Can the Sun Belt sustain?

[8993]

After watching this season of Sun Belt football, I am starting to question whether or not the current model/lineup of the Sun Belt Conference can sustain over a long time period. While Appalachian and Troy are doing fairly well for themselves, there are a few schools that have either fallen from grace or never been close to it. I'm going to break down each team and their records as of late, just to see where the conference's current members are at and where they've come from:

Appalachian State
2010: 10-3 (losses to GS, Florida, and Villanova)
2011: 8-4 (losses to VT, Wofford, Furman, and Maine)
2012: 8-4 (losses to ECU, The Citadel, Wofford, and Illinois State)
2013: 4-8 (losses to Montana, NCA&T, Charleston Southern, The Citadel, Samford, Furman, UTC, and UGA)
2014: 7-5 (losses to Michigan, USM, GS, USA, and Liberty)
2015: 11-2 (losses to Clemson and stAte)
2016 (so far): 4-2 (losses to UTK and Miami)

Arkansas State
2010: 4-8 (losses to ULM, UNT, FAU, and MTSU)
2011: 10-3 (losses to Illinois, VT, and NIU)
2012: 10-3 (losses to Oregon, Nebraska, and WKU)
2013: 8-5 (losses to Auburn, Memphis, Missouri, ULL, and WKU)
2014: 7-6 (losses to Tennessee, Miami, ULL, App State, Texas State, and Toledo)
2015: 9-4 (losses to USC, Missouri, Toledo, and Louisiana Tech)
2016 (so far): 2-4 (losses to Toledo, Auburn, Utah State, and Central Arkansas)

Georgia Southern
2010: 10-5 (losses to Navy, Wofford, UTC, Samford, and Delaware)
2011: 11-3 (losses to App State, Alabama, and NDSU)
2012: 10-4 (losses to The Citadel, App State, Georgia, and NDSU)
2013: 5-4 (losses to Wofford, Samford, App State, and Furman) [2 wins vacated this season]
2014: 8-3 (losses to NC State, Georgia Tech, and Navy) [1 win vacated this season]
2015: 9-4 (losses to WVU, App State, Georgia, and Georgia State)
2016 (so far): 3-3 (losses to Western Michigan, stAte, and GT)

Georgia State
2010: 6-5 (losses to Lambuth, Jacksonville State, Old Dominion, South Alabama, and Alabama)
2011: 4-7 (losses to ODU, JSU, Houston, Murray State, UTSA, St. Francis, and West Alabama)
2012: 1-10 (losses to SC State, Tennessee, Richmond, UTSA, William & Mary, New Hampshire, Villanova, JMU, ODU, and Maine)
2013: 0-12 (losses to Samford, UTC, WVU, JSU, Alabama, Troy, Texas State, ULM, WKU, ULL, stAte, and USA)
2014: 1-11 (losses to NMSU, Air Force, Washington, ULL, stAte, USA, GS, App, Troy, Clemson, and TXST)
2015: 6-7 (losses to Charlotte, Oregon, Liberty, App, stAte, ULL, and San Jose State)
2016 (so far):

Idaho (I know these guys don't really matter, as they are on their way out, but for perception sake)
2010: 6-7 (losses to Nebraska, Colorado State, Louisiana Tech, Hawaii, Nevada, Boise State, and Fresno State)
2011: 2-10 (losses to Bowling Green, Texas A&M, Fresno State, UVA, Louisiana Tech, NMSU, Hawaii, BYU, Utah State, and Nevada)
2012: 1-11 (losses to Eastern Washington, BGSU, LSU, Wyoming, UNC, TXST, LT, SJSU, BYU, UTSA, and Utah State)
2013: 1-11 (losses to UNT, Wyoming, NIU, Washington State, Fresno State, stAte, Ole Miss, TXST, ODU, FSU, and NMSU)
2014: 1-10 (losses to ULM, WMU, Ohio, USA, TXST, GS, stAte, SDSU, Troy, and App)
2015: 4-8 (losses to Ohio, USC, GS, stAte, NMSU, USA, App, and Auburn)
2016 (so far): 4-3 (losses to Washington, Washington State, and Troy)

UL-Lafayette
2010: 3-9 (losses to Georgia, MTSU, OSU, Troy, WKU, Ohio, Ole Miss, FAU, and FIU)
2011: 1-4 (losses to OSU, WKU, stAte, and Arizona) [8 wins vacated, including bowl win]
2012: 5-4 (losses to OSU, UNT, stAte, and Florida) [4 wins vacated]
2013: 1-4 (losses to Arkansas, Kansas State, ULM, and USA) [8 wins vacated]
2014: 7-4 (losses to LT, Ole Miss, Boise State, and App State) [2 wins vacated]
2015: 4-8 (losses to UK, Akron, LT, stAte, USA, NMSU, App, and Troy)
2016 (so far): 2-4 (losses to Boise State, Tulane, NMSU, and App)

UL-Monroe
2010: 5-7 (losses to Arkansas, stAte, Auburn, MTSU, FIU, LSU, and ULL)
2011: 4-8 (losses to FSU, TCU, Iowa, stAte, UNT, WKU, ULL, and FIU)
2012: 8-5 (losses to Auburn, Baylor, ULL, stAte, and Ohio)
2013: 6-6 (losses to Oklahoma, Baylor, Tulane, WKU, stAte, and USA)
2014: 4-7 (losses to LSU, stAte, UK, TXST, Texas A&M, App, and ULL)
2015: 2-11 (losses to UGA, Alabama, GS, Tulsa, App, Idaho, ULL, Troy, stAte, TXST, and Hawaii)
2016 (so far): 2-4 (losses to Oklahoma, GS, Auburn, and Idaho)

New Mexico State (I know these guys don't really matter, as they are on their way out, but for perception sake)
2010: 2-10 (losses to SDSU, UTEP, Kansas, Boise State, Fresno State, Idaho, Utah State, LT, Nevada, and Hawaii)
2011: 4-9 (losses to Ohio, UTEP, SJSU, Hawaii, Nevada, UGA, BYU, LT, and Utah State)
2012: 1-11 (losses to Ohio, UTEP, NM, UTSA, Idaho, Utah State, LT, Auburn, SJSU, BYU, and TXST)
2013: 2-10 (losses to Texas, Minnesota, UTEP, UCLA, SDSU, NM, Rice, ULL, Boston College, and FAU)
2014: 2-10 (losses to UTEP, NM, LSU, GS, Troy, Idaho, TXST, ULL, ULM, and stAte)
2015: 3-9 (losses to Florida, GSU, UTEP, NM, Ole Miss, GS, Troy, stAte, and ULM)
2016 (so far): 2-4 (losses to UTEP, UK, Troy, and Idaho)

South Alabama
2010: 10-0 (no losses)
2011: 6-4 (losses to NC State, Kent State, GSU, and Cal Poly)
2012: 2-11 (losses to UTSA, NCSU, Mississippi State, Troy, stAte, ULM, FIU, UNT, MTSU, ULL, and Hawaii)
2013: 6-6 (losses to Southern Utah, UTK, Troy, TXST, stAte, and Navy)
2014: 6-7 (losses to Mississippi State, GS, ULL, stAte, USC, Navy, and BGSU)
2015: 5-7 (losses to Nebraska, NCSU, stAte, TXST, GS, GSU, and App)
2016 (so far): 3-3 (losses to GS, ULL, and stAte)

Texas State
2010: 4-7 (losses to Houston, Southeastern Louisiana, Nicholls State, Northwestern State, Central Arkansas, McNeese State, and SHSU)
2011: 6-6 (losses to Texas Tech, Wyoming, Southeastern Louisiana, Northwestern State, Central Arkansas, and SHSU)
2012: 4-8 (losses to Texas Tech, Nevada, NM, SJSU, Utah State, LT, Navy, and UTSA)
2013: 6-6 (losses to Texas Tech, ULL, ULM, stAte, WKU, and Troy)
2014: 7-5 (losses to Navy, Illinois, ULL, GS, and USA)
2015: 3-9 (losses to FSU, USM, Houston, ULL, GS, NMSU, GSU, Idaho, and stAte)
2016 (so far): 2-4 (losses to Arkansas, Houston, GS, and ULM)

Troy
2010: 8-5 (losses to OSU, UAB, ULM, FIU, and USC)
2011: 3-9 (losses to Clemson, Arkansas, ULL, ULM, FIU, Navy, UNT, WKU, and stAte)
2012: 5-7 (losses to ULL, Mississippi State, WKU, FAU, UTK, stAte, and MTSU)
2013: 6-6 (losses to stAte, Mississippi State, Duke, ULM, ULL, and Ole Miss)
2014: 3-9 (losses to UAB, Duke, Abilene Christian, UGA, ULM, App, USA, GS, and ULL)
2015: 4-8 (losses to NCSU, Wisconsin, USA, Mississippi State, Idaho, App, GS, and GSU)
2016 (so far): 5-1 (losses to Clemson)

Coastal Carolina
2010: 6-6 (losses to WVU, Towson, GS, Richmond, Stony Brook, and Western Illinois)
2011: 7-4 (losses to UGA, Liberty, Gardner-Webb, and Stony Brook)
2012: 8-5 (losses to Eastern Kentucky, Toledo, App, Stony Brook, and ODU)
2013: 12-3 (losses to Charleston Southern, USC, and NDSU)
2014: 12-2 (losses to Liberty and NDSU)
2015: 9-3 (losses to Charleston Southern, Liberty, and The Citadel)
2016 (so far): 4-2 (losses to Jacksonville State and Charleston Southern)

So, of these 72 seasons, only 26 of them were winning seasons, meaning each team had more wins than they did losses. While you could take away any team that was not a part of the Sun Belt during that span of 2010-2016, including (at different times) App, GS, GSU, CCU, Idaho, NMST, TXST, and USA, each of these teams is important in regards to the perception of the conference. When a conference has members that regularly lose, what does that do to the perception?

At this rate, I question if the Sun Belt can hold together in the long term if losing continues to be a tradition across much of the board. What are your thoughts?

[HighlandsApp]

I would think that the MAC looks similar. Sun Belt teams need to be at and hopefully above 50-50 against MAC and CUSA. I think that is possible. Best option is Belt and CUSA realign and make travel easier and therefore lower expenses. We need to be playing Charlotte, ODU, Marshall and Mid Tenn in addition to our current conference foes of GaSt, GaSo, Troy, Coastal and USA for easy drive rivalry games. TV markets did not work for CUSA.

[AtlAppMan]

Did you do the same for every G5 conference? It is a fact that SBC is on the low end of the FBS pecking order and on reason is on field performance. P5 w/l percentage should be better than G5 as a whole. Within G5 I would expect AAC at top then MWC then MAC/CUSA/SBC at bottom.

This is no surprise to me but the big boys will always need a weaker opponent to fill the schedule so G5 is needed.

[Yosef84]

This appears to be yet another discussion of the quality of Sunbelt football. I don't know why "sustaining" would be a concern, since I've never seen a conference fail simply because of poor football. One could argue that the WAC did, but it failed to sustain because of the top programs being raided and being geographically distant from potential replacement programs. I don't think "sustaining" is an issue. In fact, I believe the overall quality of SBC football is improving, especially the bottom half. OOC performance this year is better than last.

App and GS add strength at the top. GS is "down" this year (by their standards) but they are still a solid team and gave Georgia Tech a tougher game than most expected after a disappointing loss to Arkansas State.

Arkansas State is infuriating in that they continue to squander the OOC games and take 4 or 5 weeks to find their legs before finally playing like a good team. They desperately need to hire someone who can light a fire during Fall camp but they remain a solid overall program.

ULL has been down for a couple of seasons but they have a solid program history and all evidence is that they will be around as a "middle of the pack" team or better for a while.

South Alabama is schizophrenic and looks like world beaters one week, then gets pounded the next. I still think this is a young program on the rise and they would have similar results in the MAC, USA or MWC.

Troy has turned the corner (it certainly seems) and is a solid team. They have gone from doormat in 2014 to contender in 2016.

GSU, NMSU, Idaho and TSU are all improved over previous years. They have at least reached the level of being "dangerous" on an "any given week" basis and should not be taken for granted. Nobody is without a win and this group is trading Ws.

[EastHallApp]

I think Yosef84 hit on the key point - the question of the Sun Belt "sustaining" will likely be decided not by the current level of play, but by whether realignment in other conferences will leave it alone long enough for the current group to grow. That's been the problem in the past - the top programs get skimmed off by CUSA.

Remember this: Five of the SBC's 11 current programs have moved up to FBS since 2012. With Idaho/NMSU leaving and Coastal joining, that will soon be six of 10. That's more than half the league that's basically in its infancy as FBS programs. Of course it's going to struggle.

If this group stays in place for the next decade, I think you'll see the league improve, as they've focused on building around football programs with potential rather than simply TV markets.

Either way, I'm not sweating it, as if the league is raided again I expect we'll be among the first targets - if not THE first - for other conferences to poach.

[Saint3333]

The SBC OOC record is right there with the MAC and MWC and clearly superior to CUSA this year.