An Interesting Take on 2020
Posted: Sat Feb 08, 2020 7:30 pm
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I think this is a good take. I think we have plenty of experienced talent to fill in for those departures (though I have some concern about the NT spot), but it’s not fair to expect there to be no drop off from guys like ADG and Fehr right away. OTOH we return all our corners and DEs plus Chris Willis, so that helps.hapapp wrote: ↑Sun Feb 09, 2020 6:09 amThey are not necessarily predictive but they do speak of team's level of experience which is not worthless. However, while a team can be losing a number of starters it doesn't speak of the depth at those positions. The way we rotate on D, hopefully, mitigates the loss of so many starters. Though, it may be unrealistic to think initially we can be as strong as this year.
Agree with you guys. That chart is interesting and it matches what you expect that CCU should get better. Chadwell is a good coach so they should be a bowl team and I would not be shocked if they finish in 2nd or 3rd place in the division. I'm with you that early on the defense may start slow but I expect them to be dominant by week 5. Just like we said last year when new coaches came in. We have a lot of talent so the expectation is a 2020 SBC Championship. My worry is 2021 when we have a new QB and replace a ton of production on offense.AppFan11 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:23 amActually that’s what Bill Connolly has done for years, to make stats that are more predictive than the traditional stats. He fully acknowledges that some are better than others. Certainly Phil Steele uses returning production numbers as well. I agree with Hap and East that in our unique situation on defense where we are constantly rotating players so that younger players are getting regular snaps, that Bill’s stats will underestimate our performance. As we know, predictive models generalize predictions by whatever formula is being used and does not take into account specific/unique situations. All that being said, I would expect that 2020 defense to be good overall but probably start slow and get better and better every game.
Exactly. There are some spots where I think you have to assume some dropoff, at least in the short run. But there are also a couple places (I won’t name names) where I think the new starter could be an upgrade.AtlAppMan wrote: ↑Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:59 pmThe idea and some value for returning productivity is interesting. However is 70% returning from a13-1 team better or worse than 90% from a 5-7 team? And what is the relative new value of the players that will fill in the lost production? Are you replacing it with less, equal or better talent? Look at Zac replacing Lamb two years ago, we got better day one. One can’t automatically assume replacing a starter is net negative productivity.
Just some points to ponder.
I wonder if it takes into account the number of folks who have left the Coastal program. I'm not clued in enough to know if their losses were backups or starters. But, I believe they had a significant number in the portal.AppStFan1 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:16 pmAgree with you guys. That chart is interesting and it matches what you expect that CCU should get better. Chadwell is a good coach so they should be a bowl team and I would not be shocked if they finish in 2nd or 3rd place in the division. I'm with you that early on the defense may start slow but I expect them to be dominant by week 5. Just like we said last year when new coaches came in. We have a lot of talent so the expectation is a 2020 SBC Championship. My worry is 2021 when we have a new QB and replace a ton of production on offense.AppFan11 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:23 amActually that’s what Bill Connolly has done for years, to make stats that are more predictive than the traditional stats. He fully acknowledges that some are better than others. Certainly Phil Steele uses returning production numbers as well. I agree with Hap and East that in our unique situation on defense where we are constantly rotating players so that younger players are getting regular snaps, that Bill’s stats will underestimate our performance. As we know, predictive models generalize predictions by whatever formula is being used and does not take into account specific/unique situations. All that being said, I would expect that 2020 defense to be good overall but probably start slow and get better and better every game.
Of course, if that 30% was the key to your success it could be significant. While those were very experienced, key players on D, we did have some excellent athletes behind them.AtlAppMan wrote: ↑Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:59 pmThe idea and some value for returning productivity is interesting. However is 70% returning from a13-1 team better or worse than 90% from a 5-7 team? And what is the relative new value of the players that will fill in the lost production? Are you replacing it with less, equal or better talent? Look at Zac replacing Lamb two years ago, we got better day one. One can’t automatically assume replacing a starter is net negative productivity.
Just some points to ponder.
Just the raw numbers do miss a lot of the intricate details. But it's not too bad as a quick and dirty method to see what to expect from a team. All relative of course though. A 5 win team returning 90% likely isn't better than a 12+ win team returning 70%. But that 5 win team, at least on paper with this quick and dirty method, is less likely to get worse since they're returning most of the team. Of course that could just mean the 5 win team improves to 6 wins and the 12+ win team "regresses" to 11 wins.Rekdiver wrote: ↑Sun Feb 09, 2020 5:26 pmOk I read all the comments and then relooked at the chart. I’m sorry but There are just too many variables to consider to make this any type of predictor. For instance you lose DE but you whole line returns along with Peoples and other. Your best receiver is back too missing most of the season. Raw numbers mean nothing like this. Returning production is relative and no predictor of improvement or failure.
Good question. I have not looked that closely at it. I just remember they seemed to not have many seniors and I feel like Jamey is a good coach who would have them as a contender in the next year or two.hapapp wrote: ↑Sun Feb 09, 2020 3:24 pmI wonder if it takes into account the number of folks who have left the Coastal program. I'm not clued in enough to know if their losses were backups or starters. But, I believe they had a significant number in the portal.AppStFan1 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 09, 2020 12:16 pmAgree with you guys. That chart is interesting and it matches what you expect that CCU should get better. Chadwell is a good coach so they should be a bowl team and I would not be shocked if they finish in 2nd or 3rd place in the division. I'm with you that early on the defense may start slow but I expect them to be dominant by week 5. Just like we said last year when new coaches came in. We have a lot of talent so the expectation is a 2020 SBC Championship. My worry is 2021 when we have a new QB and replace a ton of production on offense.AppFan11 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:23 amActually that’s what Bill Connolly has done for years, to make stats that are more predictive than the traditional stats. He fully acknowledges that some are better than others. Certainly Phil Steele uses returning production numbers as well. I agree with Hap and East that in our unique situation on defense where we are constantly rotating players so that younger players are getting regular snaps, that Bill’s stats will underestimate our performance. As we know, predictive models generalize predictions by whatever formula is being used and does not take into account specific/unique situations. All that being said, I would expect that 2020 defense to be good overall but probably start slow and get better and better every game.