Sagarin Ratings
Posted: Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:05 am
48 after week one. Slightly ahead of Carolina Blue, slightly behind Carolina Garnet.......and waaaaaay up on Charlotte.
http://www.yosefscabin.com/forum/
Not a fan either. It's bonkers they rank ahead of South Carolina and us.Black Saturday wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2019 5:12 pmI have a problem being behind NDSU. Our program has progressed miles ahead of being FCS. APPs 2019 version has way more depth than any of our FCS championship teams. NDSU is a playing in a shallow pool.
Until they start losing to power 5 teams and stop winning national championships, I think their spot is well deserved. Hell we didn’t even beat Wake.Black Saturday wrote: ↑Tue Sep 03, 2019 5:12 pmI have a problem being behind NDSU. Our program has progressed miles ahead of being FCS. APPs 2019 version has way more depth than any of our FCS championship teams. NDSU is a playing in a shallow pool.
Lets look at the P5s we've faced in that time frame vs. NDSU:ArmantiWaterSafety wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2019 12:56 pm# of NDSU wins against P5 since 2010 - 5
# of App State wins against P5 since 2010 - 0
Yes, most of our losses were against ranked P5 (which 1 of their wins was against a ranked P5) but let's all get off of our high horses and start winning some games against P5's like our "lesser" competition has done.
TBH, I'd say your list (nice job putting that together, btw) puts the lie to the old "App always catches P5s at their best" myth. We did catch Clemson and '16 Georgia just as they made big jumps. Otherwise, that VT season was about par for the course for them at that time. Miami and Tennessee each had one of their better recent teams when we faced them, but certainly not near their historical peaks. Penn State dropped off from the previous couple seasons. Florida and '13 Georgia had relatively down years by their standards. Michigan had arguably their worst team in recent memory. I guess you'd have to include Wake as being at a high point, but they were still very beatable.StorminASU wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:17 pmLets look at the P5s we've faced in that time frame vs. NDSU:ArmantiWaterSafety wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2019 12:56 pm# of NDSU wins against P5 since 2010 - 5
# of App State wins against P5 since 2010 - 0
Yes, most of our losses were against ranked P5 (which 1 of their wins was against a ranked P5) but let's all get off of our high horses and start winning some games against P5's like our "lesser" competition has done.
NDSU
2010 Kansas - Finished 3-9
2011 Minnesota - Finished 3-9
2012 Colorado State - Finished 4-8 (Not P5)
2013 Kansas State - Finished 8-5
2014 Iowa State - Finished 2-10
2016 #13 Iowa - Finished 8-5 (Did not finish in top 25)
Now let's look at the FBS opponents App has faced:
2010 #4 Florida - Finished 8-5 (App was FCS)
2011 #13 Virginia Tech - Finished 11-3 (App was FCS)(VT ended season ranked #21)
2012 East Carolina - Finished 8-5 (App was FCS)(Not P5, which doesn't help)
2013 #25 Georgia - Finished 8-5 (App was FCS)
2014 Michigan - Finished 5-7 (App was transitioning)
2015 #12 Clemson - Finished 14-1 (Lost in semifinals to Alabama)(Ended at #2)
2016 #9 Tennessee - Finished 9-4 (Ended at #22)
2016 #25 Miami - Finished 9-4 (Ended at #20)
2017 #15 Georgia - Finished 13-2 (Lost in semifinals to Alabama)(Ended at #2)
2017 Wake Forest - Finished 8-5
2018 #10 Penn State- Finished 9-4 (Ended at #17)
Now there are more than 1 game in there we could've/should've won, but for the most part, we have played much, much harder competition than the P5s that NDSU has went up against. ECU (not P5, which makes it worse) & Wake are the clear outliers to an otherwise ridiculous scheduling coincidence of App playing P5 teams at their best. Might count Michigan too, but there was clearly a revenge factor there.
Regardless, we gotta start beating some P5s!!!
"2015 Clemson", and "2017 Georgia" you're showing as losing in semifinals but weren't those losses in the national championship games? Which resulted in their final rankings at #2? Not being critical of your post, I actually love what you did, just clarifying that since 2015 we've played two teams that ended up playing in the national championship game.StorminASU wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:17 pmLets look at the P5s we've faced in that time frame vs. NDSU:ArmantiWaterSafety wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2019 12:56 pm# of NDSU wins against P5 since 2010 - 5
# of App State wins against P5 since 2010 - 0
Yes, most of our losses were against ranked P5 (which 1 of their wins was against a ranked P5) but let's all get off of our high horses and start winning some games against P5's like our "lesser" competition has done.
NDSU
2010 Kansas - Finished 3-9
2011 Minnesota - Finished 3-9
2012 Colorado State - Finished 4-8 (Not P5)
2013 Kansas State - Finished 8-5
2014 Iowa State - Finished 2-10
2016 #13 Iowa - Finished 8-5 (Did not finish in top 25)
Now let's look at the FBS opponents App has faced:
2010 #4 Florida - Finished 8-5 (App was FCS)
2011 #13 Virginia Tech - Finished 11-3 (App was FCS)(VT ended season ranked #21)
2012 East Carolina - Finished 8-5 (App was FCS)(Not P5, which doesn't help)
2013 #25 Georgia - Finished 8-5 (App was FCS)
2014 Michigan - Finished 5-7 (App was transitioning)
2015 #12 Clemson - Finished 14-1 (Lost in semifinals to Alabama)(Ended at #2)
2016 #9 Tennessee - Finished 9-4 (Ended at #22)
2016 #25 Miami - Finished 9-4 (Ended at #20)
2017 #15 Georgia - Finished 13-2 (Lost in semifinals to Alabama)(Ended at #2)
2017 Wake Forest - Finished 8-5
2018 #10 Penn State- Finished 9-4 (Ended at #17)
Now there are more than 1 game in there we could've/should've won, but for the most part, we have played much, much harder competition than the P5s that NDSU has went up against. ECU (not P5, which makes it worse) & Wake are the clear outliers to an otherwise ridiculous scheduling coincidence of App playing P5 teams at their best. Might count Michigan too, but there was clearly a revenge factor there.
Regardless, we gotta start beating some P5s!!!
It's odd to think how the narrative might have changed if we beat TN, Wake and Penn as well.Rick83 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:01 pm"2015 Clemson", and "2017 Georgia" you're showing as losing in semifinals but weren't those losses in the national championship games? Which resulted in their final rankings at #2? Not being critical of your post, I actually love what you did, just clarifying that since 2015 we've played two teams that ended up playing in the national championship game.StorminASU wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:17 pmLets look at the P5s we've faced in that time frame vs. NDSU:ArmantiWaterSafety wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2019 12:56 pm# of NDSU wins against P5 since 2010 - 5
# of App State wins against P5 since 2010 - 0
Yes, most of our losses were against ranked P5 (which 1 of their wins was against a ranked P5) but let's all get off of our high horses and start winning some games against P5's like our "lesser" competition has done.
NDSU
2010 Kansas - Finished 3-9
2011 Minnesota - Finished 3-9
2012 Colorado State - Finished 4-8 (Not P5)
2013 Kansas State - Finished 8-5
2014 Iowa State - Finished 2-10
2016 #13 Iowa - Finished 8-5 (Did not finish in top 25)
Now let's look at the FBS opponents App has faced:
2010 #4 Florida - Finished 8-5 (App was FCS)
2011 #13 Virginia Tech - Finished 11-3 (App was FCS)(VT ended season ranked #21)
2012 East Carolina - Finished 8-5 (App was FCS)(Not P5, which doesn't help)
2013 #25 Georgia - Finished 8-5 (App was FCS)
2014 Michigan - Finished 5-7 (App was transitioning)
2015 #12 Clemson - Finished 14-1 (Lost in semifinals to Alabama)(Ended at #2)
2016 #9 Tennessee - Finished 9-4 (Ended at #22)
2016 #25 Miami - Finished 9-4 (Ended at #20)
2017 #15 Georgia - Finished 13-2 (Lost in semifinals to Alabama)(Ended at #2)
2017 Wake Forest - Finished 8-5
2018 #10 Penn State- Finished 9-4 (Ended at #17)
Now there are more than 1 game in there we could've/should've won, but for the most part, we have played much, much harder competition than the P5s that NDSU has went up against. ECU (not P5, which makes it worse) & Wake are the clear outliers to an otherwise ridiculous scheduling coincidence of App playing P5 teams at their best. Might count Michigan too, but there was clearly a revenge factor there.
Regardless, we gotta start beating some P5s!!!
You're absolutely right, sorry. I corrected it.Rick83 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:01 pm"2015 Clemson", and "2017 Georgia" you're showing as losing in semifinals but weren't those losses in the national championship games? Which resulted in their final rankings at #2? Not being critical of your post, I actually love what you did, just clarifying that since 2015 we've played two teams that ended up playing in the national championship game.
I agree completely. We could have won most of those games as well I'd wager.AtlAppMan wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:40 pmRelative to our past/FCS comparison to NDSU. I would personally throw out the notion that we hit the P5 teams at their peak but rather state that most of our P5 opponents are in the upper tier of FBS. Our P5 opponents are mostly top 25 with several being top 5 teams in those years. The problem we often confronted in FCS was that few FBS teams, other than these top tier teams would even consider playing us.
Our ongoing series with Wake is proof of how we could have had a closer competitive series with many mid-tier P5 year over year IF we could have gotten them on our schedule. Substitute numerous comparable teams to Wake and the outcome would have been similar. That is basically the deal with most of the NDSU opponents listed, not a single top 25 at the end of the respective year they played them. The proof is exactly why Wake stopped playing us because they knew we could win our share and others like Wake didn't want the same.
The story going forward is a bit different now that we are FBS. We do need to step up and beat P5's as we are now on a completely different playing field. All of that stuff above is yesterday's news and we need to move on.
I agree completely and we'd have won the TN and WF games if we wouldn't have had the kicking issues. And of course we'd have most likely won the Penn State game if Jalin hadn't been such a beast and scored that last touchdown so quickly...so close...so freakin' close on all 3 of those games!StorminASU wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2019 8:56 pmYou're absolutely right, sorry. I corrected it.Rick83 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:01 pm"2015 Clemson", and "2017 Georgia" you're showing as losing in semifinals but weren't those losses in the national championship games? Which resulted in their final rankings at #2? Not being critical of your post, I actually love what you did, just clarifying that since 2015 we've played two teams that ended up playing in the national championship game.
I was just making the point that regardless of whether we caught teams at there best or not, we played significantly better competition over that same time period.