shooting teams go deep in the NCAA tourney? We don’t, because March Madness introduces parity as it progresses. And FT’s become one of those difference makers.

So FT’s don’t necessarily matter…until the competition tightens up and suddenly they make all the difference.

Look up the free throw % of every team to make the final four the last 10 years or so. You'd be surprised how many are NOT in the top 25 in free throw %.
I wrote a whole research paper and did a speech on this for a public speaking class freshman year of college. FT% matters, but it doesn't matter any more than any other aspect of the game, and arguably matters less than overall shooting % , turnovers, and rebounds.

Curious, did your research include how many missed shots were rebounded by the shooting team and turned into two or three-point baskets, and/or missed second shots after made first shots resulted in two or three-point baskets for the shooting team. Sometimes missing a free throw results in more points. I would imagine it’s far less than the negative impact of a missed free throw though. I still think we need to make more free throws.

I did not research that deeply. I was just trying to get a B haha. My point was that free throw % and win probability don’t correlate as much as many people think.

Check this out: https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1

GA State is the best free throw shooting team in the Sun Belt, but that obviously hasn’t led to more wins for them. There’s no overlap between the top 10 ranked college teams and the top 25 best free throw shooting teams.

This is not a good study in my opinion. We may be dominate in the SBC and OOC ..so FTs not needed to make a difference.
The FTs and ability to make them come into play tournament time (conference tournament and march Madness)... there will be close games and FTs make the difference in those games. We will be higher seed so theoretically underdog...and games will be tight...so every point counts.

MrCraig wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 2:32 pm

APPdiesel wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 10:28 am

MrCraig wrote: ↑

Thu Jan 25, 2024 9:46 pm

Lord, these threads are getting as bad as the football threads.
App basically dominated the first half. Southern came out on fire to start the second half, App took Southern’s hardest punch straight to the face and didn’t even fall down. Won by 10 and it wasn’t close for the last 7-ish minutes of the game. All of that with 2/5 starters missing significant time due to foul trouble.
Also, for the folks still panicking over free throws, we are running out of “games down the road” that we will lose due to missed free throws.

It’s ok to be critical when the criticism is valid.

I'm not saying criticism isn't acceptable. I'm pointing out the Chicken Littles who freak out whenever App isn't winning or act like this was a close game. App trailed for ~30 seconds of the entire game. That's domination with a considerable number of App's starters on the bench for considerable amounts of time. App is not a great free throw shooting team, but that isn't costing them many games.

Just as everyone on here is entitled to their opinion, I've got the right to tell them I think they are wrong.

You are entitled to do that. But to your original point, there are also a lot of sycophants on the football threads who want to shut down anyone who's critical. The "Trust the coach" (even when things aren't going well), "I told you so", "How much do you donate? Oh less than I do, STFU" crowd is very real. It's all gate keeping.

Georgia Southern is a bad team. They are #314 in the NET. They are AWFUL. Allowing it to be a 1 possession game mid way through the 2nd half is concerning. Free throw shooting does leave a lot to be desired and it can be better. 58% for the game is the difference (in this one) between keeping a comfortable margin all game vs letting it get close in the 2nd half. I also believe the criticism is predictive. If we can't do better than 58% it will cost us at some point.

You may see criticism as a bad thing but I say more people than ever comment on these game threads. Engagement is way up because more people than ever care. That's a good thing.

Just one person’s opinion but Georgia Southern wasn’t a bad/awful team last night. And the Eagles will give us fits in Statesboro on Feb. 3.

AppGrad78 wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 6:46 pm

Just one person’s opinion but Georgia Southern wasn’t a bad/awful team last night. And the Eagles will give us fits in Statesboro on Feb. 3.

This.

APPdiesel wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:59 pm

MrCraig wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 2:32 pm

APPdiesel wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 10:28 am

MrCraig wrote: ↑

Thu Jan 25, 2024 9:46 pm

Lord, these threads are getting as bad as the football threads.
App basically dominated the first half. Southern came out on fire to start the second half, App took Southern’s hardest punch straight to the face and didn’t even fall down. Won by 10 and it wasn’t close for the last 7-ish minutes of the game. All of that with 2/5 starters missing significant time due to foul trouble.
Also, for the folks still panicking over free throws, we are running out of “games down the road” that we will lose due to missed free throws.

It’s ok to be critical when the criticism is valid.

I'm not saying criticism isn't acceptable. I'm pointing out the Chicken Littles who freak out whenever App isn't winning or act like this was a close game. App trailed for ~30 seconds of the entire game. That's domination with a considerable number of App's starters on the bench for considerable amounts of time. App is not a great free throw shooting team, but that isn't costing them many games.

Just as everyone on here is entitled to their opinion, I've got the right to tell them I think they are wrong.

You are entitled to do that. But to your original point, there are also a lot of sycophants on the football threads who want to shut down anyone who's critical. The "Trust the coach" (even when things aren't going well), "I told you so", "How much do you donate? Oh less than I do, STFU" crowd is very real. It's all gate keeping.

Georgia Southern is a bad team. They are #314 in the NET. They are AWFUL. Allowing it to be a 1 possession game mid way through the 2nd half is concerning. Free throw shooting does leave a lot to be desired and it can be better. 58% for the game is the difference (in this one) between keeping a comfortable margin all game vs letting it get close in the 2nd half. I also believe the criticism is predictive. If we can't do better than 58% it will cost us at some point.

You may see criticism as a bad thing but I say more people than ever comment on these game threads. Engagement is way up because more people than ever care. That's a good thing.

I disagree that Southern is awful. I think they WERE awful, and are now just bad. They’ve improved over the course of the season. App is still a clearly better team, and I think that showed whenever the 5 starters were on court together and in the last quarter of the game.
I agree the gate keeping in the football threads is exhausting, but I also get annoyed at the people who immediately start freaking out or being overly critical without any context.
App has only lost 4 games and is first in conference. Are there things to improve? Always. But let’s try to look at the positives sometimes.

BambooRdApp wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:32 pm

This is not a good study in my opinion. We may be dominate in the SBC and OOC ..so FTs not needed to make a difference.
The FTs and ability to make them come into play tournament time (conference tournament and march Madness)... there will be close games and FTs make the difference in those games. We will be higher seed so theoretically underdog...and games will be tight...so every point counts.

Louisiana won the Sun Belt tourney last year with a 67.1% free throw percentage. Good for a ranking of 320 out of 363 teams. Just one stat will not determine a win or loss. Making more free throws might make us all feel better, but as long as the Mountaineers are making 2s and 3s and stopping the other guys, it won’t matter.

MrCraig wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:05 pm

goapps93 wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 3:13 pm

MrCraig wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 2:21 pm

Bootsy wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 1:13 pm

How often do we see poor FT shooting teams go deep in the NCAA tourney? We don’t, because March Madness introduces parity as it progresses. And FT’s become one of those difference makers.

So FT’s don’t necessarily matter…until the competition tightens up and suddenly they make all the difference.

Look up the free throw % of every team to make the final four the last 10 years or so. You'd be surprised how many are NOT in the top 25 in free throw %.
I wrote a whole research paper and did a speech on this for a public speaking class freshman year of college. FT% matters, but it doesn't matter any more than any other aspect of the game, and arguably matters less than overall shooting % , turnovers, and rebounds.

Curious, did your research include how many missed shots were rebounded by the shooting team and turned into two or three-point baskets, and/or missed second shots after made first shots resulted in two or three-point baskets for the shooting team. Sometimes missing a free throw results in more points. I would imagine it’s far less than the negative impact of a missed free throw though. I still think we need to make more free throws.

I did not research that deeply. I was just trying to get a B haha. My point was that free throw % and win probability don’t correlate as much as many people think.

Check this out: https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1

GA State is the best free throw shooting team in the Sun Belt, but that obviously hasn’t led to more wins for them. There’s no overlap between the top 10 ranked college teams and the top 25 best free throw shooting teams.

Bs get degrees. That was a great topic for a freshman speech class. I wasn’t trying to criticize your research and take on the subject, quite the opposite. It made me think a little more deeply. A missed free throw opens the opportunity for the offense to score more points. I would imagine, however, that the analytics suggest the defense rebounds more missed free throws than the offense. With that being the case, I’ll always root for better free throw percentage. Score as many points as you can with the clock not running. I am the product of a basketball coaching father and spent a lot of time practicing them. It’s hard to let that go.

When playing a sport you’d prefer to be proficient at all aspects. Explaining away shortcomings is a trait I don’t subscribe too.

Especially when they are "free" throws!!

To express concern over a relative poor free throw shooting percentage doesn't seem unwarranted to me. Given the fine line between winning and losing it certainly can come into play. And given the need to win the conference to make the NCAA tournament, it certainly could make a difference there. But, no, it shouldn't overshadow everything positive about the season to date.

For the record, out of the entire team only three players are currently over 70% from the line.

goapps93 wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 8:52 pm

MrCraig wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:05 pm

goapps93 wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 3:13 pm

MrCraig wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 2:21 pm

Bootsy wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 1:13 pm

How often do we see poor FT shooting teams go deep in the NCAA tourney? We don’t, because March Madness introduces parity as it progresses. And FT’s become one of those difference makers.

So FT’s don’t necessarily matter…until the competition tightens up and suddenly they make all the difference.

Look up the free throw % of every team to make the final four the last 10 years or so. You'd be surprised how many are NOT in the top 25 in free throw %.
I wrote a whole research paper and did a speech on this for a public speaking class freshman year of college. FT% matters, but it doesn't matter any more than any other aspect of the game, and arguably matters less than overall shooting % , turnovers, and rebounds.

Curious, did your research include how many missed shots were rebounded by the shooting team and turned into two or three-point baskets, and/or missed second shots after made first shots resulted in two or three-point baskets for the shooting team. Sometimes missing a free throw results in more points. I would imagine it’s far less than the negative impact of a missed free throw though. I still think we need to make more free throws.

I did not research that deeply. I was just trying to get a B haha. My point was that free throw % and win probability don’t correlate as much as many people think.

Check this out: https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1

GA State is the best free throw shooting team in the Sun Belt, but that obviously hasn’t led to more wins for them. There’s no overlap between the top 10 ranked college teams and the top 25 best free throw shooting teams.

Bs get degrees. That was a great topic for a freshman speech class. I wasn’t trying to criticize your research and take on the subject, quite the opposite. It made me think a little more deeply. A missed free throw opens the opportunity for the offense to score more points. I would imagine, however, that the analytics suggest the defense rebounds more missed free throws than the offense. With that being the case, I’ll always root for better free throw percentage. Score as many points as you can with the clock not running. I am the product of a basketball coaching father and spent a lot of time practicing them. It’s hard to let that go.

I coached for a while too, and we practiced the hell out of free throws, but we practiced rebounding, shooting, defensive switches, screens, etc. far more.
The only point I’m trying to make is that, if you made a list of important stats for winning basketball games ranked by importance, free throws wouldn’t be as high as some think.
Free throw shooting is absolutely a weakness for this App team, but as someone has pointed out, it’s really only cost one game so far, and there’s no actual proof that it will cost games in the future.

I’ll add, free throw shooting is a weakness, but I think shot selection throughout the game is a bigger flaw in App’s game this year. Every game I’ve watched the team goes through these scoring droughts because they seem to get impatient and just throw garbage shots at the rim from wherever. First look is rarely the best look.

MrCraig wrote: ↑

Sat Jan 27, 2024 9:43 am

goapps93 wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 8:52 pm

MrCraig wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:05 pm

goapps93 wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 3:13 pm

MrCraig wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 2:21 pm

Look up the free throw % of every team to make the final four the last 10 years or so. You'd be surprised how many are NOT in the top 25 in free throw %.
I wrote a whole research paper and did a speech on this for a public speaking class freshman year of college. FT% matters, but it doesn't matter any more than any other aspect of the game, and arguably matters less than overall shooting % , turnovers, and rebounds.

Curious, did your research include how many missed shots were rebounded by the shooting team and turned into two or three-point baskets, and/or missed second shots after made first shots resulted in two or three-point baskets for the shooting team. Sometimes missing a free throw results in more points. I would imagine it’s far less than the negative impact of a missed free throw though. I still think we need to make more free throws.

I did not research that deeply. I was just trying to get a B haha. My point was that free throw % and win probability don’t correlate as much as many people think.

Check this out: https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1

GA State is the best free throw shooting team in the Sun Belt, but that obviously hasn’t led to more wins for them. There’s no overlap between the top 10 ranked college teams and the top 25 best free throw shooting teams.

Bs get degrees. That was a great topic for a freshman speech class. I wasn’t trying to criticize your research and take on the subject, quite the opposite. It made me think a little more deeply. A missed free throw opens the opportunity for the offense to score more points. I would imagine, however, that the analytics suggest the defense rebounds more missed free throws than the offense. With that being the case, I’ll always root for better free throw percentage. Score as many points as you can with the clock not running. I am the product of a basketball coaching father and spent a lot of time practicing them. It’s hard to let that go.

I coached for a while too, and we practiced the hell out of free throws, but we practiced rebounding, shooting, defensive switches, screens, etc. far more.
The only point I’m trying to make is that, if you made a list of important stats for winning basketball games ranked by importance, free throws wouldn’t be as high as some think.
Free throw shooting is absolutely a weakness for this App team, but as someone has pointed out, it’s really only cost one game so far, and there’s no actual proof that it will cost games in the future.

I’ll add, free throw shooting is a weakness, but I think shot selection throughout the game is a bigger flaw in App’s game this year. Every game I’ve watched the team goes through these scoring droughts because they seem to get impatient and just throw garbage shots at the rim from wherever. First look is rarely the best look.

This line is funny.."there’s no actual proof that it will cost games in the future."
Hmm, if I knew the outcomes of games that yet to be played...I am moving to Vegas and becoming a multi -trillionaire

BambooRdApp wrote: ↑

Sat Jan 27, 2024 9:52 am

MrCraig wrote: ↑

Sat Jan 27, 2024 9:43 am

goapps93 wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 8:52 pm

MrCraig wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 4:05 pm

goapps93 wrote: ↑

Fri Jan 26, 2024 3:13 pm

Curious, did your research include how many missed shots were rebounded by the shooting team and turned into two or three-point baskets, and/or missed second shots after made first shots resulted in two or three-point baskets for the shooting team. Sometimes missing a free throw results in more points. I would imagine it’s far less than the negative impact of a missed free throw though. I still think we need to make more free throws.

I did not research that deeply. I was just trying to get a B haha. My point was that free throw % and win probability don’t correlate as much as many people think.

Check this out: https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1

GA State is the best free throw shooting team in the Sun Belt, but that obviously hasn’t led to more wins for them. There’s no overlap between the top 10 ranked college teams and the top 25 best free throw shooting teams.

Bs get degrees. That was a great topic for a freshman speech class. I wasn’t trying to criticize your research and take on the subject, quite the opposite. It made me think a little more deeply. A missed free throw opens the opportunity for the offense to score more points. I would imagine, however, that the analytics suggest the defense rebounds more missed free throws than the offense. With that being the case, I’ll always root for better free throw percentage. Score as many points as you can with the clock not running. I am the product of a basketball coaching father and spent a lot of time practicing them. It’s hard to let that go.

I coached for a while too, and we practiced the hell out of free throws, but we practiced rebounding, shooting, defensive switches, screens, etc. far more.
The only point I’m trying to make is that, if you made a list of important stats for winning basketball games ranked by importance, free throws wouldn’t be as high as some think.
Free throw shooting is absolutely a weakness for this App team, but as someone has pointed out, it’s really only cost one game so far, and there’s no actual proof that it will cost games in the future.

I’ll add, free throw shooting is a weakness, but I think shot selection throughout the game is a bigger flaw in App’s game this year. Every game I’ve watched the team goes through these scoring droughts because they seem to get impatient and just throw garbage shots at the rim from wherever. First look is rarely the best look.

This line is funny.."there’s no actual proof that it will cost games in the future."
Hmm, if I knew the outcomes of games that yet to be played...I am moving to Vegas and becoming a multi -trillionaire

THAT IS EXACTLY MY POINT!!!!!!
So much doom and gloom from some posters over something we have no idea will actually happen!

I think this better explains my opinion: free throw shooting is like batting average in baseball. Most good teams shoot free throws well just like most good baseball players have a good batting average, but not always!!!!
Some baseball players have a mediocre batting average but compensate by hitting a lot of home runs and/or playing great defense. Same with basketball players and FT. I’ll take a basketball player with handles, great shooting, and solid defense who can’t hit a FT over some guy who’s great at FT but doesn’t play defense or won’t rebound.