Clemson game thread and discussion

[AppSt94]

I find it interesting that we are no longer favored against JMU, Marsha or Coastal in ESPN’s FPI projections.

No disrespect to you, but ESPN's FPI is literally one of the most garbage, nonsensical metrics in the history of statistics. It is never right, and it makes no sense. Vegas odds are infinitely more accurate at predicting outcomes.

Agree. This statement is 100% true. As a statistics geek, I mentioned it because I am curious what their metrics are to determine this.

[spacemonkey]

I saw an offensive set Saturday that had a wideout on each side and two running backs in the backfield and looked like two tight ends. That looked like a play with tons of possibilities.

Looked something like this:

---------------------------x---x---------------------------------------------
-----------------------------x-----------------------------------------------
x------------------------xxxxxx-----------------x--------------------------

If the backs can catch, this would be a ton of options for Joey at the line of scrimmage.

[AppStFan1]

I find it interesting that we are no longer favored against JMU, Marsha or Coastal in ESPN’s FPI projections.

No disrespect to you, but ESPN's FPI is literally one of the most garbage, nonsensical metrics in the history of statistics. It is never right, and it makes no sense. Vegas odds are infinitely more accurate at predicting outcomes.

100%. Their FPI is a complete waste of time to read.

[AppSt94]

I loved the 3 running backs in the backfield play that Haywood almost housed.

I missed that 3 back set? Where in the game was it? I’d like to go back and check it out?

Was it 3 backs or a 2 back set with the TE? I seem to recall a set with Hamlett at H-back.

[AppStFan1]

Fun Fact: Texas A&M was a 17.5 pt favorite over App in 2022. I think this game has a lot of similarities, except I think App is better now than they were in 2022. I would be more surprised at Clemson covering the spread than App winning outright. Clemson has a very good defensive line and... that's about it.

I think this game is going to be very similar to the A&M game. I do think the Clemson QB is better than the A&M QB and believe they will be a better team but I think we are better, like you said. This will be an interesting matchup. I would also be more surprised if Clemson covers the spread than if we win. I am expecting it to be within 10.

[BUTCH1991]

I loved the 3 running backs in the backfield play that Haywood almost housed.

I missed that 3 back set? Where in the game was it? I’d like to go back and check it out?

Was it 3 backs or a 2 back set with the TE? I seem to recall a set with Hamlett at H-back.

Go to the 6:10 left in the 1st quarter. Kanye starts in slot, comes into the backfield with Haywood & Castle. Haywood takes to about the 4 yard line

[311neers]

Boston College killed FSU last night with 2 plays.
1. TE clears the seam/safety and semi picks the LB guarding the RB. WR takes the corner deep opening a void in the flat. RB Wheel Route they hit about 3-4 times and dropped another.
2. Qb RPO- H back in motion behind line, fakes the handoff to RB and rolls hard to the right either hitting the motion H back in the flat or tucking it up field for 20 yards. We do this alot but it looked so good with their fast QB.

Loved both those plays and FSU could not stop it.

[AppSt94]

Boston College killed FSU last night with 2 plays.
1. TE clears the seam/safety and semi picks the LB guarding the RB. WR takes the corner deep opening a void in the flat. RB Wheel Route they hit about 3-4 times and dropped another.
2. Qb RPO- H back in motion behind line, fakes the handoff to RB and rolls hard to the right either hitting the motion H back in the flat or tucking it up field for 20 yards. We do this alot but it looked so good with their fast QB.

Loved both those plays and FSU could not stop it.

FSU couldn’t stop anything. I hear the faucets in the locker room are still running as well.

[Saint3333]

Am I the only one that would be ok if we never ran the WR screen with three WRs to one side when we can see the DBs are pressing up?

[yosef69]

I find it interesting that we are no longer favored against JMU, Marsha or Coastal in ESPN’s FPI projections.

No disrespect to you, but ESPN's FPI is literally one of the most garbage, nonsensical metrics in the history of statistics. It is never right, and it makes no sense. Vegas odds are infinitely more accurate at predicting outcomes.

100%. Their FPI is a complete waste of time to read.

SP+ is my personal favorite model and has the spread at +9.7. Feels wayyyyy more reasonable than 17. That’s a lot of points.

[KentHogan]

My thoughts:

First, we have to survive the first quarter, Clemson will try to make a statement early. Make no mistake, they will be desperate to win this game.

Then we will have to have a throw first mentality in my opinion. Going to be tough to run at Clemson without first having some success in the air.

Defensively, I think we need to sell out a bit against the run and trust our secondary to hold up. On third downs, send pressure! No 3 man rushes, make their QB beat us.

But what do I know!

[MrCraig]

I saw an offensive set Saturday that had a wideout on each side and two running backs in the backfield and looked like two tight ends. That looked like a play with tons of possibilities.

Looked something like this:

---------------------------x---x---------------------------------------------
-----------------------------x-----------------------------------------------
x------------------------xxxxxx-----------------x--------------------------

If the backs can catch, this would be a ton of options for Joey at the line of scrimmage.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this basically just the wishbone formation out of the pistol? I think it's awesome, and if that's how it is used it adds a lot of wrinkles to the offense.

[AppSt94]

My thoughts:

First, we have to survive the first quarter, Clemson will try to make a statement early. Make no mistake, they will be desperate to win this game.

Then we will have to have a throw first mentality in my opinion. Going to be tough to run at Clemson without first having some success in the air.

Defensively, I think we need to sell out a bit against the run and trust our secondary to hold up. On third downs, send pressure! No 3 man rushes, make their QB beat us.

But what do I know!

I agree with most of this. I think that Clemson will try and refocus on doing what they normally do. We can apply pressure by utilizing the clock to minimize their opportunities to get rolling offensively. I don’t expect us to be able to move the ball consistently, but if we can move it about 20 yards per possession and flip the field each time. Make them move the length of the field to score. If we do that enough, it will make their fans restless and create some panic.

[AppStFan1]

My thoughts:

First, we have to survive the first quarter, Clemson will try to make a statement early. Make no mistake, they will be desperate to win this game.

Then we will have to have a throw first mentality in my opinion. Going to be tough to run at Clemson without first having some success in the air.

Defensively, I think we need to sell out a bit against the run and trust our secondary to hold up. On third downs, send pressure! No 3 man rushes, make their QB beat us.

But what do I know!

I agree with most of this. I think that Clemson will try and refocus on doing what they normally do. We can apply pressure by utilizing the clock to minimize their opportunities to get rolling offensively. I don’t expect us to be able to move the ball consistently, but if we can move it about 20 yards per possession and flip the field each time. Make them move the length of the field to score. If we do that enough, it will make their fans restless and create some panic.

Agreed. Their QB is not good at all on deep throws so if we can hold Mafah in check and just disrupt their QB we could cause them a lot of trouble. It would be great for Joey to hit a couple deep passes early so Clemson can't stack the box. I feel like we could use the pass to open up the run early. It will be interesting to see our team strategy going in.

I listened to Swinney's press conference and he said good stuff about us but a lot of it was him rambling on to defend his QB and about their culture and how they view this opportunity to play at home. I have talked to several Clemson folks who think Dabo is full of it and they think we have a real shot to win. I just hope that their team overlooks us some. It would be huge for us to go in there and get a win.

[311neers]

Style points will absolutely matter and I hope Shawn realizes that. The reality is with this current system you hurt yourself by holding back and not trying to make a statement.

Just doing the math on the picks for playoff I would imagine 3 from SEC and Big Ten each, 2 from Big 12 and ACC each, and highest rated G5 champ. That is 11 spots. If a second G5 team is going to get in or you want to guarantee you are highest rated I think style points will matter big time.

SEC might get more than 3 in.
Georgia Bama Texas OU Ole Miss Mizzou and Tennessee all have a solid chance. ACC only getting 1 in at this rate. Edit: Forgot LSU. Sheesh, that’s 8 teams that can run with anyone. Might be time to go to 16 already! Haha

You hit the nail on the head, by design it's an SEC and B1G show, everyone is likely 1 and done

I am curious to see how teams beat up on each other. If the ACC or Big 12 runner-up is 10-3 and the 4th team from SEC is 9-3 or 8-4 I bet the ACC would get the 2nd team. There is no doubt that the SEC and Big Ten are both hoping to get 4 each. It will be easier to really debate this come early November once things have started to play out.

Just looking at last year and SEC had 6 in the top 12 (but 1 of those was Texas). They’ll beat up on each other for sure. I’m not sure what ACC teams are going to go 10-2 when Clemson FSU VT all have 1 loss already. Miami or Clemson feels like the ACC team to beat. Clemson schedule is charmin the rest of the way, after us, of course.

ACC highest ranked team is 15th right now- Miami.
SEC has 7 teams ranked higher. 7 in the top 13. They'll beat each other up, and are probably a little overinflated right now but the auto bye top 4 seed is a bad decision by the committee. It'll change but as we sit here today, that 3 seed would go to a 15th overall Miami...
And if we sneak in at 12th seed and Miami has a 3 seed with a bye for winning a hot dog water conference just doesn't sit right.

[AppSt94]

SEC might get more than 3 in.
Georgia Bama Texas OU Ole Miss Mizzou and Tennessee all have a solid chance. ACC only getting 1 in at this rate. Edit: Forgot LSU. Sheesh, that’s 8 teams that can run with anyone. Might be time to go to 16 already! Haha

You hit the nail on the head, by design it's an SEC and B1G show, everyone is likely 1 and done

I am curious to see how teams beat up on each other. If the ACC or Big 12 runner-up is 10-3 and the 4th team from SEC is 9-3 or 8-4 I bet the ACC would get the 2nd team. There is no doubt that the SEC and Big Ten are both hoping to get 4 each. It will be easier to really debate this come early November once things have started to play out.

Just looking at last year and SEC had 6 in the top 12 (but 1 of those was Texas). They’ll beat up on each other for sure. I’m not sure what ACC teams are going to go 10-2 when Clemson FSU VT all have 1 loss already. Miami or Clemson feels like the ACC team to beat. Clemson schedule is charmin the rest of the way, after us, of course.

ACC highest ranked team is 15th right now- Miami.
SEC has 7 teams ranked higher. 7 in the top 13. They'll beat each other up, and are probably a little overinflated right now but the auto bye top 4 seed is a bad decision by the committee. It'll change but as we sit here today, that 3 seed would go to a 15th overall Miami...
And if we sneak in at 12th seed and Miami has a 3 seed with a bye for winning a hot dog water conference just doesn't sit right.

Miami is a good football team. Keep in mind that the G5 champ isn’t guaranteed the 12th spot. The byes go to the top 4 ranked conference champs. It’s conceivable that if either Memphis, Boise or an App run the table then they could get ranked higher than a 2-3 loss ACC or Big 12 Champ. Not likely, but Heather Dinich did mention this scenario on one of the ESPN shows yesterday.

[Bigdaddyg1]

I always go back to why on earth do people get hung up on preseason rankings and for that matter the rankings after ONE game is played. The 12 teams are not picked today. We all know and need to accept that probably 4 SEC teams will get in. Lots and lots of stuff will happen over the next 3 months. There will almost certainly be some 8-4 team get in who will create a firestorm of controversy but the committee will justify them getting an at large spot. If we run the table and have wins over a 10-2 Clemson and a 10-2 Liberty and for that matter a 9-3 ECU we have a right to squawk about a 12 seed but let the season play out.

[AppSt94]

My thoughts:

First, we have to survive the first quarter, Clemson will try to make a statement early. Make no mistake, they will be desperate to win this game.

Then we will have to have a throw first mentality in my opinion. Going to be tough to run at Clemson without first having some success in the air.

Defensively, I think we need to sell out a bit against the run and trust our secondary to hold up. On third downs, send pressure! No 3 man rushes, make their QB beat us.

But what do I know!

I agree with most of this. I think that Clemson will try and refocus on doing what they normally do. We can apply pressure by utilizing the clock to minimize their opportunities to get rolling offensively. I don’t expect us to be able to move the ball consistently, but if we can move it about 20 yards per possession and flip the field each time. Make them move the length of the field to score. If we do that enough, it will make their fans restless and create some panic.

Agreed. Their QB is not good at all on deep throws so if we can hold Mafah in check and just disrupt their QB we could cause them a lot of trouble. It would be great for Joey to hit a couple deep passes early so Clemson can't stack the box. I feel like we could use the pass to open up the run early. It will be interesting to see our team strategy going in.

I listened to Swinney's press conference and he said good stuff about us but a lot of it was him rambling on to defend his QB and about their culture and how they view this opportunity to play at home. I have talked to several Clemson folks who think Dabo is full of it and they think we have a real shot to win. I just hope that their team overlooks us some. It would be huge for us to go in there and get a win.

I’m skeptical that our OL can give Joey enough time in a clean pocket to get a downfield throw off. I don’t put a lot of stock in fan opinions. They don’t know what Dabo knows about his team. Most of those opinions and attitudes are formed out of frustration from not seeing what they want to see. Dabo can afford to be Dabo because Clemson can’t afford to get rid of him. They also want him to dip in the portal and he won’t. NIL creates a lot of “rat poison” from those wanting their employees on the field. See Florida. The Bull Gators are some of the worst donors in the game.

[AppStFan1]

I always go back to why on earth do people get hung up on preseason rankings and for that matter the rankings after ONE game is played. The 12 teams are not picked today. We all know and need to accept that probably 4 SEC teams will get in. Lots and lots of stuff will happen over the next 3 months. There will almost certainly be some 8-4 team get in who will create a firestorm of controversy but the committee will justify them getting an at large spot. If we run the table and have wins over a 10-2 Clemson and a 10-2 Liberty and for that matter a 9-3 ECU we have a right to squawk about a 12 seed but let the season play out.

Rankings are really pointless until the CFP and comes out that ranking is all that really matters. It is great to be listed and we should want to be doing well enough that we are at least receiving votes for marketing but as you said it is so early now. There will be so much happen over the next 2-3 months that will make some of the debates people had over the summer and now look really dumb to even consider. We had people who had FSU as a potential top 8 seed and now they aren't even receiving votes. A lot more crazy will happen between now and late November.

[moonshine]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this basically just the wishbone formation out of the pistol? I think it's awesome, and if that's how it is used it adds a lot of wrinkles to the offense.

This formation example is more of a pro set (split back) than a wishbone. Based on Monkey's initial thought with 2 WR, 2 RB and 2 TE, the offense would have only had 4 OL. The wishbone formation has a FB lined up behind the QB with 2 HB offset behind the FB. Not to be confused with the flexbone which has a FB lined up behind the QB and 2 slot backs lined up in the backfield just outside each T.

Hopefully the D can stay disciplined and fill their gaps to try and control the Clemson run game. The little bit of the UGA game that I did see, it appeared they were trying to get the ball out of Klubnik's hands quickly to nullify the Dawg's pass rush who ended up with 2 sacks and 6 TFLs. Hopefully they won't be as worried about App's pass rush and will try to run some longer developing routes that will give our D a chance to apply pressure and move CK off his spot. The secondary needs to be cognizant of where #0 Williams is on the field. He had 33% of the receptions, 54% of the receiving yards and the only play the Tigers had over 20 yards. Their TE, #9 Briningstool, is a big target who could pose matchup problems, especially in the redzone. The key is keeping Mafah in check and then forcing CK to make uncomfortable throws.