Loftier expectations

bigdaddyg · Unread post by **bigdaddyg** » Fri Jun 05, 2015 10:37 am

Probably a no-brainer of a question it made me think about it for a minute. How much do the predictions of winning the Sunbelt and getting a bowl invite outweigh the predictions from years ago of App taking another FCS NC? Consider the national perception of the Sunbelt Conference. I think that on a national scale both might move the needle about the same much. Don't get me wrong, I lean heavily toward the later by a mile. The Michigan win put us on the map for a good while but in reality the FCS in general gets no real pub. NDSU got Game Day to come up there (last season?) but for the most part nobody pays them any mind. To me it ultimately comes down to marquee wins. Gotta beat Clemson!!

EastHallApp · Unread post by **EastHallApp** » Fri Jun 05, 2015 11:52 am

I generally agree with your premise. While the Sun Belt is obviously a higher level of football than FCS, realistically I'd guess a very small segment of fans (other than the fans of the teams involved) care or could even tell you who won either in a given year.

Marquee wins are important, though I don't think it's essential that we beat Clemson by any means. Saying otherwise would be setting the team up to fail. But a Sun Belt team that goes, say, 11-1 - even if none of those are "marquee" wins - is probably going to be in the top 25, which would be a huge step. Remember that a one-loss Northern Illinois team went to the Orange Bowl a few years back with no marquee wins.

The Sun Belt always seems to produce a champion with 8 or 9 wins, which doesn't make anyone take notice. When someone wins the league going 10-2 or especially 11-1, I think that could start to change.

The other thing that I think is important to note is that national relevance is more of a medium- to long-range goal for App. We're talking year 2 in FBS - winning 8 games and going to a bowl would be a fantastic achievement at this stage. Not to say that's a best-case scenario - it isn't. But I think it would be a successful season and a sign that the program is moving in the right direction.

bigdaddyg · Unread post by **bigdaddyg** » Fri Jun 05, 2015 12:13 pm

Excellent points. I wonder what looks better (ala Northern Illinois), to have a close early season loss then rattle off about 9-10 wins (most convincingly) to go 11-1 for a possible New Year's Day bowl, or take a seemingly bad conference loss late in the season to go 11-1 with a close early season win over a Clemson. I look back at the Michigan win. The shine would have come off slightly had they not pulled things together and beaten Florida in their bowl game. I recall feeling great after the third straight NC and bragged about it whenever possible but very few people even knew that the games even existed.

I guess that the best way to go is to be patient, hope for the best, take 8-9 wins and a nice bowl invite, then look for bigger and better things year after year. It is hard to do especially after being spoiled for so many years, even at the FCS level.

JTApps1 · Unread post by **JTApps1** » Fri Jun 05, 2015 3:17 pm

My expectations are to compete for the Sun Belt Title this year and every year going forward. With the increase in competition at the FBS level it would be difficult to expect to win 10+ games, the Sun Belt title, and go to the top SB bowl or access bowl each year. Just look at the history of programs at this level and it's easy to see how cyclical the dominant programs are. As long as we can be in the hunt most years good things will happen with this program.

On the flip side, most years in FCS I expected to win 9 or 10 games, win the SoCon, and get a win or 2 in the playoffs. Anything less was a huge disappointment.