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No sunbelt in CFP

Discussion about anything related to the Sun Belt Conference
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Re: No sunbelt in CFP

Unread post by Rekdiver » Wed Nov 03, 2021 8:28 am

If Cincy wins out...the entire G5 world should erupt......

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Re: No sunbelt in CFP

Unread post by appstate5 » Wed Nov 03, 2021 8:43 am

Georgia will beat Alabama and knock them out of the top 4. Ohio State will beat Michigan State and get in the top 4. Wake Forest will lose a game and not make the top 4. Good chance Oregon will find a way to lose another game. Don't give up on Cincy just yet, I believe they will make the final four but their prize may be getting dawged by Georgia.

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Re: No sunbelt in CFP

Unread post by bigdaddyg » Wed Nov 03, 2021 8:46 am

All of us App people are clearly fans of a school in the G5 world and I’m sure that 100% of us think that the system sucks and also firmly believe that it’s rigged to an extent. If some of us discuss reality versus what should be that doesn’t mean we aren’t in the G5 camp and opinions on how things generally work don’t carry any weight. If Cincinnati runs the table and the committee puts, say 3 one loss P5’s in the playoff instead of them then yes there should be an uproar. If Georgia goes 12-0 and loses to Alabama in the CCG both of them will be in. An unbeaten OU is in. The only real chance Cincinnati has is for Michigan State to beat OSU, lose to PSU and then lose the Big10 CG. No way any 2 loss Big10 gets in. It then comes down to Cincinnati versus Wake or possibly Oregon. IMO the Cincinnati resume will be stronger than Wake if both go undefeated. Of course Wake still has 3 tough games (basically the toughest stretch) so they are not even close to a lock. Cincinnati needs chaos while probably 4 P5’s control their destiny.

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Re: No sunbelt in CFP

Unread post by Yosef84 » Wed Nov 03, 2021 8:55 am

First of all, let me state that I would love to see Cincy in the playoffs! I believe they are a legit team and assuming they win out, I think they deserve a shot. That said, I can't say that they have "proven" that they are one of the best 4 teams in the country. If that's what we're trying to prove, it's a hard argument to make....subjective at best. This subjectivity is the precise reason that a 4 team playoff just isn't sufficient. Frankly, if Georgia loses to Bama in a close game and both teams finish 12-1, I think both teams deserve to go. If Georgia beats Bama, then Bama needs to play in their consolation bowl and stay out of the playoffs. Cincy fans need to pull for Georgia to man-handle Bama so that the SEC doesn't get two teams. It's hard to evaluate programs across dissimilar schedules, but I have trouble arguing that Cincy's schedule justifies their inclusion over a Big 10 or SEC team with 1 loss. It can be justified either way, so I would say excluding an undefeated Cincy would be disappointing but not necessarily unjustified (depending on how the rest of the season develops of course).

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Re: No sunbelt in CFP

Unread post by AppSt94 » Wed Nov 03, 2021 9:39 am

I don’t get the uproar over no Sun Belt teams represented. None of them have the resumes to deserve consideration.

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Re: No sunbelt in CFP

Unread post by ASUPATCH » Wed Nov 03, 2021 10:01 am

Cincy has looked really average the last 2 weeks. I watched the entire Navy game and most of Tulane. They struggled mightily against two bottom feeder D1 programs. Navy, 1-6 at the time, and their 1927 offense outgained the Bearcats in total years. Lets face the facts. You cant just win in the G5 and hope to get a playoff spot, especially with only 4 teams. You have to dominate at your level for back to back years to convince folks you belong. As of late, they have not at all looked the part.
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Re: No sunbelt in CFP

Unread post by bigdaddyg » Wed Nov 03, 2021 10:05 am

Where does Cincinnati currently rank based on SOS? Surely there is some reliable computer ranking out there that eliminates both the eye test and subjectivity. The title of the thread is odd unless we are bent out of shape not having a Belt team at 25th in the first ranking. Anybody recall who finished 12th in the final CFP ranking last year? Pointless. Being that this entire process is based more on getting the top 4 big boys in the playoff does the committee really put hours into deciding teams 11-25?

I’ve mentioned before that I think the best thing that a bowl committee could do is to continue this ranking, institute better criteria and when the dust settles put teams together for bowls based on rank. Let the top 4 (or however many playoff teams they ultimately decide on) move to that part then let 5 play 6, 6 play 7 and so on. Predetermine the ranking of the bowls. For that matter let each bowl bid for rank. Assuming that the Rose and Orange for example are used for the semifinal maybe the Fiesta hosts 5&6, Sugar 7&8, etc. Then if App finishes 19th we play number 20 and it’s in a fairly highly rated bowl. Everybody wins.

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Re: No sunbelt in CFP

Unread post by AppOrange » Wed Nov 03, 2021 10:44 am

Not saying I am for it or against it, but after watching last night, style points absolutely matter to voters, and not just the CFP voters, all voters.

If Cincy crushes their last two opponents, they are higher then 6 without a doubt.

With that said, some teams will always get the benefit of the doubt (currently looking at you Oklahoma and Ohio State).
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Re: No sunbelt in CFP

Unread post by AppSt94 » Wed Nov 03, 2021 10:59 am

If style point matter, then I’m afraid App will always be playing the long game from behind. We aren’t going to be the team that puts our cleat on the neck for 60 minutes.

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Re: No sunbelt in CFP

Unread post by Yosef84 » Wed Nov 03, 2021 11:10 am

bigdaddyg wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 10:05 am
Where does Cincinnati currently rank based on SOS? Surely there is some reliable computer ranking out there that eliminates both the eye test and subjectivity. The title of the thread is odd unless we are bent out of shape not having a Belt team at 25th in the first ranking. Anybody recall who finished 12th in the final CFP ranking last year? Pointless. Being that this entire process is based more on getting the top 4 big boys in the playoff does the committee really put hours into deciding teams 11-25?

I’ve mentioned before that I think the best thing that a bowl committee could do is to continue this ranking, institute better criteria and when the dust settles put teams together for bowls based on rank. Let the top 4 (or however many playoff teams they ultimately decide on) move to that part then let 5 play 6, 6 play 7 and so on. Predetermine the ranking of the bowls. For that matter let each bowl bid for rank. Assuming that the Rose and Orange for example are used for the semifinal maybe the Fiesta hosts 5&6, Sugar 7&8, etc. Then if App finishes 19th we play number 20 and it’s in a fairly highly rated bowl. Everybody wins.
Subjectivity can be reduced somewhat but not eliminated. Even the models accounting for SOS include some subjective / biased evaluations to evaluate how strong the schedule is.

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Re: No sunbelt in CFP

Unread post by BambooRdApp » Wed Nov 03, 2021 11:19 am

IMO, the only way a G5 team gets into 4 team playoff will be they go undefeated in a year they just happened to schedule the number 1 team from SEC and Big 10. Beat both..then the 3rd game is a winning record from a P5 school. That 3 legit P5 opponents to offset perceived mediocre G5 schedules played rest of year. The voters perceive G5 schedules mediocre wins..

Or the alternative mentioned above, Michigan St. winning key games and losing key games. Wake winning enough to make ACC champ game but losing a couple....etc. with this scenario, it is a bit of a stretch as the voters see the G5 as second class conferences

...which is why my ultimate goal for App St is go undefeated beating some decent P5 teams along the way to get to NY6 as...making the final 4 will not happen IMO
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Re: No sunbelt in CFP

Unread post by WVAPPeer » Wed Nov 03, 2021 11:28 am

If you will check Cincy's SOS you will see it is 94
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Re: No sunbelt in CFP

Unread post by Appst86 » Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:36 pm

Humor me for a bit: rewind to 2020 and assume no Covid. We have both Wisconsin and WF on our schedule. We finish 13-0; Wisc finishes 12-1 and beat a 12-1 Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship handing OSU their only loss. WF is 12-1 and beat a 11-1 Clemson (only loss to WF) in the regular season and beats UNC in the ACC Championship handing UNC their only loss. Does App State (or substitute any G5) make the CFP?

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Re: No sunbelt in CFP

Unread post by AppSt94 » Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:12 pm

brianowen wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 12:36 pm
Humor me for a bit: rewind to 2020 and assume no Covid. We have both Wisconsin and WF on our schedule. We finish 13-0; Wisc finishes 12-1 and beat a 12-1 Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship handing OSU their only loss. WF is 12-1 and beat a 11-1 Clemson (only loss to WF) in the regular season and beats UNC in the ACC Championship handing UNC their only loss. Does App State (or substitute any G5) make the CFP?
Nope. Good question but here is why I say no. As conference champs, Wake and Wisconsin are in for sure. That leaves two spots. One most assuredly goes to the SEC champ. So now you are grouping App in with OSU, UNC and Clemson at 1 loss and presumably the second place team from the SEC for that last spot. I just don’t see how any G5 can pull it off.

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Re: No sunbelt in CFP

Unread post by AppSt94 » Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:14 pm

WVAPPeer wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 11:28 am
If you will check Cincy's SOS you will see it is 94
This and the fact that they beat Norte Dame, a 5-3 UCF and no one else they have faced has a winning record.

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Re: No sunbelt in CFP

Unread post by Yosef77 » Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:59 pm

I just checked our SOS and noticed that NO FBS teams we have played so far has a losing record.

ECU - 4-4
Miami 4-4
Marshall 5-3
GSU 4-4
ULM 4-4
Coastal 7-1
Louisiana 7-1

No losers in the bunch. That's a pretty good schedule.

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Re: No sunbelt in CFP

Unread post by bigdaddyg » Wed Nov 03, 2021 2:18 pm

AppSt94 wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:14 pm
WVAPPeer wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 11:28 am
If you will check Cincy's SOS you will see it is 94
This and the fact that they beat Norte Dame, a 5-3 UCF and no one else they have faced has a winning record.
Bingo! That means something to me. While you can only play the opponents on your schedule and can’t control SOS it is real and happens. Obviously as far as App goes our SOS can go up if La, Coastal, ECU and Miami keep winning. Cincinnati can drop if some of the dogs they beat keep losing. This metric should not even consider style points which I think is kind of stupid. If a good team just catches a bad team playing over their heads one day and is winning by 14 entering the 4th quarter the game is about in hand. Is it really necessary to add 2 more TD’s? While I know people are all about style, like a guy said earlier it’s never been the style at App to pour it on. Could we have hung 70 on Monroe Saturday? Probably

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Re: No sunbelt in CFP

Unread post by AppSt94 » Wed Nov 03, 2021 2:38 pm

bigdaddyg wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 2:18 pm
AppSt94 wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 1:14 pm
WVAPPeer wrote:
Wed Nov 03, 2021 11:28 am
If you will check Cincy's SOS you will see it is 94
This and the fact that they beat Norte Dame, a 5-3 UCF and no one else they have faced has a winning record.
Bingo! That means something to me. While you can only play the opponents on your schedule and can’t control SOS it is real and happens. Obviously as far as App goes our SOS can go up if La, Coastal, ECU and Miami keep winning. Cincinnati can drop if some of the dogs they beat keep losing. This metric should not even consider style points which I think is kind of stupid. If a good team just catches a bad team playing over their heads one day and is winning by 14 entering the 4th quarter the game is about in hand. Is it really necessary to add 2 more TD’s? While I know people are all about style, like a guy said earlier it’s never been the style at App to pour it on. Could we have hung 70 on Monroe Saturday? Probably
The record of Cincy’s FBS opponents played to date is 24-33. Keeping in mind that 7-1 of that is ND. The record of their remaining opponents is 16-16. 7-1 of that is SMU.

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Re: No sunbelt in CFP

Unread post by Yosefus » Wed Nov 03, 2021 2:47 pm

I am glad I am not in the selection committee. We would still be working on the rankings. IMHO Cincy would beat all ranked above them except Alabama and Georgia and they can beat Alabama just like A&M did. Not sure anyone is beating the Bulldogs this year. Maybe no Sunbelt in the first ranking is accurate. I kind of thought the Ragin Napier's would make it in the first rankings.

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Re: No sunbelt in CFP

Unread post by AppStFan1 » Wed Nov 03, 2021 5:58 pm

/\PP ST/\TE GRAD 09 wrote:
Tue Nov 02, 2021 8:25 pm
Outside of Notre Dame, who has Cincinnati played? Past two games were way closer than they should have been considering Navy and Tulane each have one win. You can't control your schedule, but you definitely have to show better performances against inferior opponents. Every team ranked ahead of them would have had backups in by the 3rd quarter against Navy and Tulane. Additionally from the games I've seen this year, every team ranked ahead of Cincinnati would beat Cincinnati if they played today.

For Cincinnati to have a chance they need to blow teams out the rest of the year. I think if that happens they have a stronger argument.
Exactly. Cincinnati can actually get in but they need to be impressive. Close games against weak teams every week is not going to do it. Margin of victory matters big time for a G5 and I understand it. You can have one close game but if it is close every week then you will drop.

Those of you who are up in arms right now need to relax and let it play out. What if Cincy loses a game in the next 3 weeks? Then all the complaints will have been pointless. Give it through the end of this month and see where the teams are ranked. We have a lot of football to play. CCU and Louisiana both will finish ranked if they win out.

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