bigdaddyg wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:52 am

Not easy to interpret but is the projection having us a lose another game? If so they are predicting Troy to beat us?

appchicago wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:23 am

bigdaddyg wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:52 am

Not easy to interpret but is the projection having us a lose another game? If so they are predicting Troy to beat us?

No, it's saying we have the best chance of any team in college football to win all of our remaining games. It's giving us a 50.9% chance of winning out and a 71.7% chance of winning our conference (the third and fourth columns). We're the only team in FBS with a greater than 50% chance of winning out. You can sort by Win Out % and see that Clemson is next in line with 47.1%, followed by Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Alabama in the 30s and Penn State, North Texas and Army in the 20s. The vast majority of schools are in the single digits, and everyone else in the SunBelt has a 2.7% or lower chance of winning out. (Quite a few SunBelt teams are given a 0.0% chance of winning out, though I don't know how they can be certain. After all, we were 1-5 at this point a few years ago, were we not? And we won out.)

This drills down a little more per game: http://www.espn.com/college-football/te ... &year=2018
Per the win projections listed there, our best chance at a loss actually comes against GaSo, where we're predicted to have a 77% chance of winning. It gives us an 86.9% chance of beating Troy and an 89.7% chance of beating Coastal. The rest of the games have win probs in the high 90s.

Edited to add: Okay, so the win out probability is defined as such: "Percent of season simulations in which team won all remaining scheduled games as well as conference championship game (if applicable)." So in addition to it being unlikely that some of those teams win their remaining regular season games, they would also need to make and win the conf. championship to win out. Since I suppose some SBC teams are already eliminated from the possibility of going to and winning the conference championship, I can see the 0.0% of winning out.

appchicago wrote: ↑

Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:56 am

Ha. No worries. Let's just say it this way:

Of all the teams of fellers who play with that funny shaped ball, and all the things that could happen, we have somewhere between a 3-out-of-4 and a 9-out-of-10 chance of winning each game we play from here on out. So, altogether, we have a better than fifty-fifty chance of winning every remaining game, including the conference championship.

Better chance than a coin flip of winning every game we play from here on out. No other team in FBS--including Bama, Clemson, or Ohio State-- can say that.

Of course anything can happen. I am sure our chances of winning out at this point in 2014 when we were 1-5 were very low, but that's what we did.