Mid Season Predictions

[311neers]

Hopefully the elder statemen had some tough discussions this week.

We lose 15 starting seniors after this year:

LT
LG
RG
RT
TE
QB
RB
DE
NT
OLB
ILB
OLB
CB
SS
CB

https://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-d ... tate/92913

Not sure how I feel about being 3-3 with 70% of our starters being seniors. The JMU (4 score lead) and Tx State losses should never happen with near 100% of our starters being upperclassmen. All the extra COVID years of eligibility have taken a toll on developing our younger guys it seems. COVID, the free portal and now NIL make for a tough consistent roster layout. Glad we have winning tradition, just hope we can sustain it!

This is NOT a unique problem for App as every other school in FBS has had to deal with every one of those issues. We have to stop using that as an excuse. That is like saying we only have 85 scholarships to give so that is why we don't have enough depth. It's all about managing the process to get the optimal outcome.

I know it's not just an App problem. The portal is different for us though. Apparently we make it hard on transfers to enroll and there are slim options once all the P5 schools scoop the stud transfers. Haha, I took the political "appease all crowds" approach instead of saying..."dang, we got 22 upperclassmen starting and still cant beat a Tx St or hold a 4 score lead on JMU". Maybe Clark/Gillin needs to hire an ex CEO for a roster manager position going forward.

[ah59396]

[WVAPPeer]

Seriously, have you guys watched other college football this season? - it is just about crazy everywhere --- you just can't say anymore that we should beat anyone FBS - the playing field is as level as it has ever been - TN hadn't beaten Bama in 15 years, #5 Texas A&M loses to APP and then beats ranked Miami and Arkansas, Marshall beats ND, GaSo beats Nebraska, Syracuse is undefeated, ND has 3 losses already, not halfway thru for some teams and we only have 9 undefeated teams and that is going to go down weekly as undefeated teams play each other. I agree that we should never have blown the lead to JMU but it happened and you can't say that TX St or anyone else in the SBC are sure wins - Nobody is now --- Yes, this team has had some struggles but you guys quickly forget we beat the #5 on the road which led to something everyone had hoped for but never thought it would happen - COLLEGE GAMEDAY IN BOONE - And all you want to talk about is heads will roll, we might not win another game, coaches can't do the job, recruiting is sucking, players don't really care - the negativity by some is totally disheartening

[Yosef84]

Seriously, have you guys watched other college football this season? - it is just about crazy everywhere --- you just can't say anymore that we should beat anyone FBS - the playing field is as level as it has ever been - TN hadn't beaten Bama in 15 years, #5 Texas A&M loses to APP and then beats ranked Miami and Arkansas, Marshall beats ND, GaSo beats Nebraska, Syracuse is undefeated, ND has 3 losses already, not halfway thru for some teams and we only have 9 undefeated teams and that is going to go down weekly as undefeated teams play each other. I agree that we should never have blown the lead to JMU but it happened and you can't say that TX St or anyone else in the SBC are sure wins - Nobody is now --- Yes, this team has had some struggles but you guys quickly forget we beat the #5 on the road which led to something everyone had hoped for but never thought it would happen - COLLEGE GAMEDAY IN BOONE - And all you want to talk about is heads will roll, we might not win another game, coaches can't do the job, recruiting is sucking, players don't really care - the negativity by some is totally disheartening

Thank you for a great post. I hated the losses to JMU and Texas State as much as anyone, especially because of how they happened. We absolutely did not play even close to out best. That said, JMU is a good team and Texas State is not the same team that has been a joke in prior years. The transfer portal has change the landscape and teams can take leaps never seen before. TSPlayed a good game against a strong Troy team (also a transformed team). They are a factor now.

I tend to believe that App will make adjustments and finish strong. I don't think we have a lack of talent. Nothing hones focus like an unnecessary loss (or two in this case). I'm a total homer so I know it might not work out the way I want, but I until we get beat, I always believe we will show up and win.

I do think we need to adapt to incorporate the portal into our system / culture...not as the primary tool but as a reality.

[AtlAppMan]

Seriously, have you guys watched other college football this season? - it is just about crazy everywhere --- you just can't say anymore that we should beat anyone FBS - the playing field is as level as it has ever been - TN hadn't beaten Bama in 15 years, #5 Texas A&M loses to APP and then beats ranked Miami and Arkansas, Marshall beats ND, GaSo beats Nebraska, Syracuse is undefeated, ND has 3 losses already, not halfway thru for some teams and we only have 9 undefeated teams and that is going to go down weekly as undefeated teams play each other. I agree that we should never have blown the lead to JMU but it happened and you can't say that TX St or anyone else in the SBC are sure wins - Nobody is now --- Yes, this team has had some struggles but you guys quickly forget we beat the #5 on the road which led to something everyone had hoped for but never thought it would happen - COLLEGE GAMEDAY IN BOONE - And all you want to talk about is heads will roll, we might not win another game, coaches can't do the job, recruiting is sucking, players don't really care - the negativity by some is totally disheartening

I never said JMU was easy or TxSt was a sure thing BUT I am telling you that with the capability that this team has already displayed THIS year we have no excuse for losing a 25 pt lead to JMU (and then the game) and losing to TxSt the way we did.

You can rationalize it by saying Miami did this or ND did that but that is not an excuse for what OUR team did on those two days.

If you get pulled for speeding it won’t go far with Judge to say you saw other drivers speeding too.

[Saint3333]

Lost to a team up 28-3 and let a team that has never beaten us punch us in the mouth and not get up for over two quarters.

Neither “side” of this debate was a monopoly when it comes to a lack of perspective.

[WVAPPeer]

If you can't deal with what the reality that is in college football there is nothing more to say ---

[Saint3333]

Leaving in reality has been a problem on here for a long time.

[WVAPPeer]

And regarding TX St - did you see the info that they had 38 FBS transfers and others from JrC and FCS - they had nothing in common with the TX ST teams we have played in the past - Yes, APP played as about as bad first half that I can remember and Yes, we surely blew the lead against JMU - If JMU can keep Cignetti (WVU guy) and I don't think they will for long - Elon was 4-20 in conf play when he took over - both years he took them to the playoffs - 6 years with Nick Saban, he is going to be a lot ticket!!!

Reality is college football is on runaway freight train - when you have coaches like Spivital at TX ST whose job is on the line, he MUST win, "Culture?, We don't need no stinking culture", take any transfer who can play --- and that is not the only place it happens.
There is a lot to deal with in college football now, you guys know it, and I'm just hoping our staff can come up with the formula that will continue to work to insure our success.

[ah59396]

And regarding TX St - did you see the info that they had 38 FBS transfers and others from JrC and FCS - they had nothing in common with the TX ST teams we have played in the past - Yes, APP played as about as bad first half that I can remember and Yes, we surely blew the lead against JMU - If JMU can keep Cignetti (WVU guy) and I don't think they will for long - Elon was 4-20 in conf play when he took over - both years he took them to the playoffs - 6 years with Nick Saban, he is going to be a lot ticket!!!

Reality is college football is on runaway freight train - when you have coaches like Spivital at TX ST whose job is on the line, he MUST win, "Culture?, We don't need no stinking culture", take any transfer who can play --- and that is not the only place it happens.
There is a lot to deal with in college football now, you guys know it, and I'm just hoping our staff can come up with the formula that will continue to work to insure our success.

I can get behind most of what you’re saying in prior posts, but Texas State isn’t good. I’m sorry. Im unwilling to chalk that loss as a result of their portal transfers or them being different than years past. Etc.

Their wins are Houston Baptist and FIU before us. They got blown out by Baylor, Nevada and JMU. They played Troy tight the past weekend.

We have zero excuse for being down 24-3 at the half to that team. We played like shit and need to own it. We were a 20 point Vegas favorite. We forgot to show up. It happens, but let’s not pretend it’s something it’s not.

[hapapp]

And regarding TX St - did you see the info that they had 38 FBS transfers and others from JrC and FCS - they had nothing in common with the TX ST teams we have played in the past - Yes, APP played as about as bad first half that I can remember and Yes, we surely blew the lead against JMU - If JMU can keep Cignetti (WVU guy) and I don't think they will for long - Elon was 4-20 in conf play when he took over - both years he took them to the playoffs - 6 years with Nick Saban, he is going to be a lot ticket!!!

Reality is college football is on runaway freight train - when you have coaches like Spivital at TX ST whose job is on the line, he MUST win, "Culture?, We don't need no stinking culture", take any transfer who can play --- and that is not the only place it happens.
There is a lot to deal with in college football now, you guys know it, and I'm just hoping our staff can come up with the formula that will continue to work to insure our success.

Actually, Texas State has been relying on the transfer market for several years now. Perhaps, this years crew (QB and RB in particular) are making a bigger impact than some in the past.

Given our experiences at the FBS level, its not unreasonable to hold out hope that our defense will show significant improvement in the 2nd half of the season. On the other hand, looking at only FBS games this year, we are giving up more points than we are scoring. In our 3 losses we have given up more than 30 points in each game. No doubt the Sun Belt is better as both Troy and Texas State are stiffer competition than in the past. The question for me is, what have we seen thus far this year that suggests our defense will turn it around? I'm purely looking at this from an observational standpoint. I claim no expertise and offer no solutions, nor is this intended to be criticism.

[GoBoone]

I bleed black and gold….win or lose.

[asu66]

Here's some reality for us to ponder until about 10:30 Wed. night. Our coaches/players will have had 10 days to prepare for a 2-4 Ga State team that has never-ever been able to crack the win column against App in football. They stand 0-8 in their football history with us. Sooner or later, they'll pull the rug from under our team's cleats and pocket that first upset. Could Ga State be the second 0-8 team to whip App this season?

Panther head coach Shawn Elliott is a Mountaineer football alum who was also once an elite member of the App coaching staff--eventually "caving in" to one of several "no-brainer" offers coming his way from P5 programs. Now in his second HC gig, he's on the hot seat in Atlanta. Oh but wait, the Panthers picked up their only two wins in back-to-back matchups with impressive wins over Army on the road in West Point and against Ga Southern in Atlanta. Shawn and his players are well aware that a win over the Apps would get big ol' YOSEF off their backs and let the frigid KBS temps lower the heat they're getting from C.Cobb.

Our fan base is starving for an App blowout win over a Sun Belt West Div. team to prove that their earlier stumbles have been addressed. Can they do it? Of course! Will they pull it off? TBD! I'm a little gun-shy of this one. Almost a classic trap game....

One point in our favor, perhaps... is that those Ga State guys don't like cold weather. It seems that about every time they've played in KBS, it has occurred during a sudden cold snap and/or in a snow storm.

Temps in KBS at half-time Wednesday evening will be approaching "hard freeze" territory! Advantage...Apps!

[t4pizza]

MY biggest concern so far this season is that we seem to have a problem playing well against teams that are perceived (by the players) as worse that we are. I have no question that our 18-22 (plus 25 year old Chase) thought we would roll the FBS startup JMU after all we had been through up until that point, I am also sure that once we got up 28-3, our kids really believed they would continue to stomp them. I am equally sure that nobody on the team really believed that Texas State could hang with us at all, because they never have been able to. We all know what happened in both of those cases. My worry now is the Georgia State has also never beaten us, and neither has ODU. I have no question that we get up for and are ready to play Coastal, Marshall, Georgia Southern, but I worry how we show up this Wednesday and against ODU. That being said, IF we show up and beat Georgia State on Wednesday night, that we win out and play for a conference title and bowl game. That would make us 9-3 going into the title game. I would like to say we finish 11-3 but 10-4 is screaming to me just because I think that when we let off the gas after getting to the title game, especially since whoever we play from the West is bound to have a terrible record against us. IF we lose to Georgia State, I could see the wheels really come off and finish 6-6 or even 5-7 and miss a bowl. We have to start playing the way we are capable of playing.

[mike87]

My mid-season prediction? Pain. We win out, convincingly at first but have to squeak it out in the end against Southern.

In the other prediction thread....I see Mike87 making an amazing comeback after starting the season in last place to finish in the top 10.

App State's OL is beat up, Harrington is gone for the season, breaking in a new secondary who sometimes shows up in the right spots and angles but most of the time they are out of place. Have a coaching staff who under estimated JMU's front 7, then goes to Texas State without your best RB and shows up with no focus and got mauled. The script has been partially written for this team. Georgia State is going to bring it Wednesday night. They seem to know what they are doing in their secondary. ODU will smash this App State team if the front seven bites on their counters and eye candy and based on how App has been out of place this will be a beat down. Coastal will not be an easy out, and Marshall well we all know how that one could go. As far as Georgia Southern at their place. If they do not figure out how to play man to man coverage and the DL does not figure out how to play like they did at College Station, Georgia Southern will put 800 yards on that zone that Dale Jones likes to hide in. Guys I hate to say it this may be the worst season App State has seen in a while. I so want to be wrong but they are what they are. 6-6 and no bowl. Maybe by a miracle they get a bowl because of the way the fans travel and a good graduation rate. But that may be a challenge.

Bet you are a hoot at parties. I like my prediction.

Don't need to be. Its right in front of you the past 6 games.

And this past weekend should show you that none of that matters. I think we get our dog back like we had at A&M, and I like my prediction.

[AppStFan1]

MY biggest concern so far this season is that we seem to have a problem playing well against teams that are perceived (by the players) as worse that we are. I have no question that our 18-22 (plus 25 year old Chase) thought we would roll the FBS startup JMU after all we had been through up until that point, I am also sure that once we got up 28-3, our kids really believed they would continue to stomp them. I am equally sure that nobody on the team really believed that Texas State could hang with us at all, because they never have been able to. We all know what happened in both of those cases. My worry now is the Georgia State has also never beaten us, and neither has ODU. I have no question that we get up for and are ready to play Coastal, Marshall, Georgia Southern, but I worry how we show up this Wednesday and against ODU. That being said, IF we show up and beat Georgia State on Wednesday night, that we win out and play for a conference title and bowl game. That would make us 9-3 going into the title game. I would like to say we finish 11-3 but 10-4 is screaming to me just because I think that when we let off the gas after getting to the title game, especially since whoever we play from the West is bound to have a terrible record against us. IF we lose to Georgia State, I could see the wheels really come off and finish 6-6 or even 5-7 and miss a bowl. We have to start playing the way we are capable of playing.

That is why I brought up the 6-6 possibility and heads rolling. We have no excuse to lose this game with Cam Peoples back, the extended period to prepare, playing at home, and getting the wake-up call. If we don't win this game then I am with you that 6-6 or 7-5 appears likely. I believe we win comfortably in this game and make a statement, which we need to. I'm probably going to pick us by 14 or more.

[Stonewall]

We haven't blocked or tackled very well in our previous six FBS quarters.I want to see our game one blocking coupled with our game two tackling the rest of the season.

[AppStateNews]

Henni's comments on BGP are spot on. There are some me first people in the locker room and getting a lot of playing time. Hard conversations need to be had. If Clark and co have had those conversations and the players take it to heart, we win out. If not, we may finish with 5 or less wins.

At this point, it's up to the coaches to have those conversations and actually implement the team first, App State way.

Likewise, it's up to the players to adjust their attitude to get that App State mentality back. The senior leaders need to make it happen. From what I've heard, there have been a few player only meetings since Tx State and a few meetings with captains and coaches.

Obviously I'm hoping for the mentality to come back. I'll impatiently play the wait and see card.

[Appstate88]

Here’s an idea for the Head Ball Coach. We have 10 position groups. Next year, have the team select 10 leaders 1 from each position group. Meet with the 10 leaders throughout spring and summer. During the season, coaches select 3 Captains from the 10 leaders, plus one player not a designated leader to be a captain for the game and the coin toss. Reward those that do more than is expected on and off the field.

[AppStateNews]

Here’s an idea for the Head Ball Coach. We have 10 position groups. Next year, have the team select 10 leaders 1 from each position group. Meet with the 10 leaders throughout spring and summer. During the season, coaches select 3 Captains from the 10 leaders, plus one player not a designated leader to be a captain for the game and the coin toss. Reward those that do more than is expected on and off the field.

They have something like this set up already. Those positions group leaders meet multiple times a week.

I like adding an ad-hoc captain though.