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The incredible shrinking future of college

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The incredible shrinking future of college

Unread post by asu66 » Tue May 02, 2023 4:27 pm

The incredible shrinking future of college

The population of college-age Americans is about to crash. It will change higher education forever.

https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23428 ... tion-crash

Storm clouds on the horizon!
If it happens to the Apps, it happens to me!

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Re: The incredible shrinking future of college

Unread post by rbarthle17 » Wed May 10, 2023 11:29 am

I'm okay with this. We could do with a major shrinkage of colleges, and people going to college.

People of my generation were raised that college is the place you must go, it was plans A-Z for life. To be honest, too many people have gone to college that either shouldn't have (poor academics) or didn't need to (their livelihoods didn't require it), and the subsequent boom in college tuitions have led to the financial crisis an entire generation of younger adults are going to have to deal with for decades.

Younger millennials, and the oldest of Gen Z, see the writing on the wall and are actively saying "why should we bring children into this world?" while also actively rethinking their plans for the future, and I don't blame them one bit. I have 4 Gen Z kids, and three of them have stated a preference for a childless life in their future. Maybe that will change as they get older, bit it's certainly not an anomaly.

As for going on to college, when I graduated high school, it was tracked that over 80% went on to college from my class. The administration from my school proudly advertised that fact back then. To go into the trades was considered being a failure. These last 30 years have done a lot in waking people up that that is just a terrible take to have had. Where I live now, I cannot find statistics for it but anecdotally I would bet that it's closer to a 50/50 split between colleges and the trades here. And that's a good thing.

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Re: The incredible shrinking future of college

Unread post by ASUFan4863 » Wed May 10, 2023 11:43 am

rbarthle17 wrote:
Wed May 10, 2023 11:29 am
I'm okay with this. We could do with a major shrinkage of colleges, and people going to college.

People of my generation were raised that college is the place you must go, it was plans A-Z for life. To be honest, too many people have gone to college that either shouldn't have (poor academics) or didn't need to (their livelihoods didn't require it), and the subsequent boom in college tuitions have led to the financial crisis an entire generation of younger adults are going to have to deal with for decades.

Younger millennials, and the oldest of Gen Z, see the writing on the wall and are actively saying "why should we bring children into this world?" while also actively rethinking their plans for the future, and I don't blame them one bit. I have 4 Gen Z kids, and three of them have stated a preference for a childless life in their future. Maybe that will change as they get older, bit it's certainly not an anomaly.

As for going on to college, when I graduated high school, it was tracked that over 80% went on to college from my class. The administration from my school proudly advertised that fact back then. To go into the trades was considered being a failure. These last 30 years have done a lot in waking people up that that is just a terrible take to have had. Where I live now, I cannot find statistics for it but anecdotally I would bet that it's closer to a 50/50 split between colleges and the trades here. And that's a good thing.
Many good points here. CTE (career technical education) has become much more popular in high schools by offering certifications and education for trades instead of the university route. A lot of people go to college because they don’t know what else to do. CTE gives them an avenue to find an alternative without wasting time and money.

I wonder if this decline will cause universities to reduce the amount of useless degree offerings. More students go to safer degrees during a recessionary period so I could see some art history programs getting the axe.

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Re: The incredible shrinking future of college

Unread post by appst89 » Wed May 10, 2023 11:59 am

Steering kids away from trades was a horrible mistake that I hope is being rectified in schools now. Some kids just weren't meant for college, and there is nothing wrong with that. Society is always going to need mechanics, carpenters, electricians, plumbers, etc. There is a good living to made if one is a good tradesman.

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Re: The incredible shrinking future of college

Unread post by t4pizza » Wed May 10, 2023 12:44 pm

I can't echo the above sentiments about trades enough. I have 4 kids, my youngest is 22 and graduated from UF last year. He worked this year and is starting law school in the fall so he will be 26 before he actually starts to earn anything in his career choice. Meanwhile my nephew is 23 ( a year almost to the day older than my son), after graduating from high school he went to trade school for air conditioning. He has been working in the field for 2 years now and is studying for his state license which would enable him to open his own shop. He is 23 and has already purchased a house (in central Florida across the river from the beach) and by the time my son starts his career, his cousin will probably own his own ac company and make significant money. Now I am not saying that my son should have followed the same path but just pointing out how valuable learning a trade can be and what a significant head start a tradesman can have over even a lawyer. My nephew had a plan (because his family made sure he knew all the options after high school), and that plan is working out well for him.

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Re: The incredible shrinking future of college

Unread post by appdaze » Wed May 10, 2023 3:14 pm

Lifetime earnings are a hard thing for people to focus on because everyone only talks a out hourly/monthly/yearly wages. If you take community college classes while in high school and get certifications you can then take one year at said community college to finish a program and at 19 can make 40k or more in things like furniture where they are hiring right out of the gate as well as welders etc.. Compare this to a person who goes to college for four years and has some level of student debt. The trade worker has 120k by the time the college bound graduates and starts out 20k+ in the hole from debt. The college bound would need to get a good 60k a year job to be able to make up that ground in 10 years, but if they start like many college grads in the 40-50 range it could take close to 20 years to break even on career earnings if all salaries remained the same. The college bound is hoping their degree gets them promotions that may or may not happen for career advancement. The tradesmen is hoping for pay raises for longevity and quality labor possibly in the hopes of starting their own business which could bring in a lot more. Both have risks but lifetime earnings is something that should be talked about more.

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Re: The incredible shrinking future of college

Unread post by BambooRdApp » Wed May 10, 2023 3:15 pm

Agree on above about trade or becoming a lawyer, doctor, CPA ... whatever white collar professional career At the end of the day, people should try to find their passion. If you are truly passionate about the career you are in, you will, often more times than not, be successful (however one defines success)...With that said, we are becoming a society of doing less outside of our job that requires actual work.....as an example...if you live in a subdivision in a decent size city, it seems the outlier is the guy/girl that owns the home is the actually cutting the grass...back.in the day, the homeowner cut the grass.....the compensation for trades type jobs have been growing and will continue to grow...basic supply and demand...
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Re: The incredible shrinking future of college

Unread post by Oldlknapp » Wed May 10, 2023 9:06 pm

One of the more financially well off people I know has a HVAC business. He has been in the business for decades. He’s been through the school of hard knocks.

I think back to my HS days and a few of the students went to the “Industrial School” and the prominent course of study was HVAC. Who knew?

Of course the successful ones worked very hard and at some point had to become “entrepreneurs.

I’ve noticed that some former APP athletes have become successful entrepreneurs. I would like to think that the hard work and dedication to their athletic endeavor guided them to be successful entrepreneurs.

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Re: The incredible shrinking future of college

Unread post by App74 » Thu May 11, 2023 6:53 am

On a recent DEN-RDU flight, my wife and I sat next to a lady (mid-40's) who lives in Raleigh but grew up in Australia. She said, in her home country, a high school student and parents make a choice upon completion of the tenth grade: 1. Continue with high school engaging in a college bound, academic curriculum...OR... 2. Leave high school (not labeled as a dropout) to enter the work force or attend a trade school.

She opted to leave high school upon finishing the tenth grade and started working at a medical office. She eventually became the office manager. She took the path best for her and remained friends with her high school peers. I like having options.

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Re: The incredible shrinking future of college

Unread post by ASU3432Mi » Thu May 11, 2023 7:54 am

We need more plumbers and carpenters, less lawyers.

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Re: The incredible shrinking future of college

Unread post by bigdaddyg » Thu May 11, 2023 8:14 am

Those earnings numbers are very telling and interesting. I've always believed that a majority of college in general is a waste and a racket. For years the mantra has been to make a person "well rounded ". That's a load of BS. Assuming that an 18 year old graduates high school and is proficient at reading, writing and basic math why waste a majority of the next 4 years (minimum) with classes like Geology and softball? I was a business major and actually had to still take another science. I took "rocks for jocks" as we called it because I had hoped it would be an easy science credit. Complete waste of time and money. Looking back half of the classes I took were ridiculous. While bowling was somewhat fun what was the point? Regular college curriculums need to be more like trade or 2 year schools. Require the classes needed for the actual degree. We have a son at App and one at NC State. One is taking a summer class to the tune of $1,200. Unbelievable.

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Re: The incredible shrinking future of college

Unread post by Stonewall » Thu May 11, 2023 3:17 pm

bigdaddyg wrote:
Thu May 11, 2023 8:14 am
Those earnings numbers are very telling and interesting. I've always believed that a majority of college in general is a waste and a racket. For years the mantra has been to make a person "well rounded ". That's a load of BS. Assuming that an 18 year old graduates high school and is proficient at reading, writing and basic math why waste a majority of the next 4 years (minimum) with classes like Geology and softball? I was a business major and actually had to still take another science. I took "rocks for jocks" as we called it because I had hoped it would be an easy science credit. Complete waste of time and money. Looking back half of the classes I took were ridiculous. While bowling was somewhat fun what was the point? Regular college curriculums need to be more like trade or 2 year schools. Require the classes needed for the actual degree. We have a son at App and one at NC State. One is taking a summer class to the tune of $1,200. Unbelievable.
Good assessment.

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Re: The incredible shrinking future of college

Unread post by Appst86 » Thu May 11, 2023 4:00 pm

Stonewall wrote:
Thu May 11, 2023 3:17 pm
bigdaddyg wrote:
Thu May 11, 2023 8:14 am
Those earnings numbers are very telling and interesting. I've always believed that a majority of college in general is a waste and a racket. For years the mantra has been to make a person "well rounded ". That's a load of BS. Assuming that an 18 year old graduates high school and is proficient at reading, writing and basic math why waste a majority of the next 4 years (minimum) with classes like Geology and softball? I was a business major and actually had to still take another science. I took "rocks for jocks" as we called it because I had hoped it would be an easy science credit. Complete waste of time and money. Looking back half of the classes I took were ridiculous. While bowling was somewhat fun what was the point? Regular college curriculums need to be more like trade or 2 year schools. Require the classes needed for the actual degree. We have a son at App and one at NC State. One is taking a summer class to the tune of $1,200. Unbelievable.
Good assessment.
This famous theologian was on to something.


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Re: The incredible shrinking future of college

Unread post by bigdaddyg » Sat May 13, 2023 7:00 am

It's always nice to see the posts showing the athletes (football today) who graduated and I wish them well and hope they are successful in their lives but at the same time you have to wonder what some will do with particular degrees. Our two youngest are now juniors and are starting to focus on their own path. We advise them both to focus on what will hopefully afford them opportunities for actual careers. The number of college graduates who are tending bar or waiting tables in their mid to late twenties is probably staggering.

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Re: The incredible shrinking future of college

Unread post by bigdaddyg » Wed May 17, 2023 6:09 am

I'm sure that these statistics are out there but I'd be curious to see a breakdown (say over the last 20 years) of people currently around 42 (putting the average 20 years out of college) who either got a job with their chosen degree or otherwise went a different path. I'd also like to see the number who attended but never graduated to include athletes. I'd also like to see a breakdown of people in the same age group who attended a two year college or trade school and to see their average annual salary. I'm willing to bet that the number who never finished or who paid for a BS (not bachelor of science) degree and ended up working something totally different are numerous. I'd also be willing to bet that the number of 2 year and trade related folks are doing pretty well.

I'd also love to see how many former student athletes actually graduated and were able to use their degrees. Honestly this one is probably geared toward football and basketball. We all know that for the most part the Olympic sport students tend to be more academically oriented. I could be wrong but I'd bet that the non-revenue type Olympic sports tend to include students who graduate on time with actual useful degrees.

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Re: The incredible shrinking future of college

Unread post by brocktune90 » Wed May 17, 2023 1:02 pm

Counter point:

There are no "useless" or "BS" degrees. The goal of college is not solely to create employees who can serve employers in the way the employers want. The goals for each degree can be found on the App State learning outcomes page: https://irap.appstate.edu/institutional ... g-outcomes. Most all schools are required to have stated learning outcomes and to assess whether students are learning the stated outcomes.

The trades are necessary and can be a great way to make a living. I imagine an HVAC person in Las Vegas is pretty popular. I always thought escalator repair looked cool.

Let's not disparage those that choose a different path to happiness than the one we might have chosen for them. Earnings do not equal happiness.

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Re: The incredible shrinking future of college

Unread post by spacemonkey » Wed May 17, 2023 3:13 pm

I was a management major. I have not managed one person in my life so far. I would not trade my Appalachian education for anything. I learned a lot and should have learned more if I would have taken it more serious. You learn more than just your major.

I believe someone that wants to be a plumber or electrician will be more successful with an App business degree than without. Plumbing would be the easy part of owning a plumbing business.

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Re: The incredible shrinking future of college

Unread post by mike87 » Wed May 17, 2023 4:02 pm

A college degree tells an employer that you can apply yourself to a 4-year (+/-) project and successfully complete it. If the degree is in your chosen field that's just a bonus. with exceptions of course.

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Re: The incredible shrinking future of college

Unread post by AppSt94 » Thu May 18, 2023 6:32 am


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Re: The incredible shrinking future of college

Unread post by AppfaninCAALand » Thu May 18, 2023 10:48 pm

mike87 wrote:
Wed May 17, 2023 4:02 pm
A college degree tells an employer that you can apply yourself to a 4-year (+/-) project and successfully complete it. If the degree is in your chosen field that's just a bonus. with exceptions of course.
I always say a college degree tells an employer you can show up and turn in a product that satisfies the required standards of whoever is grading your product.

That all being said, the problem of declining college age population referenced in the OP article is a much bigger issue than just college enrollment. Global declining birth rates will effect every aspect of human society, and contrary to what Ehrlich and Thanos believed, most of those effects will be negative. But this isn't really the forum for that discussion so I will see myself out.

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