• Impact of game this Saturday

Posted: **Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:24 pm**

Disclaimer- purely hypothetical what if not to be taken too seriously!!

Let’s say that a “potential “ national championship contender (Penn State) loses to App this Saturday but shakes off the loss and goes on to run the table and even win the Big 10 Championship. Are they still in the discussion for the boys playoff? And is a loss to App considered a huge upset (it’s a given that Michigan will be part of the discussion)?

Flip side if App wins and goes on to win all but one game but wins the SB Championship are we in the discussion for the NY day bowl game- assuming no G5 goes unbeaten?

I am hoping that an App win is not celebrated forever but considered a nice win by a strong mid major program. Is a loss to App crushing for PSU if they go on to a 10 or 11 win season?

Posted: **Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:14 pm**

A loss to App would likely kill any chance Penn State has at the playoffs. Of course, that depends on how App does afterwards, AND how the other power programs do. If Georgia, Bama, Florida State, Clemson (and other contenders) all have a loss, they might sneak in.

The "slight" of the B1G last year might actually play in their favor.

Posted: **Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:18 pm**

bigdaddyg wrote: ↑
Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:24 pm
Disclaimer- purely hypothetical what if not to be taken too seriously!!

Let’s say that a “potential “ national championship contender (Penn State) loses to App this Saturday but shakes off the loss and goes on to run the table and even win the Big 10 Championship. Are they still in the discussion for the boys playoff? Yes, 11-1 with wins over multiple ranked teams (Mich St, Ohio St, Michigan, Wisconsin).

And is a loss to App considered a huge upset (it’s a given that Michigan will be part of the discussion)? Yes, not an all-time great upset as when we were FCS, but it's still a huge upset. A new FBS team in one of the lowest ranked G5 conferences upsetting a playoff hopeful with a Heisman candidate QB.

Flip side if App wins and goes on to win all but one game but wins the SB Championship are we in the discussion for the NY day bowl game- assuming no G5 goes unbeaten? We need every AAC & MTW team to have at least 1 loss to be considered for a NYD bowl. If we lose any game, our SoS keeps us on the outside looking in. The AAC and a few MTW teams (Boise St, SDSU) have enough national respect that any 1-2 loss team would trump our Apps with 1 loss.

I am hoping that an App win is not celebrated forever but considered a nice win by a strong mid major program. Is a loss to App crushing for PSU if they go on to a 10 or 11 win season? I wouldn't say so. In the scenario above, their loss to us would be to a top 25-30 one loss team.

Posted: **Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:29 pm**

97APP wrote: ↑
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:18 pm

bigdaddyg wrote: ↑
Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:24 pm
Disclaimer- purely hypothetical what if not to be taken too seriously!!

Let’s say that a “potential “ national championship contender (Penn State) loses to App this Saturday but shakes off the loss and goes on to run the table and even win the Big 10 Championship. Are they still in the discussion for the boys playoff? Yes, 11-1 with wins over multiple ranked teams (Mich St, Ohio St, Michigan, Wisconsin).

And is a loss to App considered a huge upset (it’s a given that Michigan will be part of the discussion)? Yes, not an all-time great upset as when we were FCS, but it's still a huge upset. A new FBS team in one of the lowest ranked G5 conferences upsetting a playoff hopeful with a Heisman candidate QB.

I tend to agree with this take. Obviously many will immediately say that PSU was overrated to begin with. The rest of the scenario would have to play out to substantiate our win- they go on and run the table and we go unbeaten or have one loss.

Flip side if App wins and goes on to win all but one game but wins the SB Championship are we in the discussion for the NY day bowl game- assuming no G5 goes unbeaten? We need every AAC & MTW team to have at least 1 loss to be considered for a NYD bowl. If we lose any game, our SoS keeps us on the outside looking in. The AAC and a few MTW teams (Boise St, SDSU) have enough national respect that any 1-2 loss team would trump our Apps with 1 loss.

Agree, can’t slip up and drop a conference game and most likely we have to go unbeaten and get help.

I am hoping that an App win is not celebrated forever but considered a nice win by a strong mid major program. Is a loss to App crushing for PSU if they go on to a 10 or 11 win season? I wouldn't say so. In the scenario above, their loss to us would be to a top 25-30 one loss team.

Agree

Posted: **Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:32 pm**

Penn State finishing 12-1 with a Big Ten Championship gets in to the playoff, even if they have a loss to App.

Posted: **Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:41 pm**

They got Michigan State, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin and Ohio State on the schedule. Run that table and they're in. And with all but Michigan at home, they could do it.

Posted: **Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:59 pm**

On a side note, looks like a huge chance for rain and maybe thunderstorms this Saturday in Happy Valley. Whom, if anyone; does that favor?

Posted: **Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:06 pm**

ASU3432Mi wrote: ↑
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:59 pm
On a side note, looks like a huge chance for rain and maybe thunderstorms this Saturday in Happy Valley. Whom, if anyone; does that favor?

I would imagine with their run defense being a big question, bad weather could favor us more; assuming of course our OL makes the holes open. Bad weather could force both teams on the ground more, hopefully our guys on both sides of the ball would be able to keep up with that grind.

Posted: **Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:15 pm**

Rain I can take and would hopefully be an equalizer. Thunderstorms would create a lot of fan disruption if the stadium had to be evacuated.

Posted: **Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:19 pm**

ASU3432Mi wrote: ↑
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:59 pm
On a side note, looks like a huge chance for rain and maybe thunderstorms this Saturday in Happy Valley. Whom, if anyone; does that favor?

I like what we did in the rain a few years ago at ODU!

Posted: **Tue Aug 28, 2018 2:41 pm**

To the original question, I think a 1 loss PSU is at least in the conversation for the Playoff, unless there are multiple undefeated teams among Clemson, UGa, Alabama, Washington, even an undefeated Oklahoma, or Miami could make an App State loss a blow to Penn State's play off hopes.

I think the gravity of a possible loss to App State largely depends on how PSU fairs the remainder of the season. The Nittany Lions run the table, or take the B1G with a couple wins over Michigan, Mich. State, Wisconsin or Ohio State and the upset level goes up. PSU goes the way of Tennessee and everyone just says they were overrated in the pre-season polls.

I don't think a 1 loss App State makes the NY6 bowl, even if the 1 loss is to Penn State, and certainly not if the 1 loss is to anyone else on the schedule. Given the other G5 teams with history and media darling status and the whole of the AAC pushing their idiotic "P6" agenda, App State needs a 12-0 run to force the hand of the NY6 selection committees.

As for rain and thunder? Running is App's strength and Penn State's weakness. On the other side App State's front 7 is very much in question even without Barkley, Penn State will be the toughest team to stop the Mountaineers face all season. Rainy conditions could see 400+ yards rushing for both teams.

Posted: **Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:02 pm**

ASU3432Mi wrote: ↑
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:59 pm
On a side note, looks like a huge chance for rain and maybe thunderstorms this Saturday in Happy Valley. Whom, if anyone; does that favor?

Not sure where 40% is a huge chance for rain/ thunderstorm. Looks like a normal forecast anywhere on the east coast during the summer.

Posted: **Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:15 pm**

If we are praying for rain to hack a chance we should not be scheduling big boys

Posted: **Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:20 pm**

Have a chance not hack. Darn small keyboard

Posted: **Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:54 pm**

We win and Penn State runs table odds are they make playoff. We win and go 13-0 no reason we would not be in NY6. In my opinion a long shot but it can happen. We are undefeated as of right now.

Posted: **Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:55 pm**

We go 12-1 it is Camellia or Dollar General, maybe New Orleans.

Posted: **Tue Aug 28, 2018 6:52 pm**

ESPN posted a bowl prediction lost today. They had us in NO.

Posted: **Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:50 am**

In my honest opinion we should be only scheduling teams like Clemson, Georgia and Penn State 3 out of every ten years. I would much rather play teams like Wake, UNC, South Carolina, etc for the most part.

Barring a miracle I will not learn much about our team this weekend.

Posted: **Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:40 pm**

Wanted to revisit this thread. Now let’s say we BOTH run the table. Penn St makes the playoff obviously. If we do our part and go 12-1 with a conference championship and our only loss is overtime to an undefeated playoff team should we get the NY6 game?

Posted: **Sun Sep 02, 2018 7:55 pm**

Depends on what everyone else does. It’s possible but not probable. Sun Belt only had 3 teams start out top 100.

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