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Big Ten...Uhhh Sixteen

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Re: Big Ten...Uhhh Sixteen

Unread post by /\PP ST/\TE GRAD 09 » Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:16 pm

Rewind almost 10 years ago and most of us on here knew this would eventually become the reality. Over the years I'm sure some thought the ACC would come knocking or maybe even the AAC would send an invite based off of our success on the football field. Fact is we just don't have anything to offer in terms of a market, and after December, what other sports can we say are really that appealing?

As a long time college sports fan that for many years looked forward to Saturdays more than Sundays, I've slowly found myself watching more NFL games and not as interested in the NCAA games (Outside of App State games). No doubt I'll still watch the prime time games or other great match ups, but between the conferences changing constantly, the transfer portal being crazy, I guess you could say it's removed the joy out of it for me.

We've got a more regional conference set up now, putting old rivals JMU and Marshall on the schedule every year now. It's exciting. I'd take our position over wherever the left out P5 schools scramble to fall. I wouldn't even want to be in the shoes of a middle of the pack Big Ten team or SEC once Oklahoma and Texas join, because now recruiting and the schedule just got that much harder.

In the perfect world we'd be playing Alabama every year, and packing a world class KBS with 100k every home game. But for the reality of the situation, I like what we've got going.
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Re: Big Ten...Uhhh Sixteen

Unread post by ah59396 » Fri Jul 01, 2022 2:30 am

HighlandsApp wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:54 pm
We aren't going anywhere and likely no other Sun Belt teams are either. Only school that fits the AAC dynamic is GaSt.

I doubt that this affects the ACC. Obviously, when FSU and Clemson join the SEC then the ACC will be affected.

Will Notre Dame join the B1G as they are likely loosing more potential scheduling opponents?
I think the ACC is dead in the water. Their tv deal stinks in comparison to the BIG10 and SEC deals and that’ll only get worse. I read earlier that Notre Dame would have to pay $120m to sever their ACC deal and they’d STILL turn a profit joining the BIG for their tv deal. That’s how lucrative it is.

The writing is on the wall, a super league is forming with two major conferences (SEC/BIG10). The PAC is already dead losing the LA market entirely and there’s absolutely nothing they can backfill with worth a damn. The PAC tv deal does not improve adding Boise, SDSU etc. Even worse if they lose Washington and Oregon, which they will. BIG12 is on life support already.

It’s gonna take one announcement of an ACC school departing, likely Carolina, FSU or Clemson, then it’ll be lifeboats leaving the titanic.

When the dust settles you’ll have a super league of 40-ish teams, then a mishmash of conferences beneath it (including us). I’d be shitting my pants right now as an NC State, Louisville, TCU, etc fan. These poor saps are gonna go from P5 to playing Wednesday ball with us.

I do agree this is unlikely to effect us. If anything we add more “G5” schools from the leftovers and informal becomes formal - it’s D1-AA all over again. Which I’m fine with.
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Re: Big Ten...Uhhh Sixteen

Unread post by mikeyosef » Fri Jul 01, 2022 6:04 am

ShagNC wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 1:22 pm
You have to think Oregon and Washington are scrambling right now, but where do they go?
Maybe they move to the SEC....makes about as much sense as UCLA and USC moving to the Big Ten. The persistent choice of TV money, in the short run, over geography and natural rivalries is killing college football. It's nuts in my opinion.

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Re: Big Ten...Uhhh Sixteen

Unread post by Bootsy » Fri Jul 01, 2022 6:19 am

There is little tangible loyalty to conferences where football is concerned...SEC and B1G being the exceptions.

As things continue down this road, this will prove to be VERY messy. it's going to be every school for itself. Fans will be hyper concerned about their school being left out of the top tier in football.

But how does that impact alignments where basketball, softball, baseball, track & field, soccer, etc. are concerned? Do the current conference alignments stand? Doubtful, since football drives the revenue train and (like it or not) some of these conferences are bound to disappear. Clearly no easy answers here, but one thing's for certain...

Gonna be MESSY, y'all.

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Re: Big Ten...Uhhh Sixteen

Unread post by AppSt94 » Fri Jul 01, 2022 6:56 am

ah59396 wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 2:30 am
HighlandsApp wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:54 pm
We aren't going anywhere and likely no other Sun Belt teams are either. Only school that fits the AAC dynamic is GaSt.

I doubt that this affects the ACC. Obviously, when FSU and Clemson join the SEC then the ACC will be affected.

Will Notre Dame join the B1G as they are likely loosing more potential scheduling opponents?
I think the ACC is dead in the water. Their tv deal stinks in comparison to the BIG10 and SEC deals and that’ll only get worse. I read earlier that Notre Dame would have to pay $120m to sever their ACC deal and they’d STILL turn a profit joining the BIG for their tv deal. That’s how lucrative it is.

The writing is on the wall, a super league is forming with two major conferences (SEC/BIG10). The PAC is already dead losing the LA market entirely and there’s absolutely nothing they can backfill with worth a damn. The PAC tv deal does not improve adding Boise, SDSU etc. Even worse if they lose Washington and Oregon, which they will. BIG12 is on life support already.

It’s gonna take one announcement of an ACC school departing, likely Carolina, FSU or Clemson, then it’ll be lifeboats leaving the titanic.

When the dust settles you’ll have a super league of 40-ish teams, then a mishmash of conferences beneath it (including us). I’d be shitting my pants right now as an NC State, Louisville, TCU, etc fan. These poor saps are gonna go from P5 to playing Wednesday ball with us.

I do agree this is unlikely to effect us. If anything we add more “G5” schools from the leftovers and informal becomes formal - it’s D1-AA all over again. Which I’m fine with.
I agree with most of this. I wonder which 40 teams make up this new league.

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Re: Big Ten...Uhhh Sixteen

Unread post by appstate24 » Fri Jul 01, 2022 7:23 am

mikeyosef wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 6:04 am
ShagNC wrote:
Thu Jun 30, 2022 1:22 pm
You have to think Oregon and Washington are scrambling right now, but where do they go?
Maybe they move to the SEC....makes about as much sense as UCLA and USC moving to the Big Ten. The persistent choice of TV money, in the short run, over geography and natural rivalries is killing college football. It's nuts in my opinion.
Reports are that Oregon and Washington reached out to the BIG10 last night, hoping/begging for an invite. One things for sure, this is about to be a wild ride.

GO APPS!!

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Re: Big Ten...Uhhh Sixteen

Unread post by canes_mj » Fri Jul 01, 2022 8:07 am

ACC is about to get carved up. Clemson, FSU, UNC, Duke (adds nothing in fb but imo Big10/SEC would take them for the bball and to get UNC), UVa all have value. NC State has value too for a conference to get into NC market; UNC will be the first choice and State will go to whichever conference UNC doesn't go to. Same possibly for VT.

Per ESPN, the Big 10 is on the verge of signing a $1 billion TV deal...which they said would pay each member school significantly more than the ACC could ever offer. It's too much to turn down.

My question is what's going to happen with Notre Dame. And secondarily, teams like Miami and Gerogia Tech, which have some but less value; not sure what will happen with them.

Interesting article outlining some potential moves....bottom line, this is happening. Schools better be proactive to get into the Big 10 or SEC or they're left behind.
https://sports.yahoo.com/after-big-tens ... 24122.html
Last edited by canes_mj on Fri Jul 01, 2022 8:15 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Big Ten...Uhhh Sixteen

Unread post by AppSt94 » Fri Jul 01, 2022 8:14 am

canes_mj wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 8:07 am
ACC is about to get carved up. Clemson, FSU, UNC, Duke (adds nothing in fb but imo Big10/SEC would take them for the bball and to get UNC), UVa all have value. NC State has value too for a conference to get into NC market; UNC will be the first choice and State will go to whichever conference UNC doesn't go to. Same possibly for VT.

Per ESPN, the Big 10 is on the verge of signing a $1 billion TV deal...which they said would pay each member school significantly more than the ACC could ever offer. It's too much to turn down.

My question is what's going to happen with Notre Dame. And secondarily, teams like Miami and Gerogia Tech, which have some but less value; not sure what will happen with them.
The leftovers will be fine. One thing that I can see having a negative impact on App is if these “Super Leagues” break away from the NCAA and change scholarship numbers. If they raise it to 100, that will water down the pool of talent available to the other schools.

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Re: Big Ten...Uhhh Sixteen

Unread post by t4pizza » Fri Jul 01, 2022 8:15 am

The biggest issue with the ACC is the "ironclad" grand of rights that each school signed until 2036. The conference owns the media rights of those schools. If those schools leave the ACC, they don't get all that big time tv money from the new conference, the ACC gets it because it owns the rights to those schools. At least that is my understanding of the situation without having read the contracts. That is why I said earlier that in order for the ACC to survive, it must find a way to add new teams or all agree to blow up the grant of rights, they need something that will allow a renegotiation of tv contract. I do find it funny that in an attempt to stabilize their conference, the ACC entered into a 20 year deal with grant of rights to make sure no school could leave. The SEC and BIG 10 don't have extremely long deals and there are no grant of rights, any school could leave if they wanted but no school would ever want it. Now, just a mere 6 years later it looks like that effort to stabilize the ACC will do nothing but prevent it from competing on a national scale.

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Re: Big Ten...Uhhh Sixteen

Unread post by BambooRdApp » Fri Jul 01, 2022 8:19 am

The other potential impact, from a G5 fan perspective, is if the super conferences make a decision that they only play P5 opponents for their entire schedule given added investment by TV sponsors. Personally, I look forward to App St playing P5 schools, whether teams at top of P5, middle or bottom half of the P5 conference. I hope this is not eliminated in the process over time.
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Re: Big Ten...Uhhh Sixteen

Unread post by canes_mj » Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:02 am

The ACC Grant of Rights is a hurdle, but I don't think it's going to be enough to keep teams from leaving. It'll be an up front hit, but in less than 10 yrs the increased amount teams would make from joining the 2 super leagues would exceed money lost from GOR. And the gap's only going to get wider; taking the long view, what would the next TV contract be for the Big10/SEC vs ACC? Here's 2 articles below. There's ways to soften that hit too, such as already members schools helping to pay it off.

The bit in the one article about ESPN's role in the this is telling too; ESPN can lean on the ACC to let this happen...if ACC fights it, ESPN could easily hint that there won't be a next contract at all for the ACC from ESPN...then what? I heard John Skipper on Lebatard's radio show all but admitting that the main driver for all expansion/realignment has been TV, chief of which was ESPN.

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Re: Big Ten...Uhhh Sixteen

Unread post by HighlandsApp » Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:15 am

This is the primary list for conference expansion. The schools on this list that aren't in the SEC or B1G are targets:

RANK
SCHOOL
REVENUES ($)
2018 VALUE ($)
1 Texas 163,928,296 1,105,493,378
2 Ohio State 136,574,384 1,048,166,317
3 Alabama 140,831,439 1,009,903,620
4 Michigan 133,665,548 924,625,003
5 Notre Dame 118,740,294 913,401,562
6 Georgia 138,088,467 891,099,506
7 Oklahoma 126,416,865 885,558,053
8 Auburn 128,960,499 871,907,615
9 LSU 122,703,938 852,445,897
10 Tennessee 113,766,836 727,849,384
11 Florida 117,963,328 634,885,946
12 Texas A & M 101,114,415 540,883,003
13 Penn State 103,736,242 518,754,453
14 Wisconsin 88,713,614 474,552,451
15 Nebraska 93,990,274 471,585,561
16 Arkansas 99,599,352 462,727,317
17 South Carolina 101,297,652 460,753,199
18 Iowa 100,040,046 458,973,690
19 Washington 102,248,826 440,821,919
20 Michigan State 75,674,898 354,160,110
21 Oregon 81,953,780 348,920,032
22 Mississippi 78,736,032 341,560,846
23 Southern California 74,174,551 326,021,581
24 UCLA 64,845,985 302,006,607
25 Arizona State 70,375,000 300,826,000
26 Clemson 72,218,581 298,051,865
27 Florida State 94,597,591 289,776,745
28 Virginia Tech 65,851,157 278,315,358
29 Kansas State 68,787,446 277,146,330
30 Oklahoma State 63,909,363 270,953,731
31 Kentucky 66,574,141 270,898,513
32 Minnesota 73,576,081 269,798,883
33 Texas Tech 61,914,432 244,097,131
34 Stanford 68,340,862 232,872,852
35 Miss State 50,754,094 223,175,464
36 Georgia Tech 59,422,543 215,013,855
37 Utah 61,344,782 213,586,437
38 Colorado 72,425,832 208,242,792
39 Kansas 64,704,137 208,020,519
40 California Berkeley 61,566,987 198,881,848
41 Miami of Florida 47,820,654 193,474,341
42 Texas Christian 66,084,236 191,286,297
43 Iowa State 47,732,812 187,819,863
44 Indiana 61,193,975 181,988,355
45 Northwestern 58,545,202 179,637,659
46 North Carolina State 51,911,816 179,255,274
47 Louisville 58,011,677 175,765,264
48 Arizona 51,865,116 166,020,258
49 Illinois 52,784,303 156,797,041
50 North Carolina 50,024,180 155,246,919

This is the other for the B1G only the SEC doesn't care about this one:

AAU membership:

Public
Georgia Institute of Technology (2010)
Indiana University (1909)
Michigan State University (1964)
The Ohio State University (1916)
The Pennsylvania State University (1958)
Purdue University (1958)
Rutgers University – New Brunswick (1989)
Stony Brook University – The State University of New York (2001)
Texas A&M University (2001)
University at Buffalo – The State University of New York (1989)
Texas A&M University (2001)
University at Buffalo – The State University of New York (1989)
The University of Arizona (1985)
University of California, Davis (1996)
University of California, Berkeley (1900)
University of California, Irvine (1996)
University of California, Los Angeles (1974)
University of California, San Diego (1982)
University of California, Santa Barbara (1995)
University of California, Santa Cruz (2019)
University of Colorado, Boulder (1966)
University of Florida (1985)
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (1908)
The University of Iowa (1909)
The University of Kansas (1909)
University of Maryland at College Park (1969)
University of Michigan (1900)
University of Minnesota, Twin Cities (1908)
University of Missouri, Columbia (1908)
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (1922)
University of Oregon (1969)
University of Pittsburgh (1974)
The University of Texas at Austin (1929)
The University of Utah (2019)
University of Virginia (1904)
University of Washington (1950)
The University of Wisconsin – Madison (1900)

Private
Boston University (2012)
Brandeis University (1985)
Brown University (1933)
California Institute of Technology (1934)
Carnegie Mellon University (1982)
Case Western Reserve University (1969)
Columbia University (1900)
Cornell University (1900)
Dartmouth College (2019)
Duke University (1938)
Emory University (1995)
Harvard University (1900)
The Johns Hopkins University (1900)
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1934)
New York University (1950)
Northwestern University (1917)
Princeton University (1900)
Rice University (1985)
Stanford University (1900)
Tufts University (2021)
Tulane University (1958)
The University of Chicago (1900)
University of Pennsylvania (1900)
University of Rochester (1941)
University of Southern California (1969)
Vanderbilt University (1950)
Washington University in St. Louis (1923

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Re: Big Ten...Uhhh Sixteen

Unread post by HighlandsApp » Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:24 am

https://sports.yahoo.com/pac-12-acc-had ... 05174.html

The ACC and PAC12 did this to themselves

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Re: Big Ten...Uhhh Sixteen

Unread post by appst89 » Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:32 am

The only chance the ACC has to survive is to do something drastic. If I were the ACC commish, I'd be on the phone to Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Utah, Stanford and the Arizonas trying to sell them on becoming the All Coast Conference. Even that might not be enough.

The interesting thing about the media deals is that the B1G is a Fox property. So, E$PN might allow the ACC to pursue those West Coast schools. Or maybe they won't.

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Re: Big Ten...Uhhh Sixteen

Unread post by hapapp » Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:36 am

appst89 wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:32 am
The only chance the ACC has to survive is to do something drastic. If I were the ACC commish, I'd be on the phone to Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Utah, Stanford and the Arizonas trying to sell them on becoming the All Coast Conference. Even that might not be enough.

The interesting thing about the media deals is that the B1G is a Fox property. So, E$PN might allow the ACC to pursue those West Coast schools. Or maybe they won't.
The fact that Fox Sports is now playing a big role has only upped the competition and contracts. ESPN is not driving the bus alone.

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Re: Big Ten...Uhhh Sixteen

Unread post by HighlandsApp » Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:51 am

appst89 wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:32 am
The only chance the ACC has to survive is to do something drastic. If I were the ACC commish, I'd be on the phone to Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Utah, Stanford and the Arizonas trying to sell them on becoming the All Coast Conference. Even that might not be enough.

The interesting thing about the media deals is that the B1G is a Fox property. So, E$PN might allow the ACC to pursue those West Coast schools. Or maybe they won't.
If the SEC responds then FSU and Clemson are gone. Notre Dame will never join ACC in football and probably never was going to but they are likely in discussions with B1G at this point after USC news.

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Re: Big Ten...Uhhh Sixteen

Unread post by WASU 93 » Fri Jul 01, 2022 11:02 am

AppSt94 wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 8:14 am
canes_mj wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 8:07 am
ACC is about to get carved up. Clemson, FSU, UNC, Duke (adds nothing in fb but imo Big10/SEC would take them for the bball and to get UNC), UVa all have value. NC State has value too for a conference to get into NC market; UNC will be the first choice and State will go to whichever conference UNC doesn't go to. Same possibly for VT.

Per ESPN, the Big 10 is on the verge of signing a $1 billion TV deal...which they said would pay each member school significantly more than the ACC could ever offer. It's too much to turn down.

My question is what's going to happen with Notre Dame. And secondarily, teams like Miami and Gerogia Tech, which have some but less value; not sure what will happen with them.
The leftovers will be fine. One thing that I can see having a negative impact on App is if these “Super Leagues” break away from the NCAA and change scholarship numbers. If they raise it to 100, that will water down the pool of talent available to the other schools.
They could raise it to 100, but as we are already seeing with the transfer portal, kids want to play. 15 more on the bench doesn’t really do anything. However, they could shrink rosters to 65-70 and pay them all via NIL, resembling a bloated NFL roster.

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Re: Big Ten...Uhhh Sixteen

Unread post by appst89 » Fri Jul 01, 2022 11:16 am

HighlandsApp wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:51 am
appst89 wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:32 am
The only chance the ACC has to survive is to do something drastic. If I were the ACC commish, I'd be on the phone to Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Utah, Stanford and the Arizonas trying to sell them on becoming the All Coast Conference. Even that might not be enough.

The interesting thing about the media deals is that the B1G is a Fox property. So, E$PN might allow the ACC to pursue those West Coast schools. Or maybe they won't.
If the SEC responds then FSU and Clemson are gone. Notre Dame will never join ACC in football and probably never was going to but they are likely in discussions with B1G at this point after USC news.
I know that anything can happen, but there was an SEC guy on SiriusXM last night who said that the SEC has little interest in Clemson, FSU or Miami because those are markets they already control. Said VT and NC State would be more likely.

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Re: Big Ten...Uhhh Sixteen

Unread post by ericsaid » Fri Jul 01, 2022 12:14 pm

canes_mj wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 8:07 am
ACC is about to get carved up. Clemson, FSU, UNC, Duke (adds nothing in fb but imo Big10/SEC would take them for the bball and to get UNC), UVa all have value. NC State has value too for a conference to get into NC market; UNC will be the first choice and State will go to whichever conference UNC doesn't go to. Same possibly for VT.

Per ESPN, the Big 10 is on the verge of signing a $1 billion TV deal...which they said would pay each member school significantly more than the ACC could ever offer. It's too much to turn down.

My question is what's going to happen with Notre Dame. And secondarily, teams like Miami and Gerogia Tech, which have some but less value; not sure what will happen with them.

Interesting article outlining some potential moves....bottom line, this is happening. Schools better be proactive to get into the Big 10 or SEC or they're left behind.
https://sports.yahoo.com/after-big-tens ... 24122.html
Miami is going to be fine. They are strong in most athletics and have a nationwide brand.

I also think the ACC will be fine. They are where they are which is behind the Big 10 and SEC. With Clemson, UNC, Miami, and Florida State spending cash, you may see them improve to the point that their value grows. In reality, the ACC needs two other power teams to show up and I feel like Miami is that next program. Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and a few others may have issues though.

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Re: Big Ten...Uhhh Sixteen

Unread post by ericsaid » Fri Jul 01, 2022 12:15 pm

appst89 wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 11:16 am
HighlandsApp wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:51 am
appst89 wrote:
Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:32 am
The only chance the ACC has to survive is to do something drastic. If I were the ACC commish, I'd be on the phone to Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Utah, Stanford and the Arizonas trying to sell them on becoming the All Coast Conference. Even that might not be enough.

The interesting thing about the media deals is that the B1G is a Fox property. So, E$PN might allow the ACC to pursue those West Coast schools. Or maybe they won't.
If the SEC responds then FSU and Clemson are gone. Notre Dame will never join ACC in football and probably never was going to but they are likely in discussions with B1G at this point after USC news.
I know that anything can happen, but there was an SEC guy on SiriusXM last night who said that the SEC has little interest in Clemson, FSU or Miami because those are markets they already control. Said VT and NC State would be more likely.
The SEC does not control Miami. They may have the University of Florida but below Lakeland, most people see UF as the region of backwater rednecks (which is fairly accurate).

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