2.9% Playoff chance

[NattyBumppo'sRevenge]

ESPN does not seem to be very bullish on us in general. We dropped in the FPI after week 1 and are projected at 7-5.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/f ... s/dir/desc

Let's repeat that statement.

App DROPPED 9 positions this week due to a FPI perceived WEAK performance against ETSU. JMU JUMPED 10 positions due to FPI perceived good performance against UNCC.

I keep telling everyone we have to beat the crap out of the weaker teams on our schedule to raise in the ratings, both computer and people polls. Why do you think 4 SEC teams won by OVER 60 pts this past weekend? Because they know how the system works. We better wake up or we will be sitting in the corner at the end of the season whether we win the SBC or not.

You could not be more correct in your position. We should have beat ETSU by much more. Worst part is that I think we were trying to.

More important for us to beat Clemson in our chance to make the playoffs than the margin of victory over ETSU. Why show our hand to Clemson in the ETSU game?

[Bigdaddyg1]

I believe style points and unfortunately margin of victory probably matters now- remember when they used to say margin didn’t factor in? That being said it’s not like the coaches were getting together in the second half saying “come on guys we need more points for a possible loss playoff seed!”

[EastHallApp]

FPI means nothing after one week.

I disagree. The mouse runs college football. A slow start in FPI can leave a bad perception throughout the year to the money movers and could leave us out of the playoffs if we mange to be a top 5 G5 team and could get the nod. We have to impress the money movers and the gamblers with big point spread wins that make it appear on paper that we have a shot at upsetting someone in the playoffs thus appeasing the gamblers. So yes, even early season FPI matters in today's college football world.

I just mean it doesn't matter in the sense that it's an analytics-based ranking system without enough data to make a meaningful analysis. There will always be wonky results in such metrics early in the season.

I'm not saying FPI doesn't matter at all, but I promise you, if we're #12 in the FPI in week 9, absolutely no one will remember or care where we were ranked after week 1.

[McLeansvilleAppFan]

JMU 21.1%

That one is laughable.

I could see them being around us, but 10x our chances. Do they just throw a dart and see where it lands.

[311neers]

Better odds than FSU!

[Yosefus]

Better odds than FSU!

Man I would hate to be them right now.
As far as our chances go, none of these odds matter until the end of the season. We have to be one of 5 highest ranked conference champions. On my mind losing to Clemson doesn't change anything but 2 losses and we won't be in unless all other G5 champs are sitting with 3 or more L's.

[AtlAppMan]

Better odds than FSU!

Man I would hate to be them right now.
As far as our chances go, none of these odds matter until the end of the season. We have to be one of 5 highest ranked conference champions. On my mind losing to Clemson doesn't change anything but 2 losses and we won't be in unless all other G5 champs are sitting with 3 or more L's.

"losing to Clemson doesn't change anything"

I have to strongly disagree with you there. We need EVERY marque victory on our resume we can get. Clemson is a very known brand that would look good on our resume to the committee members. If Clemson turns out good this year it may be THE deciding factor. If they end up in middle of pack of ACC then we "should have won" if we are a true CFP candidate. You can't treat these games in such a cavalier manner any more if you want to make the CFP. Every W and L count. Some more than others.

[Bigdaddyg1]

I’ve said for years that if it were up to me there would be no rankings until after 6 games. I know it’s all part of the sport but it gets ridiculous to watch a game week one and hear the ranking references. If a team is ranked 17 and loses to an “unranked” team week 1 is that really a win over a ranked team? So much can and will change every week. FSU was still ranked like 10th coming into last night. If any reasonable App follower is putting an ounce of thought into this ranking they need to relax. I think we probably could have scored again last Saturday but does anyone really think that would make any difference? It ended up as a comfortable win and we moved on.

[Pikapp79]

The gap will be so wide in a few years mid to lower level teams will not be able to compete with teams flush with NIL.

[ericsaid]

Makes sense to me. While we can potentially afford a Clemson loss, it would hurt our chances quite a bit. A loss to any of Liberty, JMU, Marshall, Stink, Coastal removed us entirely from the conversation (unless we upset Clemson).

JMU has a very beatable P4 - UNC.

I will say I think Tulane is overrated on this. They have Kansas State and then Oklahoma coming up. Almost certainly 2 losses. Boise also has Oregon.

JMU’s QB is going to lose them a few games this year. I don’t expect them to be better than 5-3 in Sun Belt play.

[MrCraig]

I'm going to keep beating this drum- ESPN FPI is a garbage metric. It has almost no basis in math, science, statistics, or reality. This list was made using FPI. It doesn't matter if it's after week 1 or week 10, FPI is trash.
If I were in charge, I'd motion to ban anything that uses FPI from this board. Yes, I feel that strongly about it.

[Bigdaddyg1]

I think ESPN used to put a college football eliminator thing (maybe one year) that basically trimmed teams off of the CFP each week as they either lost or were deemed to pretty much be out. There are probably about 6 or so fairly legit G5 teams who are basically already in playoff mode. To say a team can lose a certain game and still be in it is yet to be determined. We probably need to be big time Troy fans Saturday as they play Memphis. The Tigers only apparent potential tough game is FSU but…

We have the round robin with Liberty and ECU (who doesn’t play Memphis) so the team who goes 2-0 in those is in good shape.
Boise gets Oregon but doesn’t play Air Force and has an otherwise possibly tough non conference slate so who knows about them. You know the committee would love to put a service academy into that 12 slot.

[appdaze]

I see a lot of uninformed hate toward these rankings. These rankings 10000000% matter. College football is a popularity contest as much as it is an on the field contest. The FPI does indeed have a formula it is based on and is apparently about 75% correct in predicting game outcomes. That aside, it matters because the more your name stays in the media and people/polls keep saying you have a chance then the greater chance you will have. Those that keep touting the CFP as some great scale of team ability should read the article to understand that it's really just the opinion of 13 people. That's it. They have some basic criteria they look at but at the end of the day it's just their opinion. Besides winning on the field, you HAVE to win the PR game by staying in these "useless" polls and rankings. It may be "useless" to you, but it isn't to our football program.


https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cf ... cess-works

[Bigdaddyg1]

In the entire history of the CFP using a committee have they ever elevated a team from say, number 8 in the AP pole (like week 11) to number 1 or 2? As far as predicting games generally speaking don’t at least 75% go chalk? How many “upsets” have occurred so far? Maybe a couple? Rankings are fine and needed as a measuring stick but to focus on them before anyone plays a game is crazy. Let teams play half a season then see who is good.

[appdaze]

In the entire history of the CFP using a committee have they ever elevated a team from say, number 8 in the AP pole (like week 11) to number 1 or 2? As far as predicting games generally speaking don’t at least 75% go chalk? How many “upsets” have occurred so far? Maybe a couple? Rankings are fine and needed as a measuring stick but to focus on them before anyone plays a game is crazy. Let teams play half a season then see who is good.

We don't have to 100% focus on them but we have to understand that they do truly matter foe perception of our program by the committee. They can't just be dismissed.

As far as the 75% thing goes, that's just what I had read. So as an individual game predictor, the fpi is probably no better than any other metric in that regard.

[AtlAppMan]

Even though folks don't like some computer rankings like FPI they do have some value. They try to translate efficiency of offense/defense into a comparative value against other opponents. Therefore the assumption (and there is definitely truth to it) is that the more efficient and consistent you are the more likely you are to win.

In ETSU game
App had 11 possessions, we scored on 6/11 possessions.
On 2 possessions we went 3 and out, on 1 possession we turned it over on downs, punted once and end of game on the last one.

When you look at that against a weak FCS opponent that looks like a significant amount of inefficiency. If you extrapolate that against a stronger opponent it means you score much less and allow much more scores against you.

App should not be having 3 and outs and should be able to get a 4th and 1 at will against ETSU. This number would be expected to be much larger against stronger opponents. This is factual results (not my emotional feeling "thinking" we can do better the next time) so until we prove we can do better the numbers don't reflect well on us. WHY would one expect a better result?

This doesn't mean we can't get better as the season progresses, and it is reasonable to expect that, however, this is a comparison against where OTHER teams are at the same point in the season. They can also reasonably expected to get better but they may be ahead of us at this point.

[AppWyo]

Realistically, the college football playoff would like to get Liberty in that 12th spot, because of their weak schedule. This would confirm that the non-autonomy five do not belong in the field of the autonomy schools. It is important that whoever is the representative for the non-autonomy five to win the game to not have the non-autonomy five left behind in the future.

Another note, I saw where a BYU fan said that the Group of 5 should form their own playoff. I thought to myself you would not be saying that if you were still a group of five team. It is something how your thoughts change when you are on the inside looking out instead the other way.

I hope that App not only gets in the playoffs, but they are there for the championship game and, of course, wins the whole thing. It will have a bigger impact on college football and Appalachian than the Michigan Win.

Since App is playing an air raid siren on third down on defense now as well as Hells Bells why do they not try and play Dueling Banjos as well or for the really old school on this board Feuding Banjos or maybe only on fourth down...

[hapapp]

Realistically, the college football playoff would like to get Liberty in that 12th spot, because of their weak schedule. This would confirm that the non-autonomy five do not belong in the field of the autonomy schools. It is important that whoever is the representative for the non-autonomy five to win the game to not have the non-autonomy five left behind in the future.

Another note, I saw where a BYU fan said that the Group of 5 should form their own playoff. I thought to myself you would not be saying that if you were still a group of five team. It is something how your thoughts change when you are on the inside looking out instead the other way.

I hope that App not only gets in the playoffs, but they are there for the championship game and, of course, wins the whole thing. It will have a bigger impact on college football and Appalachian than the Michigan Win.

Since App is playing an air raid siren on third down on defense now as well as Hells Bells why do they not try and play Dueling Banjos as well or for the really old school on this board Feuding Banjos or maybe only on fourth down...

I do sorta like the idea of a g5 playoff among the four champs who don't make the CFP.

[AtlAppMan]

Realistically, the college football playoff would like to get Liberty in that 12th spot, because of their weak schedule. This would confirm that the non-autonomy five do not belong in the field of the autonomy schools. It is important that whoever is the representative for the non-autonomy five to win the game to not have the non-autonomy five left behind in the future.

Another note, I saw where a BYU fan said that the Group of 5 should form their own playoff. I thought to myself you would not be saying that if you were still a group of five team. It is something how your thoughts change when you are on the inside looking out instead the other way.

I hope that App not only gets in the playoffs, but they are there for the championship game and, of course, wins the whole thing. It will have a bigger impact on college football and Appalachian than the Michigan Win.

Since App is playing an air raid siren on third down on defense now as well as Hells Bells why do they not try and play Dueling Banjos as well or for the really old school on this board Feuding Banjos or maybe only on fourth down...

I do sorta like the idea of a g5 playoff among the four champs who don't make the CFP.

Isn't that called bowls?

[hapapp]

Realistically, the college football playoff would like to get Liberty in that 12th spot, because of their weak schedule. This would confirm that the non-autonomy five do not belong in the field of the autonomy schools. It is important that whoever is the representative for the non-autonomy five to win the game to not have the non-autonomy five left behind in the future.

Another note, I saw where a BYU fan said that the Group of 5 should form their own playoff. I thought to myself you would not be saying that if you were still a group of five team. It is something how your thoughts change when you are on the inside looking out instead the other way.

I hope that App not only gets in the playoffs, but they are there for the championship game and, of course, wins the whole thing. It will have a bigger impact on college football and Appalachian than the Michigan Win.

Since App is playing an air raid siren on third down on defense now as well as Hells Bells why do they not try and play Dueling Banjos as well or for the really old school on this board Feuding Banjos or maybe only on fourth down...

I do sorta like the idea of a g5 playoff among the four champs who don't make the CFP.

Isn't that called bowls?

Yes...but the winners could play another game.