Incoming recruits: Who plays, who redshirts?

[firemoose]

We also have to keep in mind the coaches are trying to balance out the recruiting classes so that we dont have 30 seniors one year and 15 the next. That should impact redshirts one way or the other.

Exactly. We will have a large group of RS freshmen playing this year. If you throw the incoming freshmen into the mix that creates a large group in four years that are leaving. I think they would like to avoid having to deal with a large group of seniors leaving the program after the 2017 season. Of course, if you have an incoming freshmen who is clearly going to contribute, he will see the field.

We'll have a much larger group of RS next year, especially if we go out of our way to RS as many as possible. By my count we only have 10 RS freshmen this year. Could be double that in 2015. And while Moose could weigh in with more authority on this question, my guess is the staff hopes to sign at or near the 25-man limit again this year.

As usual a lot of things will go into the numbers but it’s looking like somewhere in the low to mid 20’s. We have 13 roster seniors. We will lose a couple of roster RS juniors as we always do to graduation and there will be a couple of transfers or players’ leaving for various reasons as usually happens. For example, Sumler (roster Jr but school Sr) has made no secret on twitter that he believes this is his last year here. We’ll see but if he has a good, complete season and stays healthy I expect him to declare. We had 3-4 left over from last year’s class plus Covington, Millhouse, and Brown leaving. One was used to give Critcher a deserved ride and one was used for Jaylen Barbour which means we’ll just be taking one less WR this class in exchange. I’m expecting 22-23 but that number is fluid and could easily reach 24-25. The only way I see it going less is if we lose out on some players at the last minute. As a side note we currently have 23 roster juniors. As said we’ll lose a few but in seniors alone next year I would expect to have 18-20 spots. And as said the classes behind them are even bigger. We’ve got some work to do to get the roster balanced but that always happens to move ups and they are working on it. It’s just going to take some time to get us in the zone.

[AUHornet]

We also have to keep in mind the coaches are trying to balance out the recruiting classes so that we dont have 30 seniors one year and 15 the next. That should impact redshirts one way or the other.

Exactly. We will have a large group of RS freshmen playing this year. If you throw the incoming freshmen into the mix that creates a large group in four years that are leaving. I think they would like to avoid having to deal with a large group of seniors leaving the program after the 2017 season. Of course, if you have an incoming freshmen who is clearly going to contribute, he will see the field.

We'll have a much larger group of RS next year, especially if we go out of our way to RS as many as possible. By my count we only have 10 RS freshmen this year. Could be double that in 2015. And while Moose could weigh in with more authority on this question, my guess is the staff hopes to sign at or near the 25-man limit again this year.

As usual a lot of things will go into the numbers but it’s looking like somewhere in the low to mid 20’s. We have 13 roster seniors. We will lose a couple of roster RS juniors as we always do to graduation and there will be a couple of transfers or players’ leaving for various reasons as usually happens. For example, Sumler (roster Jr but school Sr) has made no secret on twitter that he believes this is his last year here. We’ll see but if he has a good, complete season and stays healthy I expect him to declare. We had 3-4 left over from last year’s class plus Covington, Millhouse, and Brown leaving. One was used to give Critcher a deserved ride and one was used for Jaylen Barbour which means we’ll just be taking one less WR this class in exchange. I’m expecting 22-23 but that number is fluid and could easily reach 24-25. The only way I see it going less is if we lose out on some players at the last minute. As a side note we currently have 23 roster juniors. As said we’ll lose a few but in seniors alone next year I would expect to have 18-20 spots. And as said the classes behind them are even bigger. We’ve got some work to do to get the roster balanced but that always happens to move ups and they are working on it. It’s just going to take some time to get us in the zone.

As always great insight Moose - thanks for crunching the numbers. I was curious to see if we had a "bubble" in numbers in the coming years.

[APPARJ]

These coaches are not thinking long term as some of you are suggesting. They have even suggested to some of the players that they feel the pressure to win this year more than last, even though it is a transitional year.

I would also like to know which of the true freshmen have come in physically ready to go at the FBS level. I don't know how much input that the s&c coach has, but I'm sure the staff is monitoring what is going on in the weight room.
I'm sure there will be a couple of dark-horses that enter the picture when camp gets going. Don't be surprised to see a player or two come in and light it up from the start. OL would be the least expected to avoid a redshirt IMO.

I love this anonymous inside info.

Saying that these coaches aren't thinking long term, to me, is ignorant. Of course they feel pressure to win. The App State faithful should have high (albeit sometimes irrationally high) standards for winning.

But correcting 3-4 years of complacency in recruiting and personnel is not quickly or easily suffered. Based on what I've seen and heard, this staff has a mindset to do whatever it takes to make sure this program is successful for a long time. Some of that means winning today and some of it means planning and spreading resources out for the future.

Until I see trends saying otherwise, I am very confident in the direction of our program, even after a rocky 4-8 last year.

It seems as though some forget that football is a career for these coaches. Not a hobby.

[EastHallApp]

We also have to keep in mind the coaches are trying to balance out the recruiting classes so that we dont have 30 seniors one year and 15 the next. That should impact redshirts one way or the other.

Exactly. We will have a large group of RS freshmen playing this year. If you throw the incoming freshmen into the mix that creates a large group in four years that are leaving. I think they would like to avoid having to deal with a large group of seniors leaving the program after the 2017 season. Of course, if you have an incoming freshmen who is clearly going to contribute, he will see the field.

We'll have a much larger group of RS next year, especially if we go out of our way to RS as many as possible. By my count we only have 10 RS freshmen this year. Could be double that in 2015. And while Moose could weigh in with more authority on this question, my guess is the staff hopes to sign at or near the 25-man limit again this year.

As usual a lot of things will go into the numbers but it’s looking like somewhere in the low to mid 20’s. We have 13 roster seniors. We will lose a couple of roster RS juniors as we always do to graduation and there will be a couple of transfers or players’ leaving for various reasons as usually happens. For example, Sumler (roster Jr but school Sr) has made no secret on twitter that he believes this is his last year here. We’ll see but if he has a good, complete season and stays healthy I expect him to declare. We had 3-4 left over from last year’s class plus Covington, Millhouse, and Brown leaving. One was used to give Critcher a deserved ride and one was used for Jaylen Barbour which means we’ll just be taking one less WR this class in exchange. I’m expecting 22-23 but that number is fluid and could easily reach 24-25. The only way I see it going less is if we lose out on some players at the last minute. As a side note we currently have 23 roster juniors. As said we’ll lose a few but in seniors alone next year I would expect to have 18-20 spots. And as said the classes behind them are even bigger. We’ve got some work to do to get the roster balanced but that always happens to move ups and they are working on it. It’s just going to take some time to get us in the zone.

Thanks, appreciate the breakdown.

Actually brings a question to mind: Would it be possible to provide a roster breakdown (maybe by class) of scholarship players? As if you aren't busy enough, I know...

I'm just interested in this sort of info, and the official roster isn't really helpful in this regard because it includes all the walk-ons.

[Rick0714]

I know a lot of people here are saying that we could/will see true freshmen on the o-line. It's possible, but highly unlikely. The o-line is the unit that has to work together more than any other. It would be the hardest position to break into as a freshman. The line we had last year was not the best, no doubt, but it will take some time for the newcomers to learn reads, positions and responsibilities. In addition, one of the former starters or back-ups could reach the point where it "hits" as well. I've coached an o-line and trained college-bound players for almost two decades after playing at App. Talent in the trenches is only part of the formula. I have seen some of the most talented lineman never see the field much because that can't grasp a system or scheme. We have some very talented players on the roster and coming in, we will have to see how it pans out on who picks things up the quickest. Someone used Dj Smith as an example of a talented freshman who took a few games to become a starter. That is a good example of a guy with tons of talent, but it just takes a little while to pick it all up. Now, with more limits on practice time than when I was in school, it makes it even more difficult.

[Saint3333]

DJ Smith was also extremely smart, coaches loved his football IQ as well.

He was also one of the few recruits to hold an ACC offer to come to App during the FCS days.

[firemoose]

Thanks, appreciate the breakdown.

Actually brings a question to mind: Would it be possible to provide a roster breakdown (maybe by class) of scholarship players? As if you aren't busy enough, I know...

I'm just interested in this sort of info, and the official roster isn't really helpful in this regard because it includes all the walk-ons.

I can get pretty close but it will take a little time, especially with, surprisingly enough, the later classes, simply because it wasn't really talked about much as to exactly who and how many we gave out to get to our numbers the first year. The days of PWO's and regular walk-ons getting full rides are done unless they just blow up like Critcher did this past season. They are truly going to have to play their way into one. There are still some options for helping some players but with no more partials players have to earn it. I can cover most by saying look at the signees from each of the last classes (those names are available on the recruiting sites). Anyone who signed a LOI is a scholarship player. That will remove a chunk out of the list. Also most of our recent transfers were scholarship players but not all. I already know most of those. But I'll need to look at the rest and see who I'm sure got a ship after walking on (Alex Acey is an example, Critcher for this year) and see which names jump out to me. I'll cut it down as much as possible and then will start checking on the rest. As I said it might take a couple of days to get close with the other things I'm doing but I'll work on it for you.

[JTApps1]

I know a lot of people here are saying that we could/will see true freshmen on the o-line. It's possible, but highly unlikely. The o-line is the unit that has to work together more than any other. It would be the hardest position to break into as a freshman. The line we had last year was not the best, no doubt, but it will take some time for the newcomers to learn reads, positions and responsibilities. In addition, one of the former starters or back-ups could reach the point where it "hits" as well. I've coached an o-line and trained college-bound players for almost two decades after playing at App. Talent in the trenches is only part of the formula. I have seen some of the most talented lineman never see the field much because that can't grasp a system or scheme. We have some very talented players on the roster and coming in, we will have to see how it pans out on who picks things up the quickest. Someone used Dj Smith as an example of a talented freshman who took a few games to become a starter. That is a good example of a guy with tons of talent, but it just takes a little while to pick it all up. Now, with more limits on practice time than when I was in school, it makes it even more difficult.

While all of that is true it is still possible. Mario Acitelli (sorry if I butchered the spelling) came in and started from day 1 so it has happened at ASU before. That being said I think the RS from last year will fill the void.