Week 1 P5 Scalps On The Line

[ericsaid]

I only see three.
UMass
Utah St
Fresno St

No Boise State? Taggart teams haven't been good since he was at Oregon. Beginning to thing what happened there last season isn't a one off but a trend.

Nope. Boise is breaking in a new QB and RB. Flying cross country to play in what looks to be a rainy, soggy field. Taggert wasn’t at Oregon long enough to make any changes. He inherited a bunch of bad seeds when he got to Tallahassee and had to clean house. I went to the FSU s-ring game and they looked much improved.

So are you take FSU and the points? Seems like a small spread to be a game that is heavily favored in FSU's way. I'm also at the point where picking against Boise State is almost always the wrong decision. This goes back to the Fiesta Bowl, through playing Oregon with Blount, then their Las Vegas bowl win over Oregon again, a couple more BCS Bowls.

Boise may be breaking in a few new players but Florida State may still be looking for their rhythm. Maybe they find it early in the season, maybe they wait until Week 7, like App in Satt's second full season? Maybe a game to stay away from betting on in general.

I would not put money on this game. There are better options. A good rule of thumb is, if you can make a case for the underdog to win the game, then you take the points. I can’t do that with Boise. New QB making his first start against the fastest and best defense that he is going to face all year. Plus it is cross country in bad weather. FSU has a solid running game and a good QB.

Update: The game is now in Tallahassee.

Well, I won that bet but lost the war. (I only do parlay bets because my bankroll isn't large enough to make cash on single game bets)

Also had a four game parlay consisting of Georgia State winning, MTSU covering +25.5, LSU at -27.0, and....OREGON winning, at +140 moneyline.

I just dropped my phone and walked away when Auburn scored that touchdown. Of all the things that had to go right, that shouldn't have, to even be in a position for Oregon to let up, is astounding.

Two things to remember: don't bet against Boise or NDSU P5's.

[falcoapp]

No Boise State? Taggart teams haven't been good since he was at Oregon. Beginning to thing what happened there last season isn't a one off but a trend.

Nope. Boise is breaking in a new QB and RB. Flying cross country to play in what looks to be a rainy, soggy field. Taggert wasn’t at Oregon long enough to make any changes. He inherited a bunch of bad seeds when he got to Tallahassee and had to clean house. I went to the FSU s-ring game and they looked much improved.

So are you take FSU and the points? Seems like a small spread to be a game that is heavily favored in FSU's way. I'm also at the point where picking against Boise State is almost always the wrong decision. This goes back to the Fiesta Bowl, through playing Oregon with Blount, then their Las Vegas bowl win over Oregon again, a couple more BCS Bowls.

Boise may be breaking in a few new players but Florida State may still be looking for their rhythm. Maybe they find it early in the season, maybe they wait until Week 7, like App in Satt's second full season? Maybe a game to stay away from betting on in general.

I would not put money on this game. There are better options. A good rule of thumb is, if you can make a case for the underdog to win the game, then you take the points. I can’t do that with Boise. New QB making his first start against the fastest and best defense that he is going to face all year. Plus it is cross country in bad weather. FSU has a solid running game and a good QB.

Update: The game is now in Tallahassee.

Well, I won that bet but lost the war. (I only do parlay bets because my bankroll isn't large enough to make cash on single game bets)

Also had a four game parlay consisting of Georgia State winning, MTSU covering +25.5, LSU at -27.0, and....OREGON winning, at +140 moneyline.

I just dropped my phone and walked away when Auburn scored that touchdown. Of all the things that had to go right, that shouldn't have, to even be in a position for Oregon to let up, is astounding.

Two things to remember: don't bet against Boise or NDSU P5's.

Why didn't you just bet 4 straight bets? I assume this was a $10-$50 parlay bet.

[AppSt94]

Damn! That’s a tough way to lose. When I used to bet on football, I would tend to stay away from parlays. Too many things need to go right for you to win. As for the games that you put your money on, we clearly have different perspectives. I would never have laid money on Boise and MTSU. Laying money on team with a new QB is like placing a max bet on the first round of Blackjack from a new shoe.

Your not asking, but allow me to give you a free piece of advice on gambling. If you like picking and get a greater satisfaction from being right over winning money, then stay disciplined with smaller bets on single games. Back in 2001, I was missing on every bowl game. I was so pissed about it, I made a last minute $500 bet on the Fiesta Bowl. I took Oregon St. minus 3 over Notre Dame. I won, and ended up making rolling up 3 more bets after that to finish with almost $800 dollars gain. I realized at that point that my ego could have cost me a lot of money and I stopped My point is, noting wrong with building your roll slow. Your not me. Just wanted to give you a cautionary tale.

[ericsaid]

Nope. Boise is breaking in a new QB and RB. Flying cross country to play in what looks to be a rainy, soggy field. Taggert wasn’t at Oregon long enough to make any changes. He inherited a bunch of bad seeds when he got to Tallahassee and had to clean house. I went to the FSU s-ring game and they looked much improved.

So are you take FSU and the points? Seems like a small spread to be a game that is heavily favored in FSU's way. I'm also at the point where picking against Boise State is almost always the wrong decision. This goes back to the Fiesta Bowl, through playing Oregon with Blount, then their Las Vegas bowl win over Oregon again, a couple more BCS Bowls.

Boise may be breaking in a few new players but Florida State may still be looking for their rhythm. Maybe they find it early in the season, maybe they wait until Week 7, like App in Satt's second full season? Maybe a game to stay away from betting on in general.

I would not put money on this game. There are better options. A good rule of thumb is, if you can make a case for the underdog to win the game, then you take the points. I can’t do that with Boise. New QB making his first start against the fastest and best defense that he is going to face all year. Plus it is cross country in bad weather. FSU has a solid running game and a good QB.

Update: The game is now in Tallahassee.

Well, I won that bet but lost the war. (I only do parlay bets because my bankroll isn't large enough to make cash on single game bets)

Also had a four game parlay consisting of Georgia State winning, MTSU covering +25.5, LSU at -27.0, and....OREGON winning, at +140 moneyline.

I just dropped my phone and walked away when Auburn scored that touchdown. Of all the things that had to go right, that shouldn't have, to even be in a position for Oregon to let up, is astounding.

Two things to remember: don't bet against Boise or NDSU P5's.

Why didn't you just bet 4 straight bets? I assume this was a $10-$50 parlay bet.

If I had a $1,000 + bankroll to work with i would do more straight bets. But I watch a lot of football (most of my day is spent watching and researching college, pro margins are too slim for me) and there are enough games to find value in each week.

I won $300 this weekend with a net of +$150 so I'll get to the $1,000 mark eventually. You are correct about the parlay risk amount as well.

[ericsaid]

Damn! That’s a tough way to lose. When I used to bet on football, I would tend to stay away from parlays. Too many things need to go right for you to win. As for the games that you put your money on, we clearly have different perspectives. I would never have laid money on Boise and MTSU. Laying money on team with a new QB is like placing a max bet on the first round of Blackjack from a new shoe.

Your not asking, but allow me to give you a free piece of advice on gambling. If you like picking and get a greater satisfaction from being right over winning money, then stay disciplined with smaller bets on single games. Back in 2001, I was missing on every bowl game. I was so pissed about it, I made a last minute $500 bet on the Fiesta Bowl. I took Oregon St. minus 3 over Notre Dame. I won, and ended up making rolling up 3 more bets after that to finish with almost $800 dollars gain. I realized at that point that my ego could have cost me a lot of money and I stopped My point is, noting wrong with building your roll slow. Your not me. Just wanted to give you a cautionary tale.

Thanks for the advice. There is so much information out there it's hard to cut through the noise. That specific parlay wasn't my only bet of the weekend and was more of a Hail Mary, as you suggested. I made a live bet on Georgia State at halftime, liked the odds of MTSU when I realised Michigan would be breaking in a new offense, wanted to bet against Auburn (true freshman QB against Oregon who was supposed to be better than 21 points in that game), and LSU topping Southern by 27+ seemed logical enough. Not a great value play by any means. However when I make a parlay like that I'm usually only going to lay down $10. It can be covered easy by single bets but the reward, however unlikely, is worthwhile. See people spend much more money on that doing scratch offs and lottery with exponentially worse odds (makes no sense to me).

Working on some statistical models using Power Query and Mini tab, Watching a lot of football, etc. I don't play with money I don't have so if I go to zero, I'll restart at $20 and go from there.

[ericsaid]

Damn! That’s a tough way to lose. When I used to bet on football, I would tend to stay away from parlays. Too many things need to go right for you to win. As for the games that you put your money on, we clearly have different perspectives. I would never have laid money on Boise and MTSU. Laying money on team with a new QB is like placing a max bet on the first round of Blackjack from a new shoe.

Your not asking, but allow me to give you a free piece of advice on gambling. If you like picking and get a greater satisfaction from being right over winning money, then stay disciplined with smaller bets on single games. Back in 2001, I was missing on every bowl game. I was so pissed about it, I made a last minute $500 bet on the Fiesta Bowl. I took Oregon St. minus 3 over Notre Dame. I won, and ended up making rolling up 3 more bets after that to finish with almost $800 dollars gain. I realized at that point that my ego could have cost me a lot of money and I stopped My point is, noting wrong with building your roll slow. Your not me. Just wanted to give you a cautionary tale.

Two things I also have learned: never bet against Boise State (they win 9 to 11 games a year on average, that gives you great value picks), and never pick in favor of a Willie Taggart coached team. Taggart will find himself leading a FCS team or as a position coach lifer soon.